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 Belief Revision


Credibility-Limited Revision for Epistemic Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider credibility-limited revision in the framework of belief change for epistemic spaces, permitting inconsistent belief sets and inconsistent beliefs. In this unrestricted setting, the class of credibility-limited revision operators does not include any AGM revision operators. We extend the class of credibility-limited revision operators in a way that all AGM revision operators are included while keeping the original spirit of credibility-limited revision. Extended credibility-limited revision operators are defined axiomatically. A semantic characterization of extended credibility-limited revision operators that employ total preorders on possible worlds is presented.


Particle Flows for Source Localization in 3-D Using TDOA Measurements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Localization using time-difference of arrival (TDOA) has myriad applications, e.g., in passive surveillance systems and marine mammal research. In this paper, we present a Bayesian estimation method that can localize an unknown number of static sources in 3-D based on TDOA measurements. The proposed localization algorithm based on particle flow (PFL) can overcome the challenges related to the highly nonlinear TDOA measurement model, the data association (DA) uncertainty, and the uncertainty in the number of sources to be localized. Different PFL strategies are compared within a unified belief propagation (BP) framework in a challenging multisensor source localization problem. In particular, we consider PFL-based approximation of beliefs based on one or multiple Gaussian kernels with parameters computed using deterministic and stochastic flow processes. Our numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method can correctly determine the number of sources and provide accurate location estimates. The stochastic flow demonstrates greater accuracy compared to the deterministic flow when using the same number of particles.


Reasoning with maximal consistent signatures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We analyse a specific instance of the general approach of reasoning based on forgetting by Lang and Marquis. More precisely, we discuss an approach for reasoning with inconsistent information using maximal consistent subsignatures, where a maximal consistent subsignature is a maximal set of propositions such that forgetting the remaining propositions restores consistency. We analyse maximal consistent subsignatures and the corresponding minimal inconsistent subsignatures in-depth and show, among others, that the hitting set duality applies for them as well. We further analyse inference relations based on maximal consistent subsignatures wrt. rationality postulates from non-monotonic reasoning and computational complexity. We also consider the relationship of our approach with inconsistency measurement and paraconsistent reasoning.


Fact Probability Vector Based Goal Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a new approach to goal recognition that involves comparing observed facts with their expected probabilities. These probabilities depend on a specified goal g and initial state s0. Our method maps these probabilities and observed facts into a real vector space to compute heuristic values for potential goals. These values estimate the likelihood of a given goal being the true objective of the observed agent. As obtaining exact expected probabilities for observed facts in an observation sequence is often practically infeasible, we propose and empirically validate a method for approximating these probabilities. Our empirical results show that the proposed approach offers improved goal recognition precision compared to state-of-the-art techniques while reducing computational complexity.


Advancing Interactive Explainable AI via Belief Change Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI models become ever more complex and intertwined in humans' daily lives, greater levels of interactivity of explainable AI (XAI) methods are needed. In this paper, we propose the use of belief change theory as a formal foundation for operators that model the incorporation of new information, i.e. user feedback in interactive XAI, to logical representations of data-driven classifiers. We argue that this type of formalisation provides a framework and a methodology to develop interactive explanations in a principled manner, providing warranted behaviour and favouring transparency and accountability of such interactions. Concretely, we first define a novel, logic-based formalism to represent explanatory information shared between humans and machines. We then consider real world scenarios for interactive XAI, with different prioritisations of new and existing knowledge, where our formalism may be instantiated. Finally, we analyse a core set of belief change postulates, discussing their suitability for our real world settings and pointing to particular challenges that may require the relaxation or reinterpretation of some of the theoretical assumptions underlying existing operators.


The Realizability of Revision and Contraction Operators in Epistemic Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the realizability of belief revision and belief contraction operators in epistemic spaces. We observe that AGM revision and AGM contraction operators for epistemic spaces are only realizable in precisely determined epistemic spaces. We define the class of linear change operators, a special kind of maxichoice operator. When AGM revision, respectively, AGM contraction, is realizable, linear change operators are a canonical realization.


ODGR: Online Dynamic Goal Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditionally, Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems are aimed at optimization of the behavior of an agent. This paper proposes a novel take on RL, which is used to learn the policy of another agent, to allow real-time recognition of that agent's goals. Goal Recognition (GR) has traditionally been framed as a planning problem where one must recognize an agent's objectives based on its observed actions. Recent approaches have shown how reinforcement learning can be used as part of the GR pipeline, but are limited to recognizing predefined goals and lack scalability in domains with a large goal space. This paper formulates a novel problem, "Online Dynamic Goal Recognition" (ODGR), as a first step to address these limitations. Contributions include introducing the concept of dynamic goals into the standard GR problem definition, revisiting common approaches by reformulating them using ODGR, and demonstrating the feasibility of solving ODGR in a navigation domain using transfer learning. These novel formulations open the door for future extensions of existing transfer learning-based GR methods, which will be robust to changing and expansive real-time environments.


Hyperion -- A fast, versatile symbolic Gaussian Belief Propagation framework for Continuous-Time SLAM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous-Time Simultaneous Localization And Mapping (CTSLAM) has become a promising approach for fusing asynchronous and multi-modal sensor suites. Unlike discrete-time SLAM, which estimates poses discretely, CTSLAM uses continuous-time motion parametrizations, facilitating the integration of a variety of sensors such as rolling-shutter cameras, event cameras and Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). However, CTSLAM approaches remain computationally demanding and are conventionally posed as centralized Non-Linear Least Squares (NLLS) optimizations. Targeting these limitations, we not only present the fastest SymForce-based [Martiros et al., RSS 2022] B- and Z-Spline implementations achieving speedups between 2.43x and 110.31x over Sommer et al. [CVPR 2020] but also implement a novel continuous-time Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) framework, coined Hyperion, which targets decentralized probabilistic inference across agents. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method in motion tracking and localization settings, complemented by empirical ablation studies.


kNN Classification of Malware Data Dependency Graph Features

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explainability in classification results are dependent upon the features used for classification. Data dependency graph features representing data movement are directly correlated with operational semantics, and subject to fine grained analysis. This study obtains accurate classification from the use of features tied to structure and semantics. By training an accurate model using labeled data, this feature representation of semantics is shown to be correlated with ground truth labels. This was performed using non-parametric learning with a novel feature representation on a large scale dataset, the Kaggle 2015 Malware dataset. The features used enable fine grained analysis, increase in resolution, and explainable inferences. This allows for the body of the term frequency distribution to be further analyzed and to provide an increase in feature resolution over term frequency features. This method obtains high accuracy from analysis of a single instruction, a method that can be repeated for additional instructions to obtain further increases in accuracy. This study evaluates the hypothesis that the semantic representation and analysis of structure are able to make accurate predications and are also correlated to ground truth labels. Additionally, similarity in the metric space can be calculated directly without prior training. Our results provide evidence that data dependency graphs accurately capture both semantic and structural information for increased explainability in classification results.


Belief Revision: The Adaptability of Large Language Models Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The capability to reason from text is crucial for real-world NLP applications. Real-world scenarios often involve incomplete or evolving data. In response, individuals update their beliefs and understandings accordingly. However, most existing evaluations assume that language models (LMs) operate with consistent information. We introduce Belief-R, a new dataset designed to test LMs' belief revision ability when presented with new evidence. Inspired by how humans suppress prior inferences, this task assesses LMs within the newly proposed delta reasoning ($\Delta R$) framework. Belief-R features sequences of premises designed to simulate scenarios where additional information could necessitate prior conclusions drawn by LMs. We evaluate $\sim$30 LMs across diverse prompting strategies and found that LMs generally struggle to appropriately revise their beliefs in response to new information. Further, models adept at updating often underperformed in scenarios without necessary updates, highlighting a critical trade-off. These insights underscore the importance of improving LMs' adaptiveness to changing information, a step toward more reliable AI systems.