Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents challenges, including incomplete data, poor data quality, and the need to account for multiple geographical and product factors. Current methods often rely on simple forecasting techniques, which fail to capture demand uncertainties arising from these factors, warranting expert involvement. Our study aims to improve contraceptive demand forecasting by combining probabilistic forecasting methods with expert knowledge. We developed a hybrid model that combines point forecasts from domain-specific model with probabilistic distributions from statistical and machine learning approaches, enabling human input to fine-tune and enhance the system-generated forecasts. This approach helps address the uncertainties in demand and is particularly useful in resource-limited settings. We evaluate different forecasting methods, including time series, Bayesian, machine learning, and foundational time series methods alongside our new hybrid approach. By comparing these methods, we provide insights into their strengths, weaknesses, and computational requirements. Our research fills a gap in forecasting contraceptive demand and offers a practical framework that combines algorithmic and human expertise. Our proposed model can also be generalized to other humanitarian contexts with similar data patterns.

Integrating large language models (LLMs) into closed-loop robotic task planning has become increasingly popular within embodied artificial intelligence. Previous efforts mainly focused on leveraging the strong reasoning abilities of LLMs to enhance task planning performance while often overlooking task planning efficiency and executability due to repetitive queries to LLMs. This paper addresses the synergy between LLMs and task planning systems, aiming to minimize redundancy while enhancing planning effectiveness. Specifically, building upon Prog-Prompt and the high-level concept of Tree-Planner, we propose Vote-Tree-Planner. This sampling strategy utilizes votes to guide plan traversal during the decision-making process. Our approach is motivated by a straightforward observation: assigning weights to agents during decision-making enables the evaluation of critical paths before execution. With this simple vote-tree construction, our method further improves the success rate and reduces the number of queries to LLMs. The experimental results highlight that our Vote-Tree-Planner demonstrates greater stability and shows a higher average success rate and goal condition recall on the unseen dataset compared with previous baseline methods. These findings underscore the potential of the Vote-Tree-Planner to enhance planning accuracy, reliability, and efficiency in LLM-based planning systems.

We propose a novel reinforcement learning framework for post training large language models that does not rely on human in the loop feedback. Instead, our approach uses cross attention signals within the model itself to derive a self supervised reward, thereby guiding iterative fine tuning of the model policy. By analyzing how the model attends to the input prompt during generation, we construct measures of prompt coverage, focus, and coherence. We then use these measures to rank or score candidate responses, providing a reward signal that encourages the model to produce well aligned, on topic text. In empirical comparisons against standard policy gradient methods and RL fine tuning with synthetic preference models, our method shows significant gains in prompt relevance and consistency over a non RL baseline. While it does not yet match the performance of fully human supervised RLHF systems, it highlights an important direction for scaling alignment with minimal human labeling. We provide a detailed analysis, discuss potential limitations, and outline future work for combining cross-attention based signals with smaller amounts of human feedback.

Emotional states influence human behaviour and cognition, leading to diverse thought trajectories. Similarly, Large Language Models (LLMs) showcase an excellent level of response consistency across wide-ranging contexts (prompts). We leverage these parallels to establish a framework for quantifying mental states. Our approach utilises self-report questionnaires that reliably assess these states due to their inherent sensitivity to patterns of co-occurring responses. Specifically, we recruited a large sample of participants (N=422) to investigate how well an LLM (Mistral-7B-OpenOrca) quantifies a heterogenous set of depressive mood states measured with participants' open-ended responses to a depression questionnaire. We show LLM responses to held-out multiple-choice questions, given participants' open-ended answers, correlate strongly (r: 0.52-0.84) with true questionnaire scores, demonstrating LLM's generalisation from mood representations. We explore a link between these representations and factor analysis. Using ridge regression, we find depression-related subspaces within LLM hidden states. We show these subspaces to be predictive of participants' "Depression" and "Somatic & Emotional Distress" factor scores, as well as suicidality severity. Overall, LLMs can provide quantitative measures of mental states. The reliability of these hinges upon how informative the questions we ask participants are. Used correctly, this approach could supplement mental state assessment in a variety of settings.

We propose MUltiway Dynamic Dense (MUDD) connections, a simple yet effective method to address the limitations of residual connections and enhance cross-layer information flow in Transformers. Unlike existing dense connection approaches with static and shared connection weights, MUDD generates connection weights dynamically depending on hidden states at each sequence position and for each decoupled input stream (the query, key, value or residual) of a Transformer block. MUDD connections can be seamlessly integrated into any Transformer architecture to create MUDDFormer. Extensive experiments show that MUDDFormer significantly outperforms Transformers across various model architectures and scales in language modeling, achieving the performance of Transformers trained with 1.8X-2.4X compute. Notably, MUDDPythia-2.8B matches Pythia-6.9B in pretraining ppl and downstream tasks and even rivals Pythia-12B in five-shot settings, while adding only 0.23% parameters and 0.4% computation. Code in JAX and PyTorch and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/Caiyun-AI/MUDDFormer .

One of the goals of automatic evaluation metrics in grammatical error correction (GEC) is to rank GEC systems such that it matches human preferences. However, current automatic evaluations are based on procedures that diverge from human evaluation. Specifically, human evaluation derives rankings by aggregating sentence-level relative evaluation results, e.g., pairwise comparisons, using a rating algorithm, whereas automatic evaluation averages sentence-level absolute scores to obtain corpus-level scores, which are then sorted to determine rankings. In this study, we propose an aggregation method for existing automatic evaluation metrics which aligns with human evaluation methods to bridge this gap. We conducted experiments using various metrics, including edit-based metrics, $n$-gram based metrics, and sentence-level metrics, and show that resolving the gap improves results for the most of metrics on the SEEDA benchmark. We also found that even BERT-based metrics sometimes outperform the metrics of GPT-4. We publish our unified implementation of the metrics and meta-evaluations.

Multimodal AI is an important step towards building effective tools to leverage multiple modalities in human-AI communication. Building a multimodal document-grounded AI system to interact with long documents remains a challenge. Our work aims to fill the research gap of directly leveraging grounded visuals from documents alongside textual content in documents for response generation. We present an interactive conversational AI agent 'MuDoC' based on GPT-4o to generate document-grounded responses with interleaved text and figures. MuDoC's intelligent textbook interface promotes trustworthiness and enables verification of system responses by allowing instant navigation to source text and figures in the documents. We also discuss qualitative observations based on MuDoC responses highlighting its strengths and limitations.

Role-playing language agents (RPLAs) have emerged as promising applications of large language models (LLMs). However, simulating established characters presents a challenging task for RPLAs, due to the lack of authentic character datasets and nuanced evaluation methods using such data. In this paper, we present CoSER, a collection of a high-quality dataset, open models, and an evaluation protocol towards effective RPLAs of established characters. The CoSER dataset covers 17,966 characters from 771 renowned books. It provides authentic dialogues with real-world intricacies, as well as diverse data types such as conversation setups, character experiences and internal thoughts. Drawing from acting methodology, we introduce given-circumstance acting for training and evaluating role-playing LLMs, where LLMs sequentially portray multiple characters in book scenes. Using our dataset, we develop CoSER 8B and CoSER 70B, i.e., advanced open role-playing LLMs built on LLaMA-3.1 models. Extensive experiments demonstrate the value of the CoSER dataset for RPLA training, evaluation and retrieval. Moreover, CoSER 70B exhibits state-of-the-art performance surpassing or matching GPT-4o on our evaluation and three existing benchmarks, i.e., achieving 75.80% and 93.47% accuracy on the InCharacter and LifeChoice benchmarks respectively.

Despite advances in the multilingual capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks, English remains the dominant language for LLM research and development. So, when working with a different language, this has led to the widespread practice of pre-translation, i.e., translating the task prompt into English before inference. Selective pre-translation, a more surgical approach, focuses on translating specific prompt components. However, its current use is sporagic and lacks a systematic research foundation. Consequently, the optimal pre-translation strategy for various multilingual settings and tasks remains unclear. In this work, we aim to uncover the optimal setup for pre-translation by systematically assessing its use. Specifically, we view the prompt as a modular entity, composed of four functional parts: instruction, context, examples, and output, either of which could be translated or not. We evaluate pre-translation strategies across 35 languages covering both low and high-resource languages, on various tasks including Question Answering (QA), Natural Language Inference (NLI), Named Entity Recognition (NER), and Abstractive Summarization. Our experiments show the impact of factors as similarity to English, translation quality and the size of pre-trained data, on the model performance with pre-translation. We suggest practical guidelines for choosing optimal strategies in various multilingual settings.

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are essential for understanding biomolecular systems but remain challenging to automate. Recent advances in large language models (LLM) have demonstrated success in automating complex scientific tasks using LLM-based agents. In this paper, we introduce MDCrow, an agentic LLM assistant capable of automating MD workflows. MDCrow uses chain-of-thought over 40 expert-designed tools for handling and processing files, setting up simulations, analyzing the simulation outputs, and retrieving relevant information from literature and databases. We assess MDCrow's performance across 25 tasks of varying required subtasks and difficulty, and we evaluate the agent's robustness to both difficulty and prompt style. \texttt{gpt-4o} is able to complete complex tasks with low variance, followed closely by \texttt{llama3-405b}, a compelling open-source model. While prompt style does not influence the best models' performance, it has significant effects on smaller models.