Fuzzy Logic
Neuro-inspired edge feature fusion using Choquet integrals
Marco-Detchart, Cedric, Lucca, Giancarlo, Lopez-Molina, Carlos, De Miguel, Laura, Dimuro, Graçaliz Pereira, Bustince, Humberto
It is known that the human visual system performs a hierarchical information process in which early vision cues (or primitives) are fused in the visual cortex to compose complex shapes and descriptors. While different aspects of the process have been extensively studied, as the lens adaptation or the feature detection, some other,as the feature fusion, have been mostly left aside. In this work we elaborate on the fusion of early vision primitives using generalizations of the Choquet integral, and novel aggregation operators that have been extensively studied in recent years. We propose to use generalizations of the Choquet integral to sensibly fuse elementary edge cues, in an attempt to model the behaviour of neurons in the early visual cortex. Our proposal leads to a full-framed edge detection algorithm, whose performance is put to the test in state-of-the-art boundary detection datasets.
Artificial Intelligence Based Prognostic Maintenance of Renewable Energy Systems: A Review of Techniques, Challenges, and Future Research Directions
Afridi, Yasir Saleem, Ahmad, Kashif, Hassan, Laiq
Since the depletion of fossil fuels, the world has started to rely heavily on renewable sources of energy. With every passing year, our dependency on the renewable sources of energy is increasing exponentially. As a result, complex and hybrid generation systems are being designed and developed to meet the energy demands and ensure energy security in a country. The continual improvement in the technology and an effort towards the provision of uninterrupted power to the end-users is strongly dependent on an effective and fault resilient Operation and Maintenance (O&M) system. Ingenious algorithms and techniques are hence been introduced aiming to minimize equipment and plant downtime. Efforts are being made to develop robust Prognostic Maintenance systems that can identify the faults before they occur. To this aim, complex Data Analytics and Machine Learning (ML) techniques are being used to increase the overall efficiency of these prognostic maintenance systems. This paper provides an overview of the predictive/prognostic maintenance frameworks reported in the literature. We pay a particular focus to the approaches, challenges including data-related issues, such as the availability and quality of the data and data auditing, feature engineering, interpretability, and security issues. Being a key aspect of ML-based solutions, we also discuss some of the commonly used publicly available datasets in the domain. The paper also identifies key future research directions. We believe such detailed analysis will provide a baseline for future research in the domain.
Benchmarking the Benchmark -- Analysis of Synthetic NIDS Datasets
Layeghy, Siamak, Gallagher, Marcus, Portmann, Marius
Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) are an increasingly important tool for the prevention and mitigation of cyber attacks. A number of labelled synthetic datasets generated have been generated and made publicly available by researchers, and they have become the benchmarks via which new ML-based NIDS classifiers are being evaluated. Recently published results show excellent classification performance with these datasets, increasingly approaching 100 percent performance across key evaluation metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, etc. Unfortunately, we have not yet seen these excellent academic research results translated into practical NIDS systems with such near-perfect performance. This motivated our research presented in this paper, where we analyse the statistical properties of the benign traffic in three of the more recent and relevant NIDS datasets, (CIC, UNSW, ...). As a comparison, we consider two datasets obtained from real-world production networks, one from a university network and one from a medium size Internet Service Provider (ISP). Our results show that the two real-world datasets are quite similar among themselves in regards to most of the considered statistical features. Equally, the three synthetic datasets are also relatively similar within their group. However, and most importantly, our results show a distinct difference of most of the considered statistical features between the three synthetic datasets and the two real-world datasets. Since ML relies on the basic assumption of training and test datasets being sampled from the same distribution, this raises the question of how well the performance results of ML-classifiers trained on the considered synthetic datasets can translate and generalise to real-world networks. We believe this is an interesting and relevant question which provides motivation for further research in this space.
Low-rank State-action Value-function Approximation
Rozada, Sergio, Tenorio, Victor, Marques, Antonio G.
Value functions are central to Dynamic Programming and Reinforcement Learning but their exact estimation suffers from the curse of dimensionality, challenging the development of practical value-function (VF) estimation algorithms. Several approaches have been proposed to overcome this issue, from non-parametric schemes that aggregate states or actions to parametric approximations of state and action VFs via, e.g., linear estimators or deep neural networks. Relevantly, several high-dimensional state problems can be well-approximated by an intrinsic low-rank structure. Motivated by this and leveraging results from low-rank optimization, this paper proposes different stochastic algorithms to estimate a low-rank factorization of the $Q(s, a)$ matrix. This is a non-parametric alternative to VF approximation that dramatically reduces the computational and sample complexities relative to classical $Q$-learning methods that estimate $Q(s,a)$ separately for each state-action pair.
Uncertainty measures: The big picture
Probability theory is far from being the most general mathematical theory of uncertainty. A number of arguments point at its inability to describe second-order ('Knightian') uncertainty. In response, a wide array of theories of uncertainty have been proposed, many of them generalisations of classical probability. As we show here, such frameworks can be organised into clusters sharing a common rationale, exhibit complex links, and are characterised by different levels of generality. Our goal is a critical appraisal of the current landscape in uncertainty theory.
A Fast Evidential Approach for Stock Forecasting
In the framework of evidence theory, data fusion combines the confidence functions of multiple different information sources to obtain a combined confidence function. Stock price prediction is the focus of economics. Stock price forecasts can provide reference data. The Dempster combination rule is a classic method of fusing different information. By using the Dempster combination rule and confidence function based on the entire time series fused at each time point and future time points, and the preliminary forecast value obtained through the time relationship, the accurate forecast value can be restored. This article will introduce the prediction method of evidence theory. This method has good running performance, can make a rapid response on a large amount of stock price data, and has far-reaching significance.
QZNs: Quantum Z-numbers
Because of the efficiency of modeling fuzziness and vagueness, Z-number plays an important role in real practice. However, Z-numbers, defined in the real number field, lack the ability to process the quantum information in quantum environment. It is reasonable to generalize Z-number into its quantum counterpart. In this paper, we propose quantum Z-numbers (QZNs), which are the quantum generalization of Z-numbers. In addition, seven basic quantum fuzzy operations of QZNs and their corresponding quantum circuits are presented and illustrated by numerical examples. Moreover, based on QZNs, a novel quantum multi-attributes decision making (MADM) algorithm is proposed and applied in medical diagnosis. The results show that, with the help of quantum computation, the proposed algorithm can make diagnoses correctly and efficiently.
Supervised Feature Selection Techniques in Network Intrusion Detection: a Critical Review
Di Mauro, Mario, Galatro, Giovanni, Fortino, Giancarlo, Liotta, Antonio
Machine Learning (ML) techniques are becoming an invaluable support for network intrusion detection, especially in revealing anomalous flows, which often hide cyber-threats. Typically, ML algorithms are exploited to classify/recognize data traffic on the basis of statistical features such as inter-arrival times, packets length distribution, mean number of flows, etc. Dealing with the vast diversity and number of features that typically characterize data traffic is a hard problem. This results in the following issues: i) the presence of so many features leads to lengthy training processes (particularly when features are highly correlated), while prediction accuracy does not proportionally improve; ii) some of the features may introduce bias during the classification process, particularly those that have scarce relation with the data traffic to be classified. To this end, by reducing the feature space and retaining only the most significant features, Feature Selection (FS) becomes a crucial pre-processing step in network management and, specifically, for the purposes of network intrusion detection. In this review paper, we complement other surveys in multiple ways: i) evaluating more recent datasets (updated w.r.t. obsolete KDD 99) by means of a designed-from-scratch Python-based procedure; ii) providing a synopsis of most credited FS approaches in the field of intrusion detection, including Multi-Objective Evolutionary techniques; iii) assessing various experimental analyses such as feature correlation, time complexity, and performance. Our comparisons offer useful guidelines to network/security managers who are considering the incorporation of ML concepts into network intrusion detection, where trade-offs between performance and resource consumption are crucial.
Individual Explanations in Machine Learning Models: A Case Study on Poverty Estimation
Carrillo, Alfredo, Cantú, Luis F., Tejerina, Luis, Noriega, Alejandro
A. Relevance of Model Explanations in Real-World Contexts Complex estimation and decision-making tasks have traditionally been analyzed and judged by human experts. Hence, decisions have typically been able to be complemented with human-interpretable justifications, when needed, as experts can normally explain the line-of-thought that led to their own decision-making. However, in the past two decades, algorithmic decision-making has spread increasingly to many relevant societal contexts. Despite the notable enthusiasm for the potential benefit that this type of technology can bring, the underlying methods used are typically not inherently transparent, in the sense that they do not readily provide human-interpretable justifications for their decisions [1]. Moreover, in recent years there is a trend where the most successful algorithms, particularly in complex tasks like machine vision and natural language processing, tend to rely on highly complex models, which has led to a further increase in tension between accuracy and interpretability [2]. Relevant societal contexts where algorithmic decision systems have gained substantial traction include medical diagnosis and treatment [3], counter-terrorism [4], criminal justice [5], and risk assessments for credits and insurance [6]. In such impactful contexts, there is a legitimate need for providing human-interpretable explanations along with the estimations and decisions made. Indeed, lack of interpretability has become a barrier to the adoption of machine learning-based systems in many institutions and companies. Hence the value of complementing ML models with human-interpretable accounts of the statistical rationals behind their estimations, in a way that human decision-makers can more easily understand machine estimations, and even integrate their statistical rationals with qualitative information and human expert judgements.
Individual Explanations in Machine Learning Models: A Survey for Practitioners
Carrillo, Alfredo, Cantú, Luis F., Noriega, Alejandro
In recent years, the use of sophisticated statistical models that influence decisions in domains of high societal relevance is on the rise. Although these models can often bring substantial improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of organizations, many governments, institutions, and companies are reluctant to their adoption as their output is often difficult to explain in human-interpretable ways. Hence, these models are often regarded as black-boxes, in the sense that their internal mechanisms can be opaque to human audit. In real-world applications, particularly in domains where decisions can have a sensitive impact--e.g., criminal justice, estimating credit scores, insurance risk, health risks, etc.--model interpretability is desired. Recently, the academic literature has proposed a substantial amount of methods for providing interpretable explanations to machine learning models. This survey reviews the most relevant and novel methods that form the state-of-the-art for addressing the particular problem of explaining individual instances in machine learning. It seeks to provide a succinct review that can guide data science and machine learning practitioners in the search for appropriate methods to their problem domain.