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Neuro-Symbolic Traders: Assessing the Wisdom of AI Crowds in Markets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep generative models are becoming increasingly used as tools for financial analysis. However, it is unclear how these models will influence financial markets, especially when they infer financial value in a semi-autonomous way. In this work, we explore the interplay between deep generative models and market dynamics. We develop a form of virtual traders that use deep generative models to make buy/sell decisions, which we term neuro-symbolic traders, and expose them to a virtual market. Under our framework, neuro-symbolic traders are agents that use vision-language models to discover a model of the fundamental value of an asset. Agents develop this model as a stochastic differential equation, calibrated to market data using gradient descent. We test our neuro-symbolic traders on both synthetic data and real financial time series, including an equity stock, commodity, and a foreign exchange pair. We then expose several groups of neuro-symbolic traders to a virtual market environment. This market environment allows for feedback between the traders belief of the underlying value to the observed price dynamics. We find that this leads to price suppression compared to the historical data, highlighting a future risk to market stability. Our work is a first step towards quantifying the effect of deep generative agents on markets dynamics and sets out some of the potential risks and benefits of this approach in the future.


Teaching Models to Balance Resisting and Accepting Persuasion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are susceptible to persuasion, which can pose risks when models are faced with an adversarial interlocutor. We take a first step towards defending models against persuasion while also arguing that defense against adversarial (i.e. negative) persuasion is only half of the equation: models should also be able to accept beneficial (i.e. positive) persuasion to improve their answers. We show that optimizing models for only one side results in poor performance on the other. In order to balance positive and negative persuasion, we introduce Persuasion-Balanced Training (or PBT), which leverages multi-agent recursive dialogue trees to create data and trains models via preference optimization to accept persuasion when appropriate. PBT consistently improves resistance to misinformation and resilience to being challenged while also resulting in the best overall performance on holistic data containing both positive and negative persuasion. Crucially, we show that PBT models are better teammates in multi-agent debates. We find that without PBT, pairs of stronger and weaker models have unstable performance, with the order in which the models present their answers determining whether the team obtains the stronger or weaker model's performance. PBT leads to better and more stable results and less order dependence, with the stronger model consistently pulling the weaker one up.


CybORG++: An Enhanced Gym for the Development of Autonomous Cyber Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

CybORG++ is an advanced toolkit for reinforcement learning research focused on network defence. Building on the CAGE 2 CybORG environment, it introduces key improvements, including enhanced debugging capabilities, refined agent implementation support, and a streamlined environment that enables faster training and easier customisation. Along with addressing several software bugs from its predecessor, CybORG++ introduces MiniCAGE, a lightweight version of CAGE 2, which improves performance dramatically, up to 1000x faster execution in parallel iterations, without sacrificing accuracy or core functionality. CybORG++ serves as a robust platform for developing and evaluating defensive agents, making it a valuable resource for advancing enterprise network defence research.


Computational Grounding of Responsibility Attribution and Anticipation in LTLf

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Responsibility is one of the key notions in machine ethics and in the area of autonomous systems. It is a multi-faceted notion involving counterfactual reasoning about actions and strategies. In this paper, we study different variants of responsibility in a strategic setting based on LTLf. We show a connection with notions in reactive synthesis, including synthesis of winning, dominant, and best-effort strategies. This connection provides the building blocks for a computational grounding of responsibility including complexity characterizations and sound, complete, and optimal algorithms for attributing and anticipating responsibility.


A Model Checker for Natural Strategic Ability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the last two decades, Alternating-time Temporal Logic (ATL) has been proved to be very useful in modeling strategic reasoning for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS). However, this logic struggles to capture the bounded rationality inherent in human decision-making processes. To overcome these limitations, Natural Alternating-time Temporal Logic (NatATL) has been recently introduced. As an extension of ATL, NatATL incorporates bounded memory constraints into agents' strategies, which allows to resemble human cognitive limitations. In this paper, we present a model checker tool for NatATL specifications - both for memoryless strategies and strategies with recall - integrated into VITAMIN, an open-source model checker designed specifically for MAS verification. By embedding NatATL into VITAMIN, we transform theoretical advancements into a practical verification framework, enabling comprehensive analysis and validation of strategic reasoning in complex multi-agent environments. Our novel tool paves the way for applications in areas such as explainable AI and human-in-the-loop systems, highlighting NatATL's substantial potential.


Game Theory with Simulation in the Presence of Unpredictable Randomisation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI agents will be predictable in certain ways that traditional agents are not. Where and how can we leverage this predictability in order to improve social welfare? We study this question in a game-theoretic setting where one agent can pay a fixed cost to simulate the other in order to learn its mixed strategy. As a negative result, we prove that, in contrast to prior work on pure-strategy simulation, enabling mixed-strategy simulation may no longer lead to improved outcomes for both players in all so-called "generalised trust games". In fact, mixed-strategy simulation does not help in any game where the simulatee's action can depend on that of the simulator. We also show that, in general, deciding whether simulation introduces Pareto-improving Nash equilibria in a given game is NP-hard. As positive results, we establish that mixed-strategy simulation can improve social welfare if the simulator has the option to scale their level of trust, if the players face challenges with both trust and coordination, or if maintaining some level of privacy is essential for enabling cooperation.


MARLIN: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Guided by Language-Based Inter-Robot Negotiation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent reinforcement learning is a key method for training multi-robot systems over a series of episodes in which robots are rewarded or punished according to their performance; only once the system is trained to a suitable standard is it deployed in the real world. If the system is not trained enough, the task will likely not be completed and could pose a risk to the surrounding environment. Therefore, reaching high performance in a shorter training period can lead to significant reductions in time and resource consumption. We introduce Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning guided by Language-based Inter-Robot Negotiation (MARLIN), which makes the training process both faster and more transparent. We equip robots with large language models that negotiate and debate the task, producing a plan that is used to guide the policy during training. We dynamically switch between using reinforcement learning and the negotiation-based approach throughout training. This offers an increase in training speed when compared to standard multi-agent reinforcement learning and allows the system to be deployed to physical hardware earlier. As robots negotiate in natural language, we can better understand the behaviour of the robots individually and as a collective. We compare the performance of our approach to multi-agent reinforcement learning and a large language model to show that our hybrid method trains faster at little cost to performance.


A Survey of Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning with Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Communication is an effective mechanism for coordinating the behaviors of multiple agents, broadening their views of the environment, and to support their collaborations. In the field of multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MADRL), agents can improve the overall learning performance and achieve their objectives by communication. Agents can communicate various types of messages, either to all agents or to specific agent groups, or conditioned on specific constraints. With the growing body of research work in MADRL with communication (Comm-MADRL), there is a lack of a systematic and structural approach to distinguish and classify existing Comm-MADRL approaches. In this paper, we survey recent works in the Comm-MADRL field and consider various aspects of communication that can play a role in designing and developing multi-agent reinforcement learning systems. With these aspects in mind, we propose 9 dimensions along which Comm-MADRL approaches can be analyzed, developed, and compared. By projecting existing works into the multi-dimensional space, we discover interesting trends. We also propose some novel directions for designing future Comm-MADRL systems through exploring possible combinations of the dimensions.


Debug Smarter, Not Harder: AI Agents for Error Resolution in Computational Notebooks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computational notebooks became indispensable tools for research-related development, offering unprecedented interactivity and flexibility in the development process. However, these benefits come at the cost of reproducibility and an increased potential for bugs. With the rise of code-fluent Large Language Models empowered with agentic techniques, smart bug-fixing tools with a high level of autonomy have emerged. However, those tools are tuned for classical script programming and still struggle with non-linear computational notebooks. In this paper, we present an AI agent designed specifically for error resolution in a computational notebook. We have developed an agentic system capable of exploring a notebook environment by interacting with it -- similar to how a user would -- and integrated the system into the JetBrains service for collaborative data science called Datalore. We evaluate our approach against the pre-existing single-action solution by comparing costs and conducting a user study. Users rate the error resolution capabilities of the agentic system higher but experience difficulties with UI. We share the results of the study and consider them valuable for further improving user-agent collaboration.


Transfer Reinforcement Learning in Heterogeneous Action Spaces using Subgoal Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we consider a transfer reinforcement learning problem involving agents with different action spaces. Specifically, for any new unseen task, the goal is to use a successful demonstration of this task by an expert agent in its action space to enable a learner agent learn an optimal policy in its own different action space with fewer samples than those required if the learner was learning on its own. Existing transfer learning methods across different action spaces either require handcrafted mappings between those action spaces provided by human experts, which can induce bias in the learning procedure, or require the expert agent to share its policy parameters with the learner agent, which does not generalize well to unseen tasks. In this work, we propose a method that learns a subgoal mapping between the expert agent policy and the learner agent policy. Since the expert agent and the learner agent have different action spaces, their optimal policies can have different subgoal trajectories. We learn this subgoal mapping by training a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network for a distribution of tasks and then use this mapping to predict the learner subgoal sequence for unseen tasks, thereby improving the speed of learning by biasing the agent's policy towards the predicted learner subgoal sequence. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed learning scheme can effectively find the subgoal mapping underlying the given distribution of tasks. Moreover, letting the learner agent imitate the expert agent's policy with the learnt subgoal mapping can significantly improve the sample efficiency and training time of the learner agent in unseen new tasks.