Automotive insurers increasingly have access to telematic information via black-box recorders installed in the insured vehicle, and wish to identify undesirable behaviour which may signify increased risk or uninsured activities. However, identification of such behaviour with machine learning is non-trivial, and results are far from perfect, requiring human investigation to verify suspected cases. An appropriately formed priority score, generated by automated analysis of GPS data, allows underwriters to make more efficient use of their time, improving detection of the behaviour under investigation. An example of such behaviour is the use of a privately insured vehicle for commercial purposes, such as delivering meals and parcels. We first make use of trip GPS and accelerometer data, augmented by geospatial information, to train an imperfect classifier for delivery driving on a per-trip basis. We make use of a mixture of Beta-Binomial distributions to model the propensity of a policyholder to undertake trips which result in a positive classification as being drawn from either a rare high-scoring or common low-scoring group, and learn the parameters of this model using MCMC. This model provides us with a posterior probability that any policyholder will be a regular generator of automated alerts given any number of trips and alerts. This posterior probability is converted to a priority score, which was used to select the most valuable candidates for manual investigation. Testing over a 1-year period ranked policyholders by likelihood of commercial driving activity on a weekly basis. The top 0.9% have been reviewed at least once by the underwriters at the time of writing, and of those 99.4% have been confirmed as correctly identified, showing the approach has achieved a significant improvement in efficiency of human resource allocation compared to manual searching.

We present Bayesian Diffusion Models (BDM), a prediction algorithm that performs effective Bayesian inference by tightly coupling the top-down (prior) information with the bottom-up (data-driven) procedure via joint diffusion processes. We show the effectiveness of BDM on the 3D shape reconstruction task. Compared to prototypical deep learning data-driven approaches trained on paired (supervised) data-labels (e.g. image-point clouds) datasets, our BDM brings in rich prior information from standalone labels (e.g. point clouds) to improve the bottom-up 3D reconstruction. As opposed to the standard Bayesian frameworks where explicit prior and likelihood are required for the inference, BDM performs seamless information fusion via coupled diffusion processes with learned gradient computation networks. The specialty of our BDM lies in its capability to engage the active and effective information exchange and fusion of the top-down and bottom-up processes where each itself is a diffusion process. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks for 3D shape reconstruction.

We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first seeks a set of edges that leaves no disconnected nodes in the network; the second seeks a causal large connected component in the data. We tested these methods both for discrete synthetic and real data, and compared the results with those obtained for the PC algorithm, which we took as the benchmark. We show that this novel algorithm is generally faster and more accurate than the PC algorithm. The algorithm for determining the thresholds requires choosing a measure of causality. We tested our methods for Fisher Correlations, commonly used in PC algorithm (for instance in \cite{kalisch2005}), and further proposed a discrete and asymmetric measure of causality, that we called Net Influence, which provided very good results when inferring causal networks from discrete data. This metric allows for inferring directionality of the edges in the process of applying the thresholds, speeding up the inference of causal DAGs.

Simulation based inference (SBI) methods enable the estimation of posterior distributions when the likelihood function is intractable, but where model simulation is feasible. Popular neural approaches to SBI are the neural posterior estimator (NPE) and its sequential version (SNPE). These methods can outperform statistical SBI approaches such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), particularly for relatively small numbers of model simulations. However, we show in this paper that the NPE methods are not guaranteed to be highly accurate, even on problems with low dimension. In such settings the posterior cannot be accurately trained over the prior predictive space, and even the sequential extension remains sub-optimal. To overcome this, we propose preconditioned NPE (PNPE) and its sequential version (PSNPE), which uses a short run of ABC to effectively eliminate regions of parameter space that produce large discrepancy between simulations and data and allow the posterior emulator to be more accurately trained. We present comprehensive empirical evidence that this melding of neural and statistical SBI methods improves performance over a range of examples, including a motivating example involving a complex agent-based model applied to real tumour growth data.

Data assimilation is a core component of numerical weather prediction systems. The large quantity of data processed during assimilation requires the computation to be distributed across increasingly many compute nodes, yet existing approaches suffer from synchronisation overhead in this setting. In this paper, we exploit the formulation of data assimilation as a Bayesian inference problem and apply a message-passing algorithm to solve the spatial inference problem. Since message passing is inherently based on local computations, this approach lends itself to parallel and distributed computation. In combination with a GPU-accelerated implementation, we can scale the algorithm to very large grid sizes while retaining good accuracy and compute and memory requirements.

The practical utility of agent-based models in decision-making relies on their capacity to accurately replicate populations while seamlessly integrating real-world data streams. Yet, the incorporation of such data poses significant challenges due to privacy concerns. To address this issue, we introduce a paradigm for private agent-based modeling wherein the simulation, calibration, and analysis of agent-based models can be achieved without centralizing the agents attributes or interactions. The key insight is to leverage techniques from secure multi-party computation to design protocols for decentralized computation in agent-based models. This ensures the confidentiality of the simulated agents without compromising on simulation accuracy. We showcase our protocols on a case study with an epidemiological simulation comprising over 150,000 agents. We believe this is a critical step towards deploying agent-based models to real-world applications.

One of the main challenges in surrogate modeling is the limited availability of data due to resource constraints associated with computationally expensive simulations. Multi-fidelity methods provide a solution by chaining models in a hierarchy with increasing fidelity, associated with lower error, but increasing cost. In this paper, we compare different multi-fidelity methods employed in constructing Gaussian process surrogates for regression. Non-linear autoregressive methods in the existing literature are primarily confined to two-fidelity models, and we extend these methods to handle more than two levels of fidelity. Additionally, we propose enhancements for an existing method incorporating delay terms by introducing a structured kernel. We demonstrate the performance of these methods across various academic and real-world scenarios. Our findings reveal that multi-fidelity methods generally have a smaller prediction error for the same computational cost as compared to the single-fidelity method, although their effectiveness varies across different scenarios.

Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm is very popular for solving low-dimensional expensive optimization problems. Extending Bayesian optimization to high dimension is a meaningful but challenging task. One of the major challenges is that it is difficult to find good infill solutions as the acquisition functions are also high-dimensional. In this work, we propose the expected coordinate improvement (ECI) criterion for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization. The proposed ECI criterion measures the potential improvement we can get by moving the current best solution along one coordinate. The proposed approach selects the coordinate with the highest ECI value to refine in each iteration and covers all the coordinates gradually by iterating over the coordinates. The greatest advantage of the proposed ECI-BO (expected coordinate improvement based Bayesian optimization) algorithm over the standard BO algorithm is that the infill selection problem of the proposed algorithm is always a one-dimensional problem thus can be easily solved. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm can achieve significantly better results than the standard BO algorithm and competitive results when compared with five state-of-the-art high-dimensional BOs. This work provides a simple but efficient approach for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization.

Language models (LMs) trained on vast quantities of text data can acquire sophisticated skills such as generating summaries, answering questions or generating code. However, they also manifest behaviors that violate human preferences, e.g., they can generate offensive content, falsehoods or perpetuate social biases. In this thesis, I explore several approaches to aligning LMs with human preferences. First, I argue that aligning LMs can be seen as Bayesian inference: conditioning a prior (base, pretrained LM) on evidence about human preferences (Chapter 2). Conditioning on human preferences can be implemented in numerous ways. In Chapter 3, I investigate the relation between two approaches to finetuning pretrained LMs using feedback given by a scoring function: reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) and distribution matching. I show that RLHF can be seen as a special case of distribution matching but distributional matching is strictly more general. In chapter 4, I show how to extend the distribution matching to conditional language models. Finally, in chapter 5 I explore a different root: conditioning an LM on human preferences already during pretraining. I show that involving human feedback from the very start tends to be more effective than using it only during supervised finetuning. Overall, these results highlight the room for alignment techniques different from and complementary to RLHF.

We study the problem of learning directed acyclic graphs from continuous observational data, generated according to a linear Gaussian structural equation model. State-of-the-art structure learning methods for this setting have at least one of the following shortcomings: i) they cannot provide optimality guarantees and can suffer from learning sub-optimal models; ii) they rely on the stringent assumption that the noise is homoscedastic, and hence the underlying model is fully identifiable. We overcome these shortcomings and develop a computationally efficient mixed-integer programming framework for learning medium-sized problems that accounts for arbitrary heteroscedastic noise. We present an early stopping criterion under which we can terminate the branch-and-bound procedure to achieve an asymptotically optimal solution and establish the consistency of this approximate solution. In addition, we show via numerical experiments that our method outperforms three state-of-the-art algorithms and is robust to noise heteroscedasticity, whereas the performance of the competing methods deteriorates under strong violations of the identifiability assumption. The software implementation of our method is available as the Python package \emph{micodag}.