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A Microscopic Pandemic Simulator for Pandemic Prediction Using Scalable Million-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Microscopic epidemic models are powerful tools for government policy makers to predict and simulate epidemic outbreaks, which can capture the impact of individual behaviors on the macroscopic phenomenon. However, existing models only consider simple rule-based individual behaviors, limiting their applicability. This paper proposes a deep-reinforcement-learning-powered microscopic model named Microscopic Pandemic Simulator (MPS). By replacing rule-based agents with rational agents whose behaviors are driven to maximize rewards, the MPS provides a better approximation of real world dynamics. To efficiently simulate with massive amounts of agents in MPS, we propose Scalable Million-Agent DQN (SMADQN). The MPS allows us to efficiently evaluate the impact of different government strategies. This paper first calibrates the MPS against real-world data in Allegheny, US, then demonstratively evaluates two government strategies: information disclosure and quarantine. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. As a broad impact, this paper provides novel insights for the application of DRL in large scale agent-based networks such as economic and social networks.


Optimal and Efficient Algorithms for General Mixable Losses against Switching Oracles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the problem of online learning, which has gained significant attention in recent years due to its applicability in a wide range of fields from machine learning to game theory. Specifically, we study the online optimization of mixable loss functions in a dynamic environment. We introduce online mixture schemes that asymptotically achieves the performance of the best dynamic estimation sequence of the switching oracle with optimal regret redundancies. The best dynamic estimation sequence that we compete against is selected in hindsight with full observation of the loss functions and is allowed to select different optimal estimations in different time intervals (segments). We propose two mixtures in our work. Firstly, we propose a tractable polynomial time complexity algorithm that can achieve the optimal redundancy of the intractable brute force approach. Secondly, we propose an efficient logarithmic time complexity algorithm that can achieve the optimal redundancy up to a constant multiplicity gap. Our results are guaranteed to hold in a strong deterministic sense in an individual sequence manner.


Detecting socially interacting groups using f-formation: A survey of taxonomy, methods, datasets, applications, challenges, and future research directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robots in our daily surroundings are increasing day by day. Their usability and acceptability largely depend on their explicit and implicit interaction capability with fellow human beings. As a result, social behavior is one of the most sought-after qualities that a robot can possess. However, there is no specific aspect and/or feature that defines socially acceptable behavior and it largely depends on the situation, application, and society. In this article, we investigate one such social behavior for collocated robots. Imagine a group of people is interacting with each other and we want to join the group. We as human beings do it in a socially acceptable manner, i.e., within the group, we do position ourselves in such a way that we can participate in the group activity without disturbing/obstructing anybody. To possess such a quality, first, a robot needs to determine the formation of the group and then determine a position for itself, which we humans do implicitly. The theory of f-formation can be utilized for this purpose. As the types of formations can be very diverse, detecting the social groups is not a trivial task. In this article, we provide a comprehensive survey of the existing work on social interaction and group detection using f-formation for robotics and other applications. We also put forward a novel holistic survey framework combining all the possible concerns and modules relevant to this problem. We define taxonomies based on methods, camera views, datasets, detection capabilities and scale, evaluation approaches, and application areas. We discuss certain open challenges and limitations in current literature along with possible future research directions based on this framework. In particular, we discuss the existing methods/techniques and their relative merits and demerits, applications, and provide a set of unsolved but relevant problems in this domain.


Q-Mixing Network for Multi-Agent Pathfinding in Partially Observable Grid Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we consider the problem of multi-agent navigation in partially observable grid environments. This problem is challenging for centralized planning approaches as they, typically, rely on the full knowledge of the environment. We suggest utilizing the reinforcement learning approach when the agents, first, learn the policies that map observations to actions and then follow these policies to reach their goals. To tackle the challenge associated with learning cooperative behavior, i.e. in many cases agents need to yield to each other to accomplish a mission, we use a mixing Q-network that complements learning individual policies. In the experimental evaluation, we show that such approach leads to plausible results and scales well to large number of agents.


Set-to-Sequence Methods in Machine Learning: A Review

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Machine learning on sets towards sequential output is an important and ubiquitous task, with applications ranging from language modelling and meta-learning to multi-agent strategy games and power grid optimization. Combining elements of representation learning and structured prediction, its two primary challenges include obtaining a meaningful, permutation invariant set representation and subsequently utilizing this representation to output a complex target permutation. This paper provides a comprehensive introduction to the field as well as an overview of important machine learning methods tackling both of these key challenges, with a detailed qualitative comparison of selected model architectures.


Co-GAIL: Learning Diverse Strategies for Human-Robot Collaboration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Advancing technologies for human-robot collaboration (HRC) has the potential to unlock applications with large societal impact in manufacturing, hospitals, and home settings [1, 2]. However, robots that are designed to work around humans are still limited in versatility when performing collaborative tasks. Recent advances in robot learning focus on robots that work in isolation [3, 4, 5, 6] or alongside other agents that do not exhibit human traits [7, 8, 9, 10]. Learning to collaborate with humans presents unique challenges to existing robot learning methods: instead of optimizing only for efficient task completion, the robot assistant must act in coordination and adapt to the diversity of strategies and movements of their human counterparts. This work aims to develop robot assistants that adapt to diverse human strategies and movements in collaborative manipulation tasks.


Seven challenges for harmonizing explainability requirements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Regulators have signalled an interest in adopting explainable AI(XAI) techniques to handle the diverse needs for model governance, operational servicing, and compliance in the financial services industry. In this short overview, we review the recent technical literature in XAI and argue that based on our current understanding of the field, the use of XAI techniques in practice necessitate a highly contextualized approach considering the specific needs of stakeholders for particular business applications.


Friddy multiagent price stabilization model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conventionally, the topic of currency price stabilization was always researched from a microeconomics point of view [22]. The research relies on supply demand, to as a control of price in the perspective of economics trend. In supply demand curves, if the price is higher than an equilibrium, then simply there is excess that means the price should move to closer to the equilibrium point. In our coin context equilibrium price, the quantity of Friddy coins sought by consumers is equal to the quantity of Friddy coins supplied in the network. And that also means no actors in the network has an incentive to alter price or quantity at the equilibrium. Naturally, in this case the price determined by a market mechanism, simply named the supply-demand theory.


Prioritized SIPP for Multi-Agent Path Finding With Kinematic Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) is a long-standing problem in Robotics and Artificial Intelligence in which one needs to find a set of collision-free paths for a group of mobile agents (robots) operating in the shared workspace. Due to its importance, the problem is well-studied and multiple optimal and approximate algorithms are known. However, many of them abstract away from the kinematic constraints and assume that the agents can accelerate/decelerate instantaneously. This complicates the application of the algorithms on the real robots. In this paper, we present a method that mitigates this issue to a certain extent. The suggested solver is essentially, a prioritized planner based on the well-known Safe Interval Path Planning (SIPP) algorithm. Within SIPP we explicitly reason about the speed and the acceleration thus the constructed plans directly take kinematic constraints of agents into account. We suggest a range of heuristic functions for that setting and conduct a thorough empirical evaluation of the suggested algorithm.


Frequency-based tension assessment of an inclined cable with complex boundary conditions using the PSO algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The frequency-based method is the most commonly used method for measuring cable tension. However, the calculation formulas for the conventional frequency-based method are generally based on the ideally hinged or fixed boundary conditions without a comprehensive consideration of the inclination angle, sag-extensibility, and flexural stiffness of cables, leading to a significant error in cable tension identification. This study aimed to propose a frequency-based method of cable tension identification considering the complex boundary conditions at the two ends of cables using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. First, the refined stay cable model was established considering the inclination angle, flexural stiffness, and sag-extensibility, as well as the rotational constraint stiffness and lateral support stiffness for the unknown boundaries of cables. The vibration mode equation of the stay cable model was discretized and solved using the finite difference method. Then, a multiparameter identification method based on the PSO algorithm was proposed. This method was able to identify the tension, flexural stiffness, axial stiffness, boundary rotational constraint stiffness, and boundary lateral support stiffness according to the measured multiorder frequencies in a synchronous manner. The feasibility and accuracy of this method were validated through numerical cases. Finally, the proposed approach was applied to the tension identification of the anchor span strands of a suspension bridge (Jindong Bridge) in China. The results of cable tension identification using the proposed method and the existing methods discussed in previous studies were compared with the on-site pressure ring measurement results. The comparison showed that the proposed approach had a high accuracy in cable tension identification.