Gradient-based sampling algorithms have demonstrated their effectiveness in text generation, especially in the context of controlled text generation. However, there exists a lack of theoretically grounded and principled approaches for this task. In this paper, we take an important step toward building a principled approach for sampling from language models with gradient-based methods. We use discrete distributions given by language models to define densities and develop an algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to sample from them. We name our gradient-based technique Structured Voronoi Sampling (SVS). In an experimental setup where the reference distribution is known, we show that the empirical distribution of SVS samples is closer to the reference distribution compared to alternative sampling schemes. Furthermore, in a controlled generation task, SVS is able to generate fluent and diverse samples while following the control targets significantly better than other methods.

In the face of dataset shift, model calibration plays a pivotal role in ensuring the reliability of machine learning systems. Calibration error (CE) is an indicator of the alignment between the predicted probabilities and the classifier accuracy. While prior works have delved into the implications of dataset shift on calibration, existing CE estimators assume access to labels from the target domain, which are often unavailable in practice, i.e., when the model is deployed and used. This work addresses such challenging scenario, and proposes a novel CE estimator under label shift, which is characterized by changes in the marginal label distribution $p(Y)$, while keeping the conditional $p(X|Y)$ constant between the source and target distributions. Our contribution is an approach, which, by leveraging importance re-weighting of the labeled source distribution, provides consistent and asymptotically unbiased CE estimation with respect to the shifted target distribution. Empirical results across diverse real-world datasets, under various conditions and label-shift intensities, demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed estimator.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) can be categorized into online and offline variants. As a pivotal aspect of both online and offline RL, current research on the Bellman equation revolves primarily around optimization techniques and performance enhancement rather than exploring the inherent structural properties of the Bellman error, such as its distribution characteristics. This study investigates the distribution of the Bellman approximation error through iterative exploration of the Bellman equation with the observation that the Bellman error approximately follows the Logistic distribution. Based on this, we proposed the utilization of the Logistic maximum likelihood function (LLoss) as an alternative to the commonly used mean squared error (MSELoss) that assumes a Normal distribution for Bellman errors. We validated the hypotheses through extensive numerical experiments across diverse online and offline environments. In particular, we applied the Logistic correction to loss functions in various RL baseline methods and observed that the results with LLoss consistently outperformed the MSE counterparts. We also conducted the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to confirm the reliability of the Logistic distribution. Moreover, our theory connects the Bellman error to the proportional reward scaling phenomenon by providing a distribution-based analysis. Furthermore, we applied the bias-variance decomposition for sampling from the Logistic distribution. The theoretical and empirical insights of this study lay a valuable foundation for future investigations and enhancements centered on the distribution of Bellman error.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration error and refinement -- utilizing a Bregman divergence. While uncertainty calibration has gained significant attention, current literature lacks a general estimator for these quantities with known statistical properties. To address this gap, we propose a method that allows consistent, and asymptotically unbiased estimation of all proper calibration errors and refinement terms. In particular, we introduce Kullback--Leibler calibration error, induced by the commonly used cross-entropy loss. As part of our results, we prove the relation between refinement and f-divergences, which implies information monotonicity in neural networks, regardless of which proper scoring rule is optimized. Our experiments validate empirically the claimed properties of the proposed estimator and suggest that the selection of a post-hoc calibration method should be determined by the particular calibration error of interest.

Symmetric positive definite~(SPD) matrices have shown important value and applications in statistics and machine learning, such as FMRI analysis and traffic prediction. Previous works on SPD matrices mostly focus on discriminative models, where predictions are made directly on $E(X|y)$, where $y$ is a vector and $X$ is an SPD matrix. However, these methods are challenging to handle for large-scale data, as they need to access and process the whole data. In this paper, inspired by denoising diffusion probabilistic model~(DDPM), we propose a novel generative model, termed SPD-DDPM, by introducing Gaussian distribution in the SPD space to estimate $E(X|y)$. Moreover, our model is able to estimate $p(X)$ unconditionally and flexibly without giving $y$. On the one hand, the model conditionally learns $p(X|y)$ and utilizes the mean of samples to obtain $E(X|y)$ as a prediction. On the other hand, the model unconditionally learns the probability distribution of the data $p(X)$ and generates samples that conform to this distribution. Furthermore, we propose a new SPD net which is much deeper than the previous networks and allows for the inclusion of conditional factors. Experiment results on toy data and real taxi data demonstrate that our models effectively fit the data distribution both unconditionally and unconditionally and provide accurate predictions.

In the standard formulation of the denoising problem, one is given a probabilistic model relating a latent variable $\Theta \in \Omega \subset \mathbb{R}^m \; (m\ge 1)$ and an observation $Z \in \mathbb{R}^d$ according to: $Z \mid \Theta \sim p(\cdot\mid \Theta)$ and $\Theta \sim G^*$, and the goal is to construct a map to recover the latent variable from the observation. The posterior mean, a natural candidate for estimating $\Theta$ from $Z$, attains the minimum Bayes risk (under the squared error loss) but at the expense of over-shrinking the $Z$, and in general may fail to capture the geometric features of the prior distribution $G^*$ (e.g., low dimensionality, discreteness, sparsity, etc.). To rectify these drawbacks, in this paper we take a new perspective on this denoising problem that is inspired by optimal transport (OT) theory and use it to propose a new OT-based denoiser at the population level setting. We rigorously prove that, under general assumptions on the model, our OT-based denoiser is well-defined and unique, and is closely connected to solutions to a Monge OT problem. We then prove that, under appropriate identifiability assumptions on the model, our OT-based denoiser can be recovered solely from information of the marginal distribution of $Z$ and the posterior mean of the model, after solving a linear relaxation problem over a suitable space of couplings that is reminiscent of a standard multimarginal OT (MOT) problem. In particular, thanks to Tweedie's formula, when the likelihood model $\{ p(\cdot \mid \theta) \}_{\theta \in \Omega}$ is an exponential family of distributions, the OT-based denoiser can be recovered solely from the marginal distribution of $Z$. In general, our family of OT-like relaxations is of interest in its own right and for the denoising problem suggests alternative numerical methods inspired by the rich literature on computational OT.

Efficient probability density estimation is a core challenge in statistical machine learning. Tensor-based probabilistic graph methods address interpretability and stability concerns encountered in neural network approaches. However, a substantial number of potential tensor permutations can lead to a tensor network with the same structure but varying expressive capabilities. In this paper, we take tensor ring decomposition for density estimator, which significantly reduces the number of permutation candidates while enhancing expressive capability compared with existing used decompositions. Additionally, a mixture model that incorporates multiple permutation candidates with adaptive weights is further designed, resulting in increased expressive flexibility and comprehensiveness. Different from the prevailing directions of tensor network structure/permutation search, our approach provides a new viewpoint inspired by ensemble learning. This approach acknowledges that suboptimal permutations can offer distinctive information besides that of optimal permutations. Experiments show the superiority of the proposed approach in estimating probability density for moderately dimensional datasets and sampling to capture intricate details.

Score matching is an approach to learning probability distributions parametrized up to a constant of proportionality (e.g. Energy-Based Models). The idea is to fit the score of the distribution, rather than the likelihood, thus avoiding the need to evaluate the constant of proportionality. While there's a clear algorithmic benefit, the statistical "cost'' can be steep: recent work by Koehler et al. 2022 showed that for distributions that have poor isoperimetric properties (a large Poincar\'e or log-Sobolev constant), score matching is substantially statistically less efficient than maximum likelihood. However, many natural realistic distributions, e.g. multimodal distributions as simple as a mixture of two Gaussians in one dimension -- have a poor Poincar\'e constant. In this paper, we show a close connection between the mixing time of a broad class of Markov processes with generator $\mathcal{L}$ and an appropriately chosen generalized score matching loss that tries to fit $\frac{\mathcal{O} p}{p}$. This allows us to adapt techniques to speed up Markov chains to construct better score-matching losses. In particular, ``preconditioning'' the diffusion can be translated to an appropriate ``preconditioning'' of the score loss. Lifting the chain by adding a temperature like in simulated tempering can be shown to result in a Gaussian-convolution annealed score matching loss, similar to Song and Ermon, 2019. Moreover, we show that if the distribution being learned is a finite mixture of Gaussians in $d$ dimensions with a shared covariance, the sample complexity of annealed score matching is polynomial in the ambient dimension, the diameter of the means, and the smallest and largest eigenvalues of the covariance -- obviating the Poincar\'e constant-based lower bounds of the basic score matching loss shown in Koehler et al. 2022.

Traditional multi-armed bandit (MAB) frameworks, predominantly examined under stochastic or adversarial settings, often overlook the temporal dynamics inherent in many real-world applications such as recommendation systems and online advertising. This paper introduces a novel non-stationary MAB framework that captures the temporal structure of these real-world dynamics through an auto-regressive (AR) reward structure. We propose an algorithm that integrates two key mechanisms: (i) an alternation mechanism adept at leveraging temporal dependencies to dynamically balance exploration and exploitation, and (ii) a restarting mechanism designed to discard out-of-date information. Our algorithm achieves a regret upper bound that nearly matches the lower bound, with regret measured against a robust dynamic benchmark. Finally, via a real-world case study on tourism demand prediction, we demonstrate both the efficacy of our algorithm and the broader applicability of our techniques to more complex, rapidly evolving time series.