With the growing use of voice-activated systems and speech recognition technologies, the danger of backdoor attacks on audio data has grown significantly. This research looks at a specific type of attack, known as a Stochastic investment-based backdoor attack (MarketBack), in which adversaries strategically manipulate the stylistic properties of audio to fool speech recognition systems. The security and integrity of machine learning models are seriously threatened by backdoor attacks, in order to maintain the reliability of audio applications and systems, the identification of such attacks becomes crucial in the context of audio data. Experimental results demonstrated that MarketBack is feasible to achieve an average attack success rate close to 100% in seven victim models when poisoning less than 1% of the training data.

Building prediction intervals for time series forecasting problems presents a complex challenge, particularly when relying solely on point predictors, a common scenario for practitioners in the industry. While research has primarily focused on achieving increasingly efficient valid intervals, we argue that, when evaluating a set of intervals, traditional measures alone are insufficient. There are additional crucial characteristics: the intervals must vary in length, with this variation directly linked to the difficulty of the prediction, and the coverage of the interval must remain independent of the difficulty of the prediction for practical utility. We propose the Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) model and the Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI) method, providing theoretical coverage guarantees, to overcome those issues, respectively. The methodologies are evaluated in the context of Electricity Price Forecasting and Wind Power Forecasting, representing complex scenarios in time series forecasting. The results demonstrate that HQR and WACI not only improve or achieve typical measures of validity and efficiency but also successfully fulfil the commonly ignored mentioned characteristics.

In this paper, we develop a decision support system for the hierarchical text classification. We consider text collections with a fixed hierarchical structure of topics given by experts in the form of a tree. The system sorts the topics by relevance to a given document. The experts choose one of the most relevant topics to finish the classification. We propose a weighted hierarchical similarity function to calculate topic relevance. The function calculates the similarity of a document and a tree branch. The weights in this function determine word importance. We use the entropy of words to estimate the weights. The proposed hierarchical similarity function formulates a joint hierarchical thematic classification probability model of the document topics, parameters, and hyperparameters. The variational Bayesian inference gives a closed-form EM algorithm. The EM algorithm estimates the parameters and calculates the probability of a topic for a given document. Compared to hierarchical multiclass SVM, hierarchical PLSA with adaptive regularization, and hierarchical naive Bayes, the weighted hierarchical similarity function has better improvement in ranking accuracy in an abstract collection of a major conference EURO and a website collection of industrial companies.

In recent years there has been significant interest in the effect of different types of adversarial perturbations in data classification problems. Many of these models incorporate the adversarial power, which is an important parameter with an associated trade-off between accuracy and robustness. This work considers a general framework for adversarially-perturbed classification problems, in a large data or population-level limit. In such a regime, we demonstrate that as adversarial strength goes to zero that optimal classifiers converge to the Bayes classifier in the Hausdorff distance. This significantly strengthens previous results, which generally focus on $L^1$-type convergence. The main argument relies upon direct geometric comparisons and is inspired by techniques from geometric measure theory.

Music recommender systems are crucial in music streaming platforms, providing users with music they would enjoy. Recent studies have shown that user emotions can affect users' music mood preferences. However, existing emotion-aware music recommender systems (EMRSs) explicitly or implicitly assume that users' actual emotional states expressed by an identical emotion word are homogeneous. They also assume that users' music mood preferences are homogeneous under an identical emotional state. In this article, we propose four types of heterogeneity that an EMRS should consider: emotion heterogeneity across users, emotion heterogeneity within a user, music mood preference heterogeneity across users, and music mood preference heterogeneity within a user. We further propose a Heterogeneity-aware Deep Bayesian Network (HDBN) to model these assumptions. The HDBN mimics a user's decision process to choose music with four components: personalized prior user emotion distribution modeling, posterior user emotion distribution modeling, user grouping, and Bayesian neural network-based music mood preference prediction. We constructed a large-scale dataset called EmoMusicLJ to validate our method. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline approaches on widely used HR and NDCG recommendation metrics. Ablation experiments and case studies further validate the effectiveness of our HDBN. The source code is available at https://github.com/jingrk/HDBN.

Extracting time-varying latent variables from computational cognitive models is a key step in model-based neural analysis, which aims to understand the neural correlates of cognitive processes. However, existing methods only allow researchers to infer latent variables that explain subjects' behavior in a relatively small class of cognitive models. For example, a broad class of relevant cognitive models with analytically intractable likelihood is currently out of reach from standard techniques, based on Maximum a Posteriori parameter estimation. Here, we present an approach that extends neural Bayes estimation to learn a direct mapping between experimental data and the targeted latent variable space using recurrent neural networks and simulated datasets. We show that our approach achieves competitive performance in inferring latent variable sequences in both tractable and intractable models. Furthermore, the approach is generalizable across different computational models and is adaptable for both continuous and discrete latent spaces. We then demonstrate its applicability in real world datasets. Our work underscores that combining recurrent neural networks and simulation-based inference to identify latent variable sequences can enable researchers to access a wider class of cognitive models for model-based neural analyses, and thus test a broader set of theories.

Stress and material deformation field predictions are among the most important tasks in computational mechanics. These predictions are typically made by solving the governing equations of continuum mechanics using finite element analysis, which can become computationally prohibitive considering complex microstructures and material behaviors. Machine learning (ML) methods offer potentially cost effective surrogates for these applications. However, existing ML surrogates are either limited to low-dimensional problems and/or do not provide uncertainty estimates in the predictions. This work proposes an ML surrogate framework for stress field prediction and uncertainty quantification for diverse materials microstructures. A modified Bayesian U-net architecture is employed to provide a data-driven image-to-image mapping from initial microstructure to stress field with prediction (epistemic) uncertainty estimates. The Bayesian posterior distributions for the U-net parameters are estimated using three state-of-the-art inference algorithms: the posterior sampling-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method and two variational approaches, the Monte-Carlo Dropout method and the Bayes by Backprop algorithm. A systematic comparison of the predictive accuracy and uncertainty estimates for these methods is performed for a fiber reinforced composite material and polycrystalline microstructure application. It is shown that the proposed methods yield predictions of high accuracy compared to the FEA solution, while uncertainty estimates depend on the inference approach. Generally, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Bayes by Backprop methods provide consistent uncertainty estimates. Uncertainty estimates from Monte Carlo Dropout, on the other hand, are more difficult to interpret and depend strongly on the method's design.

Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate Bayesian inference have been widely used in real-world applications. Nevertheless, their theoretical justification is less investigated in the literature, especially for contextual bandit problems. To fill this gap, we propose a general theoretical framework to analyze stochastic linear bandits in the presence of approximate inference and conduct regret analysis on two Bayesian bandit algorithms, Linear Thompson sampling (LinTS) and the extension of Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound, namely Linear Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound (LinBUCB). We demonstrate that both LinTS and LinBUCB can preserve their original rates of regret upper bound but with a sacrifice of larger constant terms when applied with approximate inference. These results hold for general Bayesian inference approaches, under the assumption that the inference error measured by two different $\alpha$-divergences is bounded. Additionally, by introducing a new definition of well-behaved distributions, we show that LinBUCB improves the regret rate of LinTS from $\tilde{O}(d^{3/2}\sqrt{T})$ to $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{T})$, matching the minimax optimal rate. To our knowledge, this work provides the first regret bounds in the setting of stochastic linear bandits with bounded approximate inference errors.

Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks. While certified training improves robustness, it also decreases accuracy noticeably. Despite various proposals for addressing this issue, the significant accuracy drop remains. More importantly, it is not clear whether there is a certain fundamental limit on achieving robustness whilst maintaining accuracy. In this work, we offer a novel perspective based on Bayes errors. By adopting Bayes error to robustness analysis, we investigate the limit of certified robust accuracy, taking into account data distribution uncertainties. We first show that the accuracy inevitably decreases in the pursuit of robustness due to changed Bayes error in the altered data distribution. Subsequently, we establish an upper bound for certified robust accuracy, considering the distribution of individual classes and their boundaries. Our theoretical results are empirically evaluated on real-world datasets and are shown to be consistent with the limited success of existing certified training results, e.g., for CIFAR10, our analysis results in an upper bound (of certified robust accuracy) of 67.49\%, meanwhile existing approaches are only able to increase it from 53.89\% in 2017 to 62.84\% in 2023.

A novel framework for Bayesian structural model updating is presented in this study. The proposed method utilizes the surrogate unimodal encoders of a multimodal variational autoencoder (VAE). The method facilitates an approximation of the likelihood when dealing with a small number of observations. It is particularly suitable for high-dimensional correlated simultaneous observations applicable to various dynamic analysis models. The proposed approach was benchmarked using a numerical model of a single-story frame building with acceleration and dynamic strain measurements. Additionally, an example involving a Bayesian update of nonlinear model parameters for a three-degree-of-freedom lumped mass model demonstrates computational efficiency when compared to using the original VAE, while maintaining adequate accuracy for practical applications.