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 Uncertainty


A Geometric Perspective on Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing effective training and fast sampling techniques for diffusion models. A remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and their marginal-preserving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified framework. In this paper, we carefully inspect the ODE-based sampling of a popular variance-exploding SDE and reveal several intriguing structures of its sampling dynamics. We discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with a quasi-linear sampling trajectory and another implicit denoising trajectory that even converges faster. Meanwhile, the denoising trajectory governs the curvature of the corresponding sampling trajectory and its various finite differences yield all second-order samplers used in practice. Furthermore, we establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the empirical score deviation.


Gradient and Uncertainty Enhanced Sequential Sampling for Global Fit

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Most of these applications require computationally demanding simulation models. Machine learning (ML) models have emerged to mitigate the computational cost and are used as surrogates. For this task, ML models learn the relationship between the response of the expensive simulations from a dataset containing past observations. Various ML methods were proposed as surrogate models (sometimes referred as response surface methods), e.g. as solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the behavior of high-dimensional vector spaces or fields [1-3], or probabilistic approximators of parametric response functions [4]. Among these types of surrogate models, Gaussian Process Regression (GP) [5] is a popular choice [6, 7] because of its flexibility and ability to predict the model uncertainty. However, drawbacks are the selection of a suitable covariance (kernel) function that is application dependent, and the computational burden for larger data sets. Various extensions to GPs such as the deep GPs[8], sparse GPs based on variational inference [9, 10], and efficient matrix decomposition [11] were developed to overcome some of these limitations. One particularly promising approach is the combination of GPs with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to Deep Gaussian Covariance Networks (DGCNs) [12, 13] to learn the non-stationary hyperparameters of the GP together with combinations of different covariance functions.


Control-Data Separation and Logical Condition Propagation for Efficient Inference on Probabilistic Programs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the recent rise of statistical machine learning, probabilistic programming languages are attracting a lot attention as a programming infrastructure for data processing tasks. Probabilistic programming frameworks allow users to express statistical models as programs, and offer a variety of methods for analyzing the models. Probabilistic programs feature randomization and conditioning. Randomization can take different forms, such as probabilistic branching (ifp in Program 1) and random assignment from a probability distribution (denoted by, see Program 2).


Utility-based Adaptive Teaching Strategies using Bayesian Theory of Mind

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Good teachers always tailor their explanations to the learners. Cognitive scientists model this process under the rationality principle: teachers try to maximise the learner's utility while minimising teaching costs. To this end, human teachers seem to build mental models of the learner's internal state, a capacity known as Theory of Mind (ToM). Inspired by cognitive science, we build on Bayesian ToM mechanisms to design teacher agents that, like humans, tailor their teaching strategies to the learners. Our ToM-equipped teachers construct models of learners' internal states from observations and leverage them to select demonstrations that maximise the learners' rewards while minimising teaching costs. Our experiments in simulated environments demonstrate that learners taught this way are more efficient than those taught in a learner-agnostic way. This effect gets stronger when the teacher's model of the learner better aligns with the actual learner's state, either using a more accurate prior or after accumulating observations of the learner's behaviour. This work is a first step towards social machines that teach us and each other, see https://teacher-with-tom.github.io.


Human-like Few-Shot Learning via Bayesian Reasoning over Natural Language

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A core tension in models of concept learning is that the model must carefully balance the tractability of inference against the expressivity of the hypothesis class. Humans, however, can efficiently learn a broad range of concepts. We introduce a model of inductive learning that seeks to be human-like in that sense. It implements a Bayesian reasoning process where a language model first proposes candidate hypotheses expressed in natural language, which are then re-weighed by a prior and a likelihood. By estimating the prior from human data, we can predict human judgments on learning problems involving numbers and sets, spanning concepts that are generative, discriminative, propositional, and higher-order.


Statistical physics, Bayesian inference and neural information processing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Lecture notes from the course given by Professor Sara A. Solla at the Les Houches summer school on "Statistical physics of Machine Learning". The notes discuss neural information processing through the lens of Statistical Physics. Contents include Bayesian inference and its connection to a Gibbs description of learning and generalization, Generalized Linear Models as a controlled alternative to backpropagation through time, and linear and non-linear techniques for dimensionality reduction.


Understanding Augmentation-based Self-Supervised Representation Learning via RKHS Approximation and Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data augmentation is critical to the empirical success of modern self-supervised representation learning, such as contrastive learning and masked language modeling. However, a theoretical understanding of the exact role of augmentation remains limited. Recent work has built the connection between self-supervised learning and the approximation of the top eigenspace of a graph Laplacian operator, suggesting that learning a linear probe atop such representation can be connected to RKHS regression. Building on this insight, this work delves into a statistical analysis of augmentation-based pretraining. Starting from the isometry property, a geometric characterization of the target function given by the augmentation, we disentangle the effects of the model and the augmentation, and prove two generalization bounds that are free of model complexity. Our first bound works for an arbitrary encoder, where the prediction error is decomposed as the sum of an estimation error incurred by fitting a linear probe with RKHS regression, and an approximation error entailed by RKHS approximation. Our second bound specifically addresses the case where the encoder is near-optimal, that is it approximates the top-d eigenspace of the RKHS induced by the augmentation. A key ingredient in our analysis is the augmentation complexity, which we use to quantitatively compare different augmentations and analyze their impact on downstream performance. It is widely acknowledged that better data augmentation techniques have been a major driving force in many recent breakthroughs in self-supervised representation learning. For example, contrastive learning (Chen et al., 2020) with aggressive random cropping and strong color distortion greatly improves the performance of vision tasks, and masked prediction with random masking and replacement is among the state-of-the-art representation learning methods for both natural language processing (Devlin et al., 2019) and vision (He et al., 2022). Due to their extraordinary empirical successes, developing a rigorous theoretical understanding of augmentation-based representation learning is an important open problem, and is crucial for inventing new, better and principled augmentation techniques. A key advance was recently made by HaoChen et al. (2021), who analyzed a variant of contrastive representation learning, termed spectral contrastive learning, by connecting it to learning eigenfunctions of a Laplacian operator over a population augmentation graph. This has been followed up by multiple works which extended these results to more general contrastive learning approaches (Saunshi et al., 2022; Johnson et al., 2023; Cabannes et al., 2023).


Provable Offline Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we investigate the problem of offline Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) with human feedback where feedback is available in the form of preference between trajectory pairs rather than explicit rewards. Our proposed algorithm consists of two main steps: (1) estimate the implicit reward using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with general function approximation from offline data and (2) solve a distributionally robust planning problem over a confidence set around the MLE. We consider the general reward setting where the reward can be defined over the whole trajectory and provide a novel guarantee that allows us to learn any target policy with a polynomial number of samples, as long as the target policy is covered by the offline data. This guarantee is the first of its kind with general function approximation. To measure the coverage of the target policy, we introduce a new single-policy concentrability coefficient, which can be upper bounded by the per-trajectory concentrability coefficient. We also establish lower bounds that highlight the necessity of such concentrability and the difference from standard RL, where state-action-wise rewards are directly observed. We further extend and analyze our algorithm when the feedback is given over action pairs.


A Variational Perspective on Solving Inverse Problems with Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diffusion models have emerged as a key pillar of foundation models in visual domains. One of their critical applications is to universally solve different downstream inverse tasks via a single diffusion prior without re-training for each task. Most inverse tasks can be formulated as inferring a posterior distribution over data (e.g., a full image) given a measurement (e.g., a masked image). This is however challenging in diffusion models since the nonlinear and iterative nature of the diffusion process renders the posterior intractable. To cope with this challenge, we propose a variational approach that by design seeks to approximate the true posterior distribution. We show that our approach naturally leads to regularization by denoising diffusion process (RED-Diff) where denoisers at different timesteps concurrently impose different structural constraints over the image. To gauge the contribution of denoisers from different timesteps, we propose a weighting mechanism based on signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). Our approach provides a new variational perspective for solving inverse problems with diffusion models, allowing us to formulate sampling as stochastic optimization, where one can simply apply off-the-shelf solvers with lightweight iterates. Our experiments for image restoration tasks such as inpainting and superresolution demonstrate the strengths of our method compared with state-of-the-art sampling-based diffusion models.


Continuous-in-time Limit for Bayesian Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper revisits the bandit problem in the Bayesian setting. The Bayesian approach formulates the bandit problem as an optimization problem, and the goal is to find the optimal policy which minimizes the Bayesian regret. One of the main challenges facing the Bayesian approach is that computation of the optimal policy is often intractable, especially when the length of the problem horizon or the number of arms is large. In this paper, we first show that under a suitable rescaling, the Bayesian bandit problem converges toward a continuous Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. The optimal policy for the limiting HJB equation can be explicitly obtained for several common bandit problems, and we give numerical methods to solve the HJB equation when an explicit solution is not available. Based on these results, we propose an approximate Bayes-optimal policy for solving Bayesian bandit problems with large horizons. Our method has the added benefit that its computational cost does not increase as the horizon increases.