Expert Systems
A Multi-Disciplinary Review of Knowledge Acquisition Methods: From Human to Autonomous Eliciting Agents
This paper offers a multi-disciplinary review of knowledge acquisition methods in human activity systems. The review captures the degree of involvement of various types of agencies in the knowledge acquisition process, and proposes a classification with three categories of methods: the human agent, the human-inspired agent, and the autonomous machine agent methods. In the first two categories, the acquisition of knowledge is seen as a cognitive task analysis exercise, while in the third category knowledge acquisition is treated as an autonomous knowledge-discovery endeavour. The motivation for this classification stems from the continuous change over time of the structure, meaning and purpose of human activity systems, which are seen as the factor that fuelled researchers' and practitioners' efforts in knowledge acquisition for more than a century. We show through this review that the KA field is increasingly active due to the higher and higher pace of change in human activity, and conclude by discussing the emergence of a fourth category of knowledge acquisition methods, which are based on red-teaming and co-evolution.
Abductive reasoning as the basis to reproduce expert criteria in ECG Atrial Fibrillation identification
Teijeiro, Tomás, García, Constantino A., Castro, Daniel, Félix, Paulo
Objective: This work aims at providing a new method for the automatic detection of atrial fibrillation, other arrhythmia and noise on short single lead ECG signals, emphasizing the importance of the interpretability of the classification results. Approach: A morphological and rhythm description of the cardiac behavior is obtained by a knowledge-based interpretation of the signal using the \textit{Construe} abductive framework. Then, a set of meaningful features are extracted for each individual heartbeat and as a summary of the full record. The feature distributions were used to elucidate the expert criteria underlying the labeling of the 2017 Physionet/CinC Challenge dataset, enabling a manual partial relabeling to improve the consistency of the classification rules. Finally, state-of-the-art machine learning methods are combined to provide an answer on the basis of the feature values. Main results: The proposal tied for the first place in the official stage of the Challenge, with a combined $F_1$ score of 0.83, and was even improved in the follow-up stage to 0.85 with a significant simplification of the model. Significance: This approach demonstrates the potential of \textit{Construe} to provide robust and valuable descriptions of temporal data even with significant amounts of noise and artifacts. Also, we discuss the importance of a consistent classification criteria in manually labeled training datasets, and the fundamental advantages of knowledge-based approaches to formalize and validate that criteria.
Theoretical Foundations of Forward Feature Selection Methods based on Mutual Information
Macedo, Francisco, Oliveira, M. Rosário, Pacheco, António, Valadas, Rui
Feature selection problems arise in a variety of applications, such as microarray analysis, clinical prediction, text categorization, image classification and face recognition, multi-label learning, and classification of internet traffic. Among the various classes of methods, forward feature selection methods based on mutual information have become very popular and are widely used in practice. However, comparative evaluations of these methods have been limited by being based on specific datasets and classifiers. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework that allows evaluating the methods based on their theoretical properties. Our framework is grounded on the properties of the target objective function that the methods try to approximate, and on a novel categorization of features, according to their contribution to the explanation of the class; we derive upper and lower bounds for the target objective function and relate these bounds with the feature types. Then, we characterize the types of approximations taken by the methods, and analyze how these approximations cope with the good properties of the target objective function. Additionally, we develop a distributional setting designed to illustrate the various deficiencies of the methods, and provide several examples of wrong feature selections. Based on our work, we identify clearly the methods that should be avoided, and the methods that currently have the best performance.
Experts search for the site of the 1692 Glencoe Massacre
The lost settlements of one of Scotland's most visited landscapes, infamous for the worst murders of the clan era, are to be traced by archaeologists for the first time. Glencoe was the scene of a massacre of the MacDonald clan, which saw more than 30 members of the kinship group slain exactly 362 years ago today. Their murders were ordered by the state after the clan chief tried but failed to meet a deadline to pledge allegiance to King William II. Experts hope to uncover some of the six settlements that are believed to have existed in the area in 1692, when the brutal attack took place. The lost settlements of one of Scotland's most visited landscapes, infamous for the worst murders of the clan era, are to be traced by archaeologists for the first time.
Story Generation and Aviation Incident Representation
This working note discusses the topic of story generation, with a view to identifying the knowledge required to understand aviation incident narratives (which have structural similarities to stories), following the premise that to understand aviation incidents, one should at least be able to generate examples of them. We give a brief overview of aviation incidents and their relation to stories, and then describe two of our earlier attempts (using `scripts' and `story grammars') at incident generation which did not evolve promisingly. Following this, we describe a simple incident generator which did work (at a `toy' level), using a `world simulation' approach. This generator is based on Meehan's TALE-SPIN story generator (1977). We conclude with a critique of the approach.
Hybrid Decision Making: When Interpretable Models Collaborate With Black-Box Models
Interpretable machine learning models have received increasing interest in recent years, especially in domains where humans are involved in the decision-making process. However, the possible loss of the task performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable. This performance downgrade puts practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between a top-performing black-box model with no explanations and an interpretable model with unsatisfying task performance. In this work, we propose a novel framework for building a Hybrid Decision Model that integrates an interpretable model with any black-box model to introduce explanations in the decision making process while preserving or possibly improving the predictive accuracy. We propose a novel metric, explainability, to measure the percentage of data that are sent to the interpretable model for decision. We also design a principled objective function that considers predictive accuracy, model interpretability, and data explainability. Under this framework, we develop Collaborative Black-box and RUle Set Hybrid (CoBRUSH) model that combines logic rules and any black-box model into a joint decision model. An input instance is first sent to the rules for decision. If a rule is satisfied, a decision will be directly generated. Otherwise, the black-box model is activated to decide on the instance. To train a hybrid model, we design an efficient search algorithm that exploits theoretically grounded strategies to reduce computation. Experiments show that CoBRUSH models are able to achieve same or better accuracy than their black-box collaborator working alone while gaining explainability. They also have smaller model complexity than interpretable baselines.
Stream Reasoning in Temporal Datalog
Ronca, Alessandro (University of Oxford) | Kaminski, Mark (University of Oxford) | Grau, Bernardo Cuenca (University of Oxford) | Motik, Boris (University of Oxford) | Horrocks, Ian (University of Oxford)
Consider a number of wind turbines scattered throughout the North Sea. Each turbine is equipped with a Query processing over data streams is a key aspect of Big sensor, which continuously records temperature levels of key Data applications. For instance, algorithmic trading relies on devices within the turbine and sends those readings to a data real-time analysis of stock tickers and financial news items centre monitoring the functioning of the turbines. Temperature (Nuti et al. 2011); oil and gas companies continuously monitor levels are streamed by sensors using a ternary predicate and analyse data coming from their wellsites in order Temp, whose arguments identify the device, the temperature to detect equipment malfunction and predict maintenance level, and the time of the reading. A monitoring task in the needs (Cosad et al. 2009); network providers perform realtime data centre is to track the activation of cooling measures in analysis of network flow data to identify traffic anomalies each turbine, record temperature-induced malfunctions and and DoS attacks (Münz and Carle 2007).