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Combining Machine Learning with Knowledge-Based Modeling for Scalable Forecasting and Subgrid-Scale Closure of Large, Complex, Spatiotemporal Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider the commonly encountered situation (e.g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous system states and an imperfect model of the full system dynamics. Specifically, we attempt to utilize machine learning as the essential tool for integrating the use of past data into predictions. In order to facilitate scalability to the common scenario of interest where the spatiotemporally chaotic system is very large and complex, we propose combining two approaches:(i) a parallel machine learning prediction scheme; and (ii) a hybrid technique, for a composite prediction system composed of a knowledge-based component and a machine-learning-based component. We demonstrate that not only can this method combining (i) and (ii) be scaled to give excellent performance for very large systems, but also that the length of time series data needed to train our multiple, parallel machine learning components is dramatically less than that necessary without parallelization. Furthermore, considering cases where computational realization of the knowledge-based component does not resolve subgrid-scale processes, our scheme is able to use training data to incorporate the effect of the unresolved short-scale dynamics upon the resolved longer-scale dynamics ("subgrid-scale closure").


iDCR: Improved Dempster Combination Rule for Multisensor Fault Diagnosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data gathered from multiple sensors can be effectively fused for accurate monitoring of many engineering applications. In the last few years, one of the most sought after applications for multi sensor fusion has been fault diagnosis. Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence along with Dempsters Combination Rule is a very popular method for multi sensor fusion which can be successfully applied to fault diagnosis. But if the information obtained from the different sensors shows high conflict, the classical Dempsters Combination Rule may produce counter-intuitive result. To overcome this shortcoming, this paper proposes an improved combination rule for multi sensor data fusion. Numerical examples have been put forward to show the effectiveness of the proposed method. Comparative analysis has also been carried out with existing methods to show the superiority of the proposed method in multi sensor fault diagnosis.


Superintelligent AI Is Still a Myth

#artificialintelligence

The common sense problem in AI is actually old, pretty much as old as the field itself. Turing himself alluded to it when he posed the problem of having a conversation--the Turing Test--as the proper aim of a matured and successful AI (though the term "AI" is an anachronism here; it was coined later). Old, or classic AI--all the work on AI done before the Web, basically--tried to tame common sense by adding concepts and rules to reason about concepts, known as "Knowledge Representation and Reasoning." This may seem silly today, but it's plausibly a more intuitive strategy for tackling common sense. One builds a large knowledge base with descriptions of alligators and races and legs and measurements and so on.


Bridging the Gap: Providing Post-Hoc Symbolic Explanations for Sequential Decision-Making Problems with Black Box Simulators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As more and more complex AI systems are introduced into our day-to-day lives, it becomes important that everyday users can work and interact with such systems with relative ease. Orchestrating such interactions require the system to be capable of providing explanations and rationale for its decisions and be able to field queries about alternative decisions. A significant hurdle to allowing for such explanatory dialogue could be the mismatch between the complex representations that the systems use to reason about the task and the terms in which the user may be viewing the task. This paper introduces methods that can be leveraged to provide contrastive explanations in terms of user-specified concepts for deterministic sequential decision-making settings where the system dynamics may be best represented in terms of black box simulators. We do this by assuming that system dynamics can at least be partly captured in terms of symbolic planning models, and we provide explanations in terms of these models. We implement this method using a simulator for a popular Atari game (Montezuma's Revenge) and perform user studies to verify whether people would find explanations generated in this form useful.


Interview with Pierre A. Lévy, French philosopher of collective intelligence

#artificialintelligence

'Collective intelligence' is defined as the capacity of human communities to cooperate intellectually in creation, innovation and invention. As our society becomes more and more knowledge-dependent, this collective ability becomes of fundamental importance. It is therefore vital to understand, among other things, how collective intelligence processes can be expanded by digital networks. It is one of the keys to success for modern societies. Pierre Lévy is one of the world's leading thinkers, not only in the vast area of cyberculture, but also in the fundamental field of knowledge and its processes. He was essentially the first to focus research on collective intelligence when it became a determining factor in the competitiveness, creativity and human development of knowledge-based societies. Michael Peters (MP): May I call you'Pierre'? Can you tell us something about your education, especially over the three institutions of your experience as a graduate?


Explainable Active Learning (XAL): An Empirical Study of How Local Explanations Impact Annotator Experience

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active Learning (AL) is a human-in-the-loop Machine Learning paradigm favored for its ability to learn with fewer labeled instances, but the model's states and progress remain opaque to the annotators. Meanwhile, many recognize the benefits of model transparency for people interacting with ML models, as reflected by the surge of explainable AI (XAI) as a research field. However, explaining an evolving model introduces many open questions regarding its impact on the annotation quality and the annotator's experience. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of explainable active learning (XAL), by explaining the learning algorithm's prediction for the instance it wants to learn from and soliciting feedback from the annotator. We conduct an empirical study comparing the model learning outcome, human feedback content and the annotator experience with XAL, to that of traditional AL and coactive learning (providing the model's prediction without the explanation). Our study reveals benefits--supporting trust calibration and enabling additional forms of human feedback, and potential drawbacks--anchoring effect and frustration from transparent model limitations--of providing local explanations in AL. We conclude by suggesting directions for developing explanations that better support annotator experience in AL and interactive ML settings.


PEL-BERT: A Joint Model for Protocol Entity Linking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pre-trained models such as BERT are widely used in NLP tasks and are fine-tuned to improve the performance of various NLP tasks consistently. Nevertheless, the fine-tuned BERT model trained on our protocol corpus still has a weak performance on the Entity Linking (EL) task. In this paper, we propose a model that joints a fine-tuned language model with an RFC Domain Model. Firstly, we design a Protocol Knowledge Base as the guideline for protocol EL. Secondly, we propose a novel model, PEL-BERT, to link named entities in protocols to categories in Protocol Knowledge Base. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive study on the performance of pre-trained language models on descriptive texts and abstract concepts. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in EL on our annotated dataset, outperforming all the baselines.


One Explanation Does Not Fit All: The Promise of Interactive Explanations for Machine Learning Transparency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The need for transparency of predictive systems based on Machine Learning algorithms arises as a consequence of their ever-increasing proliferation in the industry. Whenever black-box algorithmic predictions influence human affairs, the inner workings of these algorithms should be scrutinised and their decisions explained to the relevant stakeholders, including the system engineers, the system's operators and the individuals whose case is being decided. While a variety of interpretability and explainability methods is available, none of them is a panacea that can satisfy all diverse expectations and competing objectives that might be required by the parties involved. We address this challenge in this paper by discussing the promises of Interactive Machine Learning for improved transparency of black-box systems using the example of contrastive explanations -- a state-of-the-art approach to Interpretable Machine Learning. Specifically, we show how to personalise counterfactual explanations by interactively adjusting their conditional statements and extract additional explanations by asking follow-up "What if?" questions. Our experience in building, deploying and presenting this type of system allowed us to list desired properties as well as potential limitations, which can be used to guide the development of interactive explainers. While customising the medium of interaction, i.e., the user interface comprising of various communication channels, may give an impression of personalisation, we argue that adjusting the explanation itself and its content is more important. To this end, properties such as breadth, scope, context, purpose and target of the explanation have to be considered, in addition to explicitly informing the explainee about its limitations and caveats...


An interpretable semi-supervised classifier using two different strategies for amended self-labeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the context of some machine learning applications, obtaining data instances is a relatively easy process but labeling them could become quite expensive or tedious. Such scenarios lead to datasets with few labeled instances and a larger number of unlabeled ones. Semi-supervised classification techniques combine labeled and unlabeled data during the learning phase in order to increase classifier's generalization capability. Regrettably, most successful semi-supervised classifiers do not allow explaining their outcome, thus behaving like black boxes. However, there is an increasing number of problem domains in which experts demand a clear understanding of the decision process. In this paper, we report on an extended experimental study presenting an interpretable self-labeling grey-box classifier that uses a black box to estimate the missing class labels and a white box to make the final predictions. Two different approaches for amending the self-labeling process are explored: a first one based on the confidence of the black box and the latter one based on measures from Rough Set Theory. The results of the extended experimental study support the interpretability by means of transparency and simplicity of our classifier, while attaining superior prediction rates when compared with state-of-the-art self-labeling classifiers reported in the literature.


Consciousness and Automated Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper aims at demonstrating how a first-order logic reasoning system in combination with a large knowledge base can be understood as an artificial consciousness system. For this we review some aspects from the area of philosophy of mind and in particular Baars' Global Workspace Theory. This will be applied to the reasoning system Hyper with ConceptNet as a knowledge base. Finally we demonstrate that such a system is very well able to do conscious mind wandering.