Given observed data and a probabilistic generative model, Bayesian inference searches for the distribution of the model's parameters that could have yielded the data. Inference is challenging for large population studies where millions of measurements are performed over a cohort of hundreds of subjects, resulting in a massive parameter space. This large cardinality renders off-the-shelf Variational Inference (VI) computationally impractical. In this work, we design structured VI families that efficiently tackle large population studies. Our main idea is to share the parameterization and learning across the different i.i.d. variables in a generative model, symbolized by the model's \textit{plates}. We name this concept \textit{plate amortization}. Contrary to off-the-shelf stochastic VI, which slows down inference, plate amortization results in orders of magnitude faster to train variational distributions. Applied to large-scale hierarchical problems, PAVI yields expressive, parsimoniously parameterized VI with an affordable training time. This faster convergence effectively unlocks inference in those large regimes. We illustrate the practical utility of PAVI through a challenging Neuroimaging example featuring 400 million latent parameters, demonstrating a significant step towards scalable and expressive Variational Inference.

Real-world software applications must constantly evolve to remain relevant. This evolution occurs when developing new applications or adapting existing ones to meet new requirements, make corrections, or incorporate future functionality. Traditional methods of software quality control involve software quality models and continuous code inspection tools. These measures focus on directly assessing the quality of the software. However, there is a strong correlation and causation between the quality of the development process and the resulting software product. Therefore, improving the development process indirectly improves the software product, too. To achieve this, effective learning from past processes is necessary, often embraced through post mortem organizational learning. While qualitative evaluation of large artifacts is common, smaller quantitative changes captured by application lifecycle management are often overlooked. In addition to software metrics, these smaller changes can reveal complex phenomena related to project culture and management. Leveraging these changes can help detect and address such complex issues. Software evolution was previously measured by the size of changes, but the lack of consensus on a reliable and versatile quantification method prevents its use as a dependable metric. Different size classifications fail to reliably describe the nature of evolution. While application lifecycle management data is rich, identifying which artifacts can model detrimental managerial practices remains uncertain. Approaches such as simulation modeling, discrete events simulation, or Bayesian networks have only limited ability to exploit continuous-time process models of such phenomena. Even worse, the accessibility and mechanistic insight into such gray- or black-box models are typically very low. To address these challenges, we suggest leveraging objectively [...]

Commonly adopted in the manufacturing and aerospace sectors, digital twin (DT) platforms are increasingly seen as a promising paradigm to control, monitor, and analyze software-based, "open", communication systems. Notably, DT platforms provide a sandbox in which to test artificial intelligence (AI) solutions for communication systems, potentially reducing the need to collect data and test algorithms in the field, i.e., on the physical twin (PT). A key challenge in the deployment of DT systems is to ensure that virtual control optimization, monitoring, and analysis at the DT are safe and reliable, avoiding incorrect decisions caused by "model exploitation". To address this challenge, this paper presents a general Bayesian framework with the aim of quantifying and accounting for model uncertainty at the DT that is caused by limitations in the amount and quality of data available at the DT from the PT. In the proposed framework, the DT builds a Bayesian model of the communication system, which is leveraged to enable core DT functionalities such as control via multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), monitoring of the PT for anomaly detection, prediction, data-collection optimization, and counterfactual analysis. To exemplify the application of the proposed framework, we specifically investigate a case-study system encompassing multiple sensing devices that report to a common receiver. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian framework as compared to standard frequentist model-based solutions.

Identifying causality is a challenging task in many data-intensive scenarios. Many algorithms have been proposed for this critical task. However, most of them consider the learning algorithms for directed acyclic graph (DAG) of Bayesian network (BN). These BN-based models only have limited causal explainability because of the issue of Markov equivalence class. Moreover, they are dependent on the assumption of stationarity, whereas many sampling time series from complex system are nonstationary. The nonstationary time series bring dataset shift problem, which leads to the unsatisfactory performances of these algorithms. To fill these gaps, a novel causation model named Unique Causal Network (UCN) is proposed in this paper. Different from the previous BN-based models, UCN considers the influence of time delay, and proves the uniqueness of obtained network structure, which addresses the issue of Markov equivalence class. Furthermore, based on the decomposability property of UCN, a higher-order causal entropy (HCE) algorithm is designed to identify the structure of UCN in a distributed way. HCE algorithm measures the strength of causality by using nearest-neighbors entropy estimator, which works well on nonstationary time series. Finally, lots of experiments validate that HCE algorithm achieves state-of-the-art accuracy when time series are nonstationary, compared to the other baseline algorithms.

Inhomogeneous Poisson process data defined on a continuous spatio-temporal domain has attracted immense attention recently in a wide variety of applications, including reliability analysis in manufacturing systems (Soleimani et al, 2017), event capture in sensing regions (Mutny and Krause, 2021), crime prediction in urban area (Shirota and Gelfand, 2017) and disease diagnosis based on medical records (Lasko, 2014). The reliable training of an inhomogeneous Poisson process model critically relies on a large amount of data to avoid overfitting, especially when modeling high-dimensional point processes. However, one challenge is that the available training data is routinely sparse or even partially missing in specific applications. Taking manufacturing failure and healthcare analysis as motivating examples: the modern manufacturing machines are reliable and sparsely fail; the individuals with healthy constitution will not visit hospital very often. The data missing problems also arise, e.g., the event location capture is intermittent for sensing systems because of weather or other related barriers.

We consider random forests and LASSO methods for model-based small area estimation when the number of areas with sampled data is a small fraction of the total areas for which estimates are required. Abundant auxiliary information is available for the sampled areas, from the survey, and for all areas, from an exterior source, and the goal is to use auxiliary variables to predict the outcome of interest. We compare areallevel random forests and LASSO approaches to a frequentist forward variable selection approach and a Bayesian shrinkage method. This work is motivated by Ghanaian data available from the sixth Living Standard Survey (GLSS) and the 2010 Population and Housing Census. We estimate the areal mean household log consumption using both datasets. The outcome variable is measured only in the GLSS for 3% of all the areas (136 out of 5019) and more than 170 potential covariates are available from both datasets. Among the four modelling methods considered, the Bayesian shrinkage performed the best in terms of bias, MSE and prediction interval coverages and scores, as assessed through a cross-validation study. We find substantial between-area variation, the log consumption areal point estimates showing a 1.3-fold variation across the GAMA region. The western areas are the poorest while the Accra Metropolitan Area district gathers the richest areas. In 2015, the United Nations (UN) released their 2030 agenda for sustainable development goals (SDGs) consisting of 17 goals, the first of which was to end poverty worldwide (Resolution, General Assembly and others, 2015). For their first SDG, the UN made seven guidelines explicit, including the implementation of "poverty eradication policies" at a disaggregated level. To that end, producing reliable and fine-grained pictures of socioeconomic status and income inequality is fundamental to help decision makers prioritise and target certain areas. These detailed maps help local communities understand their situation compared to their neighbours, which also helps when planning interventions (Bedi et al., 2007). In Ghana, household surveys are collected every few years to measure the living conditions of households across Ghanaian regions and districts and to monitor poverty.

Inverse problems arise anywhere we have indirect measurement. As, in general they are ill-posed, to obtain satisfactory solutions for them needs prior knowledge. Classically, different regularization methods and Bayesian inference based methods have been proposed. As these methods need a great number of forward and backward computations, they become costly in computation, in particular, when the forward or generative models are complex and the evaluation of the likelihood becomes very costly. Using Deep Neural Network surrogate models and approximate computation can become very helpful. However, accounting for the uncertainties, we need first understand the Bayesian Deep Learning and then, we can see how we can use them for inverse problems. In this work, we focus on NN, DL and more specifically the Bayesian DL particularly adapted for inverse problems. We first give details of Bayesian DL approximate computations with exponential families, then we will see how we can use them for inverse problems. We consider two cases: First the case where the forward operator is known and used as physics constraint, the second more general data driven DL methods. keyword: Neural Network, Variational Bayesian inference, Bayesian Deep Learning (DL), Inverse problems, Physics based DL.

The distribution regression problem encompasses many important statistics and machine learning tasks, and arises in a large range of applications. Among various existing approaches to tackle this problem, kernel methods have become a method of choice. Indeed, kernel distribution regression is both computationally favorable, and supported by a recent learning theory. This theory also tackles the two-stage sampling setting, where only samples from the input distributions are available. In this paper, we improve the learning theory of kernel distribution regression. We address kernels based on Hilbertian embeddings, that encompass most, if not all, of the existing approaches. We introduce the novel near-unbiased condition on the Hilbertian embeddings, that enables us to provide new error bounds on the effect of the two-stage sampling, thanks to a new analysis. We show that this near-unbiased condition holds for three important classes of kernels, based on optimal transport and mean embedding. As a consequence, we strictly improve the existing convergence rates for these kernels. Our setting and results are illustrated by numerical experiments.

In images collected by astronomical surveys, stars and galaxies often overlap visually. Deblending is the task of distinguishing and characterizing individual light sources in survey images. We propose StarNet, a Bayesian method to deblend sources in astronomical images of crowded star fields. StarNet leverages recent advances in variational inference, including amortized variational distributions and an optimization objective targeting an expectation of the forward KL divergence. In our experiments with SDSS images of the M2 globular cluster, StarNet is substantially more accurate than two competing methods: Probabilistic Cataloging (PCAT), a method that uses MCMC for inference, and DAOPHOT, a software pipeline employed by SDSS for deblending. In addition, the amortized approach to inference gives StarNet the scaling characteristics necessary to perform Bayesian inference on modern astronomical surveys.

We study a class of Gaussian processes for which the posterior mean, for a particular choice of data, replicates a truncated Taylor expansion of any order. The data consist of derivative evaluations at the expansion point and the prior covariance kernel belongs to the class of Taylor kernels, which can be written in a certain power series form. We discuss and prove some results on maximum likelihood estimation of parameters of Taylor kernels. The proposed framework is a special case of Gaussian process regression based on data that is orthogonal in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space of the covariance kernel.