Privacy-preserving crowd density analysis finds application across a wide range of scenarios, substantially enhancing smart building operation and management while upholding privacy expectations in various spaces. We propose a non-speech audio-based approach for crowd analytics, leveraging a transformer-based model. Our results demonstrate that non-speech audio alone can be used to conduct such analysis with remarkable accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time when non-speech audio signals are proposed for predicting occupancy. As far as we know, there has been no other similar approach of its kind prior to this. To accomplish this, we deployed our sensor-based platform in the waiting room of a large hospital with IRB approval over a period of several months to capture non-speech audio and thermal images for the training and evaluation of our models. The proposed non-speech-based approach outperformed the thermal camera-based model and all other baselines. In addition to demonstrating superior performance without utilizing speech audio, we conduct further analysis using differential privacy techniques to provide additional privacy guarantees. Overall, our work demonstrates the viability of employing non-speech audio data for accurate occupancy estimation, while also ensuring the exclusion of speech-related content and providing robust privacy protections through differential privacy guarantees.

Fuzzy systems (FSs) have enjoyed wide applications in various fields, including pattern recognition, intelligent control, data mining and bioinformatics, which is attributed to the strong interpretation and learning ability. In traditional application scenarios, FSs are mainly applied to model Euclidean space data and cannot be used to handle graph data of non-Euclidean structure in nature, such as social networks and traffic route maps. Therefore, development of FS modeling method that is suitable for graph data and can retain the advantages of traditional FSs is an important research. To meet this challenge, a new type of FS for graph data modeling called Graph Fuzzy System (GFS) is proposed in this paper, where the concepts, modeling framework and construction algorithms are systematically developed. First, GFS related concepts, including graph fuzzy rule base, graph fuzzy sets and graph consequent processing unit (GCPU), are defined. A GFS modeling framework is then constructed and the antecedents and consequents of the GFS are presented and analyzed. Finally, a learning framework of GFS is proposed, in which a kernel K-prototype graph clustering (K2PGC) is proposed to develop the construction algorithm for the GFS antecedent generation, and then based on graph neural network (GNNs), consequent parameters learning algorithm is proposed for GFS. Specifically, three different versions of the GFS implementation algorithm are developed for comprehensive evaluations with experiments on various benchmark graph classification datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed GFS inherits the advantages of both existing mainstream GNNs methods and conventional FSs methods while achieving better performance than the counterparts.

This work describes the TrueLearn Python library, which contains a family of online learning Bayesian models for building educational (or more generally, informational) recommendation systems. This family of models was designed following the "open learner" concept, using humanly-intuitive user representations. For the sake of interpretability and putting the user in control, the TrueLearn library also contains different representations to help end-users visualise the learner models, which may in the future facilitate user interaction with their own models. Together with the library, we include a previously publicly released implicit feedback educational dataset with evaluation metrics to measure the performance of the models. The extensive documentation and coding examples make the library highly accessible to both machine learning developers and educational data mining and learning analytic practitioners. The library and the support documentation with examples are available at https://truelearn.readthedocs.io/en/latest.

For many scientific inverse problems we are required to evaluate an expensive forward model. Moreover, the model is often given in such a form that it is unrealistic to access its gradients. In such a scenario, standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms quickly become impractical, requiring a large number of serial model evaluations to converge on the target distribution. In this paper we introduce Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion (FAKI). This is a generalization of Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI), where we embed the Kalman filter updates in a temperature annealing scheme, and use normalizing flows (NF) to map the intermediate measures corresponding to each temperature level to the standard Gaussian. In doing so, we relax the Gaussian ansatz for the intermediate measures used in standard EKI, allowing us to achieve higher fidelity approximations to non-Gaussian targets. We demonstrate the performance of FAKI on two numerical benchmarks, showing dramatic improvements over standard EKI in terms of accuracy whilst accelerating its already rapid convergence properties (typically in $\mathcal{O}(10)$ steps).

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension and estimate the resulting dynamics from a superstatistics perspective. Such a model entails a hierarchy between a low-level observation model and a high-level transition model. The observation model describes the local behavior of a system, and the transition model specifies how the parameters of the observation model evolve over time. To overcome the estimation challenges resulting from the complexity of superstatistical models, we develop and validate a simulation-based deep learning method for Bayesian inference, which can recover both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. We first benchmark our method against two existing frameworks capable of estimating time-varying parameters. We then apply our method to fit a dynamic version of the diffusion decision model to long time series of human response times data. Our results show that the deep learning approach is very efficient in capturing the temporal dynamics of the model. Furthermore, we show that the erroneous assumption of static or homogeneous parameters will hide important temporal information.

Fleets of unmanned robots can be beneficial for the long-term monitoring of large areas, e.g., to monitor wild flocks, detect intruders, search and rescue. Monitoring numerous dynamic targets in a collaborative and efficient way is a challenging problem that requires online coordination and information fusion. The majority of existing works either assume a passive all-to-all observation model to minimize the summed uncertainties over all targets by all robots, or optimize over the jointed discrete actions while neglecting the dynamic constraints of the robots and unknown behaviors of the targets. This work proposes an online task and motion coordination algorithm that ensures an explicitly-bounded estimation uncertainty for the target states, while minimizing the average number of active robots. The robots have a limited-range perception to actively track a limited number of targets simultaneously, of which their future control decisions are all unknown. It includes: (i) the assignment of monitoring tasks, modeled as a flexible size multiple vehicle routing problem with time windows (m-MVRPTW), given the predicted target trajectories with uncertainty measure in the road-networks; (ii) the nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for optimizing the robot trajectories under uncertainty and safety constraints. It is shown that the robots can switch between active and inactive roles dynamically online as required by the unknown monitoring task. The proposed methods are validated via large-scale simulations of up to $100$ robots and targets.

Machine learning methods are increasingly adopted in communications problems, particularly those arising in next generation wireless settings. Though seen as a key climate mitigation and societal adaptation enabler, communications related energy consumption is high and is expected to grow in future networks in spite of anticipated efficiency gains in 6G due to exponential communications traffic growth. To make meaningful climate mitigation impact in the communications sector, a mindset shift away from maximizing throughput at all cost and towards prioritizing energy efficiency is needed. Moreover, this must be adopted in both existing (without incurring further embodied carbon costs through equipment replacement) and future network infrastructure, given the long development time of mobile generations. To that end, we present summaries of two such problems, from both current and next generation network specifications, where probabilistic inference methods were used to great effect: using Bayesian parameter tuning we are able to safely reduce the energy consumption of existing hardware on a live communications network by $11\%$ whilst maintaining operator specified performance envelopes; through spatiotemporal Gaussian process surrogate modeling we reduce the overhead in a next generation hybrid beamforming system by over $60\%$, greatly improving the networks' ability to target highly mobile users such as autonomous vehicles. The Bayesian paradigm is itself helpful in terms of energy usage, since training a Bayesian optimization model can require much less computation than, say, training a deep neural network.

Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) offers a principled and elegant approach for sequential decision making under uncertainty. Most notably, Bayesian agents do not face an exploration/exploitation dilemma, a major pathology of frequentist methods. A key challenge for Bayesian RL is the computational complexity of learning Bayes-optimal policies, which is only tractable in toy domains. In this paper we propose a novel model-free approach to address this challenge. Rather than modelling uncertainty in high-dimensional state transition distributions as model-based approaches do, we model uncertainty in a one-dimensional Bellman operator. Our theoretical analysis reveals that existing model-free approaches either do not propagate epistemic uncertainty through the MDP or optimise over a set of contextual policies instead of all history-conditioned policies. Both approximations yield policies that can be arbitrarily Bayes-suboptimal. To overcome these issues, we introduce the Bayesian exploration network (BEN) which uses normalising flows to model both the aleatoric uncertainty (via density estimation) and epistemic uncertainty (via variational inference) in the Bellman operator. In the limit of complete optimisation, BEN learns true Bayes-optimal policies, but like in variational expectation-maximisation, partial optimisation renders our approach tractable. Empirical results demonstrate that BEN can learn true Bayes-optimal policies in tasks where existing model-free approaches fail.

Decision making under uncertainty is at the heart of any autonomous system acting with imperfect information. The cost of solving the decision making problem is exponential in the action and observation spaces, thus rendering it unfeasible for many online systems. This paper introduces a novel approach to efficient decision-making, by partitioning the high-dimensional observation space. Using the partitioned observation space, we formulate analytical bounds on the expected information-theoretic reward, for general belief distributions. These bounds are then used to plan efficiently while keeping performance guarantees. We show that the bounds are adaptive, computationally efficient, and that they converge to the original solution. We extend the partitioning paradigm and present a hierarchy of partitioned spaces that allows greater efficiency in planning. We then propose a specific variant of these bounds for Gaussian beliefs and show a theoretical performance improvement of at least a factor of 4. Finally, we compare our novel method to other state of the art algorithms in active SLAM scenarios, in simulation and in real experiments. In both cases we show a significant speed-up in planning with performance guarantees.

Machine-learning models can be fooled by adversarial examples, i.e., carefully-crafted input perturbations that force models to output wrong predictions. While uncertainty quantification has been recently proposed to detect adversarial inputs, under the assumption that such attacks exhibit a higher prediction uncertainty than pristine data, it has been shown that adaptive attacks specifically aimed at reducing also the uncertainty estimate can easily bypass this defense mechanism. In this work, we focus on a different adversarial scenario in which the attacker is still interested in manipulating the uncertainty estimate, but regardless of the correctness of the prediction; in particular, the goal is to undermine the use of machine-learning models when their outputs are consumed by a downstream module or by a human operator. Following such direction, we: \textit{(i)} design a threat model for attacks targeting uncertainty quantification; \textit{(ii)} devise different attack strategies on conceptually different UQ techniques spanning for both classification and semantic segmentation problems; \textit{(iii)} conduct a first complete and extensive analysis to compare the differences between some of the most employed UQ approaches under attack. Our extensive experimental analysis shows that our attacks are more effective in manipulating uncertainty quantification measures than attacks aimed to also induce misclassifications.