We present a novel inference algorithm for arbitrary, binary, undirected graphs. Unlike loopy belief propagation, which iterates fixed point equations, we directly descend on the Bethe free energy. The algorithm consists of two phases, first we update the pairwise probabilities, given the marginal probabilities at each unit,using an analytic expression. Next, we update the marginal probabilities, given the pairwise probabilities by following the negative gradient of the Bethe free energy. Both steps are guaranteed to decrease the Bethe free energy, and since it is lower bounded, the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to a local minimum. We also show that the Bethe free energy is equal to the TAP free energy up to second order in the weights. In experiments we confirm that when belief propagation converges it usually finds identical solutions as our belief optimization method. However, in cases where belief propagation fails to converge, belief optimization continues to converge to reasonable beliefs. The stable nature of belief optimization makes it ideally suited for learning graphical models from data.

In this paper we analyze two recent axiomatic approaches proposed by Dubois et al and by Giang and Shenoy to qualitative decision making where uncertainty is described by possibility theory. Both axiomtizations are inspired by von Neumann and Morgenstern's system of axioms for the case of probability theory. We show that our approach naturally unifies two axiomatic systems that correspond respectively to pessimistic and optimistic decision criteria proposed by Dubois et al. The simplifying unification is achieved by (i) replacing axioms that are supposed to reflect two informational attitudes (uncertainty aversion and uncertainty attraction) by an axiom that imposes order on set of standard lotteries and (ii) using a binary utility scale in which each utility level is represented by a pair of numbers.

We propose a new approach to value-directed belief state approximation for POMDPs. The value-directed model allows one to choose approximation methods for belief state monitoring that have a small impact on decision quality. Using a vector space analysis of the problem, we devise two new search procedures for selecting an approximation scheme that have much better computational properties than existing methods. Though these provide looser error bounds, we show empirically that they have a similar impact on decision quality in practice, and run up to two orders of magnitude more quickly.

This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, "Expectation Propagation", unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief propagation, an extension of belief propagation in Bayesian networks. All three algorithms try to recover an approximate distribution which is close in KL divergence to the true distribution. Loopy belief propagation, because it propagates exact belief states, is useful for a limited class of belief networks, such as those which are purely discrete. Expectation Propagation approximates the belief states by only retaining certain expectations, such as mean and variance, and iterates until these expectations are consistent throughout the network. This makes it applicable to hybrid networks with discrete and continuous nodes. Expectation Propagation also extends belief propagation in the opposite direction - it can propagate richer belief states that incorporate correlations between nodes. Experiments with Gaussian mixture models show Expectation Propagation to be convincingly better than methods with similar computational cost: Laplace's method, variational Bayes, and Monte Carlo. Expectation Propagation also provides an efficient algorithm for training Bayes point machine classifiers.

The empirical success of the belief propagation approximate inference algorithm has inspired numerous theoretical and algorithmic advances. Yet, for continuous non-Gaussian domains performing belief propagation remains a challenging task: recent innovations such as nonparametric or kernel belief propagation, while useful, come with a substantial computational cost and offer little theoretical guarantees, even for tree structured models. In this work we present Nonparanormal BP for performing efficient inference on distributions parameterized by a Gaussian copulas network and any univariate marginals. For tree structured networks, our approach is guaranteed to be exact for this powerful class of non-Gaussian models. Importantly, the method is as efficient as standard Gaussian BP, and its convergence properties do not depend on the complexity of the univariate marginals, even when a nonparametric representation is used.

The sum-product or belief propagation (BP) algorithm is a widely used message-passing technique for computing approximate marginals in graphical models. We introduce a new technique, called stochastic orthogonal series message-passing (SOSMP), for computing the BP fixed point in models with continuous random variables. It is based on a deterministic approximation of the messages via orthogonal series expansion, and a stochastic approximation via Monte Carlo estimates of the integral updates of the basis coefficients. We prove that the SOSMP iterates converge to a \delta-neighborhood of the unique BP fixed point for any tree-structured graph, and for any graphs with cycles in which the BP updates satisfy a contractivity condition. In addition, we demonstrate how to choose the number of basis coefficients as a function of the desired approximation accuracy \delta and smoothness of the compatibility functions. We illustrate our theory with both simulated examples and in application to optical flow estimation.

There are several contexts of non-monotonic reasoning where a priority between rules is established whose purpose is preventing conflicts. One formalism that has been widely employed for non-monotonic reasoning is the sceptical one known as Defeasible Logic. In Defeasible Logic the tool used for conflict resolution is a preference relation between rules, that establishes the priority among them. In this paper we investigate how to modify such a preference relation in a defeasible logic theory in order to change the conclusions of the theory itself. We argue that the approach we adopt is applicable to legal reasoning where users, in general, cannot change facts or rules, but can propose their preferences about the relative strength of the rules. We provide a comprehensive study of the possible combinatorial cases and we identify and analyse the cases where the revision process is successful. After this analysis, we identify three revision/update operators and study them against the AGM postulates for belief revision operators, to discover that only a part of these postulates are satisfied by the three operators.

We look at the problem of revising fuzzy belief bases, i.e., belief base revision in which both formulas in the base as well as revision-input formulas can come attached with varying truth-degrees. Working within a very general framework for fuzzy logic which is able to capture a variety of types of inference under uncertainty, such as truth-functional fuzzy logics and certain types of probabilistic inference, we show how the idea of rational change from 'crisp' base revision, as embodied by the idea of partial meet revision, can be faithfully extended to revising fuzzy belief bases. We present and axiomatise an operation of partial meet fuzzy revision and illustrate how the operation works in several important special instances of the framework.

In Non - ergodic belief networks the posterior belief OF many queries given evidence may become zero.The paper shows that WHEN belief propagation IS applied iteratively OVER arbitrary networks(the so called, iterative OR loopy belief propagation(IBP)) it IS identical TO an arc - consistency algorithm relative TO zero - belief queries(namely assessing zero posterior probabilities). This implies that zero - belief conclusions derived BY belief propagation converge AND are sound.More importantly it suggests that the inference power OF IBP IS AS strong AND AS weak, AS that OF arc - consistency.This allows the synthesis OF belief networks FOR which belief propagation IS useless ON one hand, AND focuses the investigation OF classes OF belief network FOR which belief propagation may be zero - complete.Finally, ALL the above conclusions apply also TO Generalized belief propagation algorithms that extend loopy belief propagation AND allow a crisper understanding OF their power.

Computational models for goal recognition hold great promise for enhancing the capabilities of drama managers and director agents for interactive narratives. The problem of goal recognition, and its more general form, plan recognition, have been the subjects of extensive investigation in the AI community. However, relatively little effort has been undertaken to examine goal recognition in interactive narrative. In this paper, we propose a research agenda to improve the accuracy of goal recognition models for interactive narratives using explicit representations of narrative structure inspired by the natural language processing community. We describe a particular category of narrative representations, narrative schemas, that we anticipate will effectively capture patterns of player behavior in interactive narratives and improve the accuracy of goal recognition models.