Historically, the theory of probability emerged from the efforts of Pascal and Fermat in the 1650s to solve problems posed by a gambler, Chevalier de Méré (Rényi, 1972; Devlin, 2008), and reached its current form in Kolmogorov, 1933. Remarkably, not even highly experienced gamblers can extract high precision probability estimates from observed data: one of de Méré's questions concerned comparing the probabilities of getting at least one 6 in four rolls of one die (p 0.5177) and getting at least one double-6 in 24 throws of a pair of dice (p 0.4914). Four decades later, Samuel Pepys is asking Newton to discern the difference between at least two 6s when 12 dice are rolled (p 0.6187) and at least 3 6s when 18 dice are rolled (p 0.5973). In this paper we make this phenomenon, the very limited ability of people to deal with probabilities, the focal point of our inquiry. These limitations, we will argue, go beyond the well understood limits of numerosity (Dehaene, 1997), and touch upon areas such as cognitive limits of deduction (Kracht, 2011) and default inheritance (Etherington, 1987). We will offer a model of the naive/commonsensical theory of probability. In Section 2 we discuss likeliness, which we take to be a valuation of propositions on a discrete (seven-point) scale. In Section 3 we turn to the inference mechanism supported by the naive theory, akin to Jeffreys-style probability updates. In Section 4 we briefly sketch the background theory and discuss what we take to be the central concern, learnability.

Field canals improvement projects (FCIPs) are one of the ambitious projects constructed to save fresh water. To finance this project, Conceptual cost models are important to accurately predict preliminary costs at the early stages of the project. The first step is to develop a conceptual cost model to identify key cost drivers affecting the project. Therefore, input variables selection remains an important part of model development, as the poor variables selection can decrease model precision. The study discovered the most important drivers of FCIPs based on a qualitative approach and a quantitative approach. Subsequently, the study has developed a parametric cost model based on machine learning methods such as regression methods, artificial neural networks, fuzzy model and case-based reasoning.

Reasoning in the context of a conditional knowledge base containing rules of the form ’If A then usually B’ can be defined in terms of preference relations on possible worlds. These preference relations can be modeled by ranking functions that assign a degree of disbelief to each possible world. In general, there are multiple ranking functions that accept a given knowledge base. Several nonmonotonic inference relations have been proposed using c-representations, a subset of all ranking functions. These inference relations take subsets of all c-representations based on various notions of minimality into account, and they operate in different inference modes, i.e., skeptical, weakly skeptical, or credulous. For nonmonotonic inference relations, weaker versions of monotonicity like rational monotony (RM) and weak rational monotony (WRM) have been developed. In this paper, we investigate which of the inference relations induced by sets of minimal c-representations satisfy rational monotony or weak rational monotony.

Large knowledge bases (KBs) are useful for many AI tasks, but are difficult to integrate into modern gradient-based learning systems. Here we describe a framework for accessing soft symbolic database using only differentiable operators. For example, this framework makes it easy to conveniently write neural models that adjust confidences associated with facts in a soft KB; incorporate prior knowledge in the form of hand-coded KB access rules; or learn to instantiate query templates using information extracted from text. NQL can work well with KBs with millions of tuples and hundreds of thousands of entities on a single GPU.

Thanks to digitization of industrial assets in fleets, the ambitious goal of transferring fault diagnosis models fromone machine to the other has raised great interest. Solving these domain adaptive transfer learning tasks has the potential to save large efforts on manually labeling data and modifying models for new machines in the same fleet. Although data-driven methods have shown great potential in fault diagnosis applications, their ability to generalize on new machines and new working conditions are limited because of their tendency to overfit to the training set in reality. One promising solution to this problem is to use domain adaptation techniques. It aims to improve model performance on the target new machine. Inspired by its successful implementation in computer vision, we introduced Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) to our context, along with two other popular methods existing in previous fault diagnosis research. We then carefully justify the applicability of these methods in realistic fault diagnosis settings, and offer a unified experimental protocol for a fair comparison between domain adaptation methods for fault diagnosis problems.

Neural networks (NN) are considered as black-boxes due to the lack of explainability and transparency of their decisions. This significantly hampers their deployment in environments where explainability is essential along with the accuracy of the system. Recently, significant efforts have been made for the interpretability of these deep networks with the aim to open up the black-box. However, most of these approaches are specifically developed for visual modalities. In addition, the interpretations provided by these systems require expert knowledge and understanding for intelligibility. This indicates a vital gap between the explainability provided by the systems and the novice user. To bridge this gap, we present a novel framework i.e. Time-Series eXplanation (TSXplain) system which produces a natural language based explanation of the decision taken by a NN. It uses the extracted statistical features to describe the decision of a NN, merging the deep learning world with that of statistics. The two-level explanation provides ample description of the decision made by the network to aid an expert as well as a novice user alike. Our survey and reliability assessment test confirm that the generated explanations are meaningful and correct. We believe that generating natural language based descriptions of the network's decisions is a big step towards opening up the black-box.

Current advances in Artificial Intelligence and machine learning in general, and deep learning in particular have reached unprecedented impact not only across research communities, but also over popular media channels. However, concerns about interpretability and accountability of AI have been raised by influential thinkers. In spite of the recent impact of AI, several works have identified the need for principled knowledge representation and reasoning mechanisms integrated with deep learning-based systems to provide sound and explainable models for such systems. Neural-symbolic computing aims at integrating, as foreseen by Valiant, two most fundamental cognitive abilities: the ability to learn from the environment, and the ability to reason from what has been learned. Neural-symbolic computing has been an active topic of research for many years, reconciling the advantages of robust learning in neural networks and reasoning and interpretability of symbolic representation. In this paper, we survey recent accomplishments of neural-symbolic computing as a principled methodology for integrated machine learning and reasoning. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by outlining the main characteristics of the methodology: principled integration of neural learning with symbolic knowledge representation and reasoning allowing for the construction of explainable AI systems. The insights provided by neural-symbolic computing shed new light on the increasingly prominent need for interpretable and accountable AI systems.

In the context of Industry 4.0, data management is a key point for decision aid approaches. Large amounts of manufacturing digital data are collected on the shop floor. Their analysis can then require a large amount of computing power. The Big Data issue can be solved by aggregation, generating smart and meaningful data. This paper presents a new knowledge-based multi-level aggregation strategy to support decision making. Manufacturing knowledge is used at each level to design the monitoring criteria or aggregation operators. The proposed approach has been implemented as a demonstrator and successfully applied to a real machining database from the aeronautic industry. Decision Making; Machining; Knowledge based system

Automated Planning is one of the main research field of Artificial Intelligence since its beginnings. Research in Automated Planning aims at developing general reasoners (i.e., planners) capable of automatically solve complex problems. Broadly speaking, planners rely on a general model characterizing the possible states of the world and the actions that can be performed in order to change the status of the world. Given a model and an initial known state, the objective of a planner is to synthesize a set of actions needed to achieve a particular goal state. The classical approach to planning roughly corresponds to the description given above. The timeline-based approach is a particular planning paradigm capable of integrating causal and temporal reasoning within a unified solving process. This approach has been successfully applied in many real-world scenarios although a common interpretation of the related planning concepts is missing. Indeed, there are significant differences among the existing frameworks that apply this technique. Each framework relies on its own interpretation of timeline-based planning and therefore it is not easy to compare these systems. Thus, the objective of this work is to investigate the timeline-based approach to planning by addressing several aspects ranging from the semantics of the related planning concepts to the modeling and solving techniques. Specifically, the main contributions of this PhD work consist of: (i) the proposal of a formal characterization of the timeline-based approach capable of dealing with temporal uncertainty; (ii) the proposal of a hierarchical modeling and solving approach; (iii) the development of a general purpose framework for planning and execution with timelines; (iv) the validation{\dag}of this approach in real-world manufacturing scenarios.

A voting center is in charge of collecting and aggregating voter preferences. In an iterative process, the center sends comparison queries to voters, requesting them to submit their preference between two items. Voters might discuss the candidates among themselves, figuring out during the elicitation process which candidates stand a chance of winning and which do not. Consequently, strategic voters might attempt to manipulate by deviating from their true preferences and instead submit a different response in order to attempt to maximize their profit. We provide a practical algorithm for strategic voters which computes the best manipulative vote and maximizes the voter's selfish outcome when such a vote exists. We also provide a careful voting center which is aware of the possible manipulations and avoids manipulative queries when possible. In an empirical study on four real-world domains, we show that in practice manipulation occurs in a low percentage of settings and has a low impact on the final outcome. The careful voting center reduces manipulation even further, thus allowing for a non-distorted group decision process to take place. We thus provide a core technology study of a voting process that can be adopted in opinion or information aggregation systems and in crowdsourcing applications, e.g., peer grading in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs).