"Fuzzy Logic is basically a multivalued logic that allows intermediate values to be defined between conventional evaluations like yes/no, true/false, black/white, etc. Notions like rather warm or pretty cold can be formulated mathematically and processed by computers."
– Peter Bauer, Stephan Nouak, and Roman Winkler. A Brief Course in Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Control. Available from ESRU [Energy Systems Research Unit], Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Strathclyde. 1996.
Increasing complexity comes from some factors including uncertainty, ambiguity, inconsistency, multiple dimensionalities, increasing the number of effective factors and relation between them. Some of these features are common among most real-world problems which are considered complex and dynamic problems. In other words, since the data and relations in real world applications are usually highly complex and inaccurate, modeling real complex systems based on observed data is a challenging task especially for large scale, inaccurate and non stationary datasets. Therefore, to cover and address these difficulties, the existence of a computational system with the capability of extracting knowledge from the complex system with the ability to simulate its behavior is essential. In other words, it is needed to find a robust approach and solution to handle real complex problems in an easy and meaningful way . Hard computing methods depend on quantitative values with expensive solutions and lack of ability to represent the problem in real life due to some uncertainties. In contrast, soft computing approaches act as alternative tools to deal with the reasoning of complex problems . Using soft computing methods such as fuzzy logic, neural network, genetic algorithms or a combination of these allows achieving robustness, tractable and more practical solutions. Generally, two types of methods are used for analyzing and modeling dynamic systems including quantitative and qualitative approaches.
Petropoulos, Fotios, Apiletti, Daniele, Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Barrow, Devon K., Taieb, Souhaib Ben, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bessa, Ricardo J., Bijak, Jakub, Boylan, John E., Browell, Jethro, Carnevale, Claudio, Castle, Jennifer L., Cirillo, Pasquale, Clements, Michael P., Cordeiro, Clara, Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, De Baets, Shari, Dokumentov, Alexander, Ellison, Joanne, Fiszeder, Piotr, Franses, Philip Hans, Frazier, David T., Gilliland, Michael, Gönül, M. Sinan, Goodwin, Paul, Grossi, Luigi, Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, Guidolin, Mariangela, Guidolin, Massimo, Gunter, Ulrich, Guo, Xiaojia, Guseo, Renato, Harvey, Nigel, Hendry, David F., Hollyman, Ross, Januschowski, Tim, Jeon, Jooyoung, Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kang, Yanfei, Koehler, Anne B., Kolassa, Stephan, Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Leva, Sonia, Li, Feng, Litsiou, Konstantia, Makridakis, Spyros, Martin, Gael M., Martinez, Andrew B., Meeran, Sheik, Modis, Theodore, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Önkal, Dilek, Paccagnini, Alessia, Panagiotelis, Anastasios, Panapakidis, Ioannis, Pavía, Jose M., Pedio, Manuela, Pedregal, Diego J., Pinson, Pierre, Ramos, Patrícia, Rapach, David E., Reade, J. James, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman, Rubaszek, Michał, Sermpinis, Georgios, Shang, Han Lin, Spiliotis, Evangelos, Syntetos, Aris A., Talagala, Priyanga Dilini, Talagala, Thiyanga S., Tashman, Len, Thomakos, Dimitrios, Thorarinsdottir, Thordis, Todini, Ezio, Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero, Wang, Xiaoqian, Winkler, Robert L., Yusupova, Alisa, Ziel, Florian
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
The most common approaches for solving multistage stochastic programming problems in the research literature have been to either use value functions ("dynamic programming") or scenario trees ("stochastic programming") to approximate the impact of a decision now on the future. By contrast, common industry practice is to use a deterministic approximation of the future which is easier to understand and solve, but which is criticized for ignoring uncertainty. We show that a parameterized version of a deterministic optimization model can be an effective way of handling uncertainty without the complexity of either stochastic programming or dynamic programming. We present the idea of a parameterized deterministic optimization model, and in particular a deterministic lookahead model, as a powerful strategy for many complex stochastic decision problems. This approach can handle complex, high-dimensional state variables, and avoids the usual approximations associated with scenario trees or value function approximations. Instead, it introduces the offline challenge of designing and tuning the parameterization. We illustrate the idea by using a series of application settings, and demonstrate its use in a nonstationary energy storage problem with rolling forecasts.
Electrical utilities depend on short-term demand forecasting to proactively adjust production and distribution in anticipation of major variations. This systematic review analyzes 240 works published in scholarly journals between 2000 and 2019 that focus on applying Artificial Intelligence (AI), statistical, and hybrid models to short-term load forecasting (STLF). This work represents the most comprehensive review of works on this subject to date. A complete analysis of the literature is conducted to identify the most popular and accurate techniques as well as existing gaps. The findings show that although Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) continue to be the most commonly used standalone technique, researchers have been exceedingly opting for hybrid combinations of different techniques to leverage the combined advantages of individual methods. The review demonstrates that it is commonly possible with these hybrid combinations to achieve prediction accuracy exceeding 99%. The most successful duration for short-term forecasting has been identified as prediction for a duration of one day at an hourly interval. The review has identified a deficiency in access to datasets needed for training of the models. A significant gap has been identified in researching regions other than Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia.
The classic win-win has a key flaw in that it cannot offer the parties the right amounts of winning because each party believes they are winners. In reality, one party may win more than the other. This strategy is not limited to a single product or negotiation; it may be applied to a variety of situations in life. We present a novel way to measure the win-win situation in this paper. The proposed method employs Fuzzy logic to create a mathematical model that aids negotiators in quantifying their winning percentages. The model is put to the test on real-life negotiations scenarios such as the Iranian uranium enrichment negotiations, the Iraqi-Jordanian oil deal, and the iron ore negotiation (2005-2009). The presented model has shown to be a useful tool in practice and can be easily generalized to be utilized in other domains as well.
When 5G began its commercialisation journey around 2020, the discussion on the vision of 6G also surfaced. Researchers expect 6G to have higher bandwidth, coverage, reliability, energy efficiency, lower latency, and, more importantly, an integrated "human-centric" network system powered by artificial intelligence (AI). Such a 6G network will lead to an excessive number of automated decisions made every second. These decisions can range widely, from network resource allocation to collision avoidance for self-driving cars. However, the risk of losing control over decision-making may increase due to high-speed data-intensive AI decision-making beyond designers and users' comprehension. The promising explainable AI (XAI) methods can mitigate such risks by enhancing the transparency of the black box AI decision-making process. This survey paper highlights the need for XAI towards the upcoming 6G age in every aspect, including 6G technologies (e.g., intelligent radio, zero-touch network management) and 6G use cases (e.g., industry 5.0). Moreover, we summarised the lessons learned from the recent attempts and outlined important research challenges in applying XAI for building 6G systems. This research aligns with goals 9, 11, 16, and 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDG), promoting innovation and building infrastructure, sustainable and inclusive human settlement, advancing justice and strong institutions, and fostering partnership at the global level.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms are increasingly providing decision making and operational support across multiple domains. AI includes a wide library of algorithms for different problems. One important notion for the adoption of AI algorithms into operational decision process is the concept of assurance. The literature on assurance, unfortunately, conceals its outcomes within a tangled landscape of conflicting approaches, driven by contradicting motivations, assumptions, and intuitions. Accordingly, albeit a rising and novel area, this manuscript provides a systematic review of research works that are relevant to AI assurance, between years 1985 - 2021, and aims to provide a structured alternative to the landscape. A new AI assurance definition is adopted and presented and assurance methods are contrasted and tabulated. Additionally, a ten-metric scoring system is developed and introduced to evaluate and compare existing methods. Lastly, in this manuscript, we provide foundational insights, discussions, future directions, a roadmap, and applicable recommendations for the development and deployment of AI assurance.
We consider the problem of black-box multi-objective optimization (MOO) using expensive function evaluations (also referred to as experiments), where the goal is to approximate the true Pareto set of solutions by minimizing the total resource cost of experiments. For example, in hardware design optimization, we need to find the designs that trade-off performance, energy, and area overhead using expensive computational simulations. The key challenge is to select the sequence of experiments to uncover high-quality solutions using minimal resources. In this paper, we propose a general framework for solving MOO problems based on the principle of output space entropy (OSE) search: select the experiment that maximizes the information gained per unit resource cost about the true Pareto front. We appropriately instantiate the principle of OSE search to derive efficient algorithms for the following four MOO problem settings: 1) The most basic single-fidelity setting, where experiments are expensive and accurate; 2) Handling black-box constraints which cannot be evaluated without performing experiments; 3) The discrete multi-fidelity setting, where experiments can vary in the amount of resources consumed and their evaluation accuracy; and 4) The continuous-fidelity setting, where continuous function approximations result in a huge space of experiments. Experiments on diverse synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that our OSE search based algorithms improve over state-of-the-art methods in terms of both computational-efficiency and accuracy of MOO solutions.
We consider the problem of black-box multi-objective optimization (MOO) using expensive function evaluations (also referred to as experiments), where the goal is to approximate the true Pareto set of solutions by minimizing the total resource cost of experiments. For example, in hardware design optimization, we need to find the designs that trade-off performance, energy, and area overhead using expensive computational simulations. The key challenge is to select the sequence of experiments to uncover high-quality solutions using minimal resources. In this paper, we propose a general framework for solving MOO problems based on the principle of output space entropy (OSE) search: select the experiment that maximizes the information gained per unit resource cost about the true Pareto front. We appropriately instantiate the principle of OSE search to derive efficient algorithms for the following four MOO problem settings: 1) The most basic em single-fidelity setting, where experiments are expensive and accurate; 2) Handling em black-box constraints} which cannot be evaluated without performing experiments; 3) The discrete multi-fidelity setting, where experiments can vary in the amount of resources consumed and their evaluation accuracy; and 4) The em continuous-fidelity setting, where continuous function approximations result in a huge space of experiments. Experiments on diverse synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that our OSE search based algorithms improve over state-of-the-art methods in terms of both computational-efficiency and accuracy of MOO solutions.