Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been proposed to analyze this type of data. Time series data has been also used to study the effect of interventions over time. Moreover, in many fields of science, learning the causal structure of dynamic systems and time series data is considered an interesting task which plays an important role in scientific discoveries. Estimating the effect of an intervention and identifying the causal relations from the data can be performed via causal inference. Existing surveys on time series discuss traditional tasks such as classification and forecasting or explain the details of the approaches proposed to solve a specific task. In this paper, we focus on two causal inference tasks, i.e., treatment effect estimation and causal discovery for time series data, and provide a comprehensive review of the approaches in each task. Furthermore, we curate a list of commonly used evaluation metrics and datasets for each task and provide in-depth insight. These metrics and datasets can serve as benchmarks for research in the field.

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as the constituents of supervised learning. A chapter on datasets as benchmarks examines their histories and scientific bases. Self-contained introductions to causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning equip the reader with concepts and tools to reason about actions and their consequences. Throughout, the text discusses historical context and societal impact. We invite readers from all backgrounds; some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra suffices.

Multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) are a popular form of Previous work on MAIDs has focussed on Nash equilibria as graphical model that, for certain classes of games, have been shown the core solution concept [20]. Whilst this is arguably the most important to offer key complexity and explainability advantages over traditional solution concept in non-cooperative game theory, if there extensive form game (EFG) representations. In this paper, we are many Nash equilibria we often wish to remove some of those extend previous work on MAIDs by introducing the concept of a that are less'rational'. Many refinements to the Nash equilibrium MAID subgame, as well as subgame perfect and trembling hand have been proposed [17], with two of the most important being perfect equilibrium refinements. We then prove several equivalence subgame perfect Nash equilibria [26] and trembling hand perfect results between MAIDs and EFGs. Finally, we describe an open equilibria [27]. The first rules out'non-credible' threats and the second source implementation for reasoning about MAIDs and computing requires that each player is still playing a best-response when their equilibria.

Sampling is a popular method for approximate inference when exact inference is impractical. Generally, sampling algorithms do not exploit context-specific independence (CSI) properties of probability distributions. We introduce context-specific likelihood weighting (CS-LW), a new sampling methodology, which besides exploiting the classical conditional independence properties, also exploits CSI properties. Unlike the standard likelihood weighting, CS-LW is based on partial assignments of random variables and requires fewer samples for convergence due to the sampling variance reduction. Furthermore, the speed of generating samples increases. Our novel notion of contextual assignments theoretically justifies CS-LW. We empirically show that CS-LW is competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms for approximate inference in the presence of a significant amount of CSIs.

By leveraging experience from previous tasks, meta-learning algorithms can achieve effective fast adaptation ability when encountering new tasks. However it is unclear how the generalization property applies to new tasks. Probably approximately correct (PAC) Bayes bound theory provides a theoretical framework to analyze the generalization performance for meta-learning. We derive three novel generalisation error bounds for meta-learning based on PAC-Bayes relative entropy bound. Furthermore, using the empirical risk minimization (ERM) method, a PAC-Bayes bound for meta-learning with data-dependent prior is developed. Experiments illustrate that the proposed three PAC-Bayes bounds for meta-learning guarantee a competitive generalization performance guarantee, and the extended PAC-Bayes bound with data-dependent prior can achieve rapid convergence ability.

In this paper, we study the problem of inferring time-varying Markov random fields (MRF), where the underlying graphical model is both sparse and changes sparsely over time. Most of the existing methods for the inference of time-varying MRFs rely on the regularized maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), that typically suffer from weak statistical guarantees and high computational time. Instead, we introduce a new class of constrained optimization problems for the inference of sparsely-changing MRFs. The proposed optimization problem is formulated based on the exact $\ell_0$ regularization, and can be solved in near-linear time and memory. Moreover, we show that the proposed estimator enjoys a provably small estimation error. As a special case, we derive sharp statistical guarantees for the inference of sparsely-changing Gaussian MRFs (GMRF) in the high-dimensional regime, showing that such problems can be learned with as few as one sample per time. Our proposed method is extremely efficient in practice: it can accurately estimate sparsely-changing graphical models with more than 500 million variables in less than one hour.

The main objective of this paper is to outline a theoretical framework to analyse how humans' decision-making strategies under uncertainty manage the trade-off between information gathering (exploration) and reward seeking (exploitation). A key observation, motivating this line of research, is the awareness that human learners are amazingly fast and effective at adapting to unfamiliar environments and incorporating upcoming knowledge: this is an intriguing behaviour for cognitive sciences as well as an important challenge for Machine Learning. The target problem considered is active learning in a black-box optimization task and more specifically how the exploration/exploitation dilemma can be modelled within Gaussian Process based Bayesian Optimization framework, which is in turn based on uncertainty quantification. The main contribution is to analyse humans' decisions with respect to Pareto rationality where the two objectives are improvement expected and uncertainty quantification. According to this Pareto rationality model, if a decision set contains a Pareto efficient (dominant) strategy, a rational decision maker should always select the dominant strategy over its dominated alternatives. The distance from the Pareto frontier determines whether a choice is (Pareto) rational (i.e., lays on the frontier) or is associated to "exasperate" exploration. However, since the uncertainty is one of the two objectives defining the Pareto frontier, we have investigated three different uncertainty quantification measures and selected the one resulting more compliant with the Pareto rationality model proposed. The key result is an analytical framework to characterize how deviations from "rationality" depend on uncertainty quantifications and the evolution of the reward seeking process.

There has been rapidly growing interest in meta-learning as a method for increasing the flexibility and sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. One problem in this area of research, however, has been a scarcity of adequate benchmark tasks. In general, the structure underlying past benchmarks has either been too simple to be inherently interesting, or too ill-defined to support principled analysis. In the present work, we introduce a new benchmark for meta-RL research, which combines structural richness with structural transparency. Alchemy is a 3D video game, implemented in Unity, which involves a latent causal structure that is resampled procedurally from episode to episode, affording structure learning, online inference, hypothesis testing and action sequencing based on abstract domain knowledge. We evaluate a pair of powerful RL agents on Alchemy and present an in-depth analysis of one of these agents. Results clearly indicate a frank and specific failure of meta-learning, providing validation for Alchemy as a challenging benchmark for meta-RL. Concurrent with this report, we are releasing Alchemy as public resource, together with a suite of analysis tools and sample agent trajectories.

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that are associated with Granger causality graphs, our model leverages an uncountable event type space and samples the graphs with different sizes from a nonparametric model called {\it graphon}. Given those graphs, we can generate the corresponding Hawkes processes and simulate event sequences. Learning this graphon-based Hawkes process model helps to 1) infer the underlying relations shared by different Hawkes processes; and 2) simulate event sequences with different event types but similar dynamics. We learn the proposed model by minimizing the hierarchical optimal transport distance between the generated event sequences and the observed ones, leading to a novel reward-augmented maximum likelihood estimation method. We analyze the properties of our model in-depth and demonstrate its rationality and effectiveness in both theory and experiments.

Missing values with mixed data types is a common problem in a large number of machine learning applications such as processing of surveys and in different medical applications. Recently, Gaussian copula models have been suggested as a means of performing imputation of missing values using a probabilistic framework. While the present Gaussian copula models have shown to yield state of the art performance, they have two limitations: they are based on an approximation that is fast but may be imprecise and they do not support unordered multinomial variables. We address the first limitation using direct and arbitrarily precise approximations both for model estimation and imputation by using randomized quasi-Monte Carlo procedures. The method we provide has lower errors for the estimated model parameters and the imputed values, compared to previously proposed methods. We also extend the previous Gaussian copula models to include unordered multinomial variables in addition to the present support of ordinal, binary, and continuous variables.