We tackle the problem of forecasting bimanual 3D hand motion & articulation from a single image in everyday settings. To address the lack of 3D hand annotations in diverse settings, we design an annotation pipeline consisting of a diffusion model to lift 2D hand keypoint sequences to 4D hand motion. For the forecasting model, we adopt a diffusion loss to account for the multimodality in hand motion distribution. Extensive experiments across 6 datasets show the benefits of training on diverse data with imputed labels (14% improvement) and effectiveness of our lifting (42% better) & forecasting (16.4% gain) models, over the best baselines, especially in zero-shot generalization to everyday images.

LLMs are powerful generators of synthetic data, which are used for training smaller, specific models. This is especially valuable for low-resource languages, where human-labelled data is scarce but LLMs can still produce high-quality text. However, LLMs differ in how useful their outputs are for training. Selecting the best LLM as a generator is challenging because extrinsic evaluation requires costly human annotations (which are often unavailable for low-resource languages), while intrinsic metrics correlate poorly with downstream performance. We introduce Round robin Synthetic data Evaluation (RoSE), a proxy metric for selecting the best LLM generator without human test sets. RoSE trains a small model on the outputs of a candidate generator (LLM) and then evaluates it on generated synthetic examples from all other candidate LLMs. The final RoSE score is the mean performance of this small model. Across six LLMs, eleven languages, and three tasks (sentiment, topic, intent), RoSE identifies the optimal generator more often than any other intrinsic heuristics. RoSE outperforms intrinsic heuristics and comes within 0.76 percentage points of the optimal generator baseline. This result is measured in terms of downstream performance, obtained by training a small model on the chosen generator's outputs (optimal vs. proxy metric selected) and evaluating it on human-labelled test data. Additionally, RoSE is the only metric to achieve a positive correlation with performance on human test data.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) generate text through iterative denoising steps, achieving parallel decoding by denoising only high-confidence positions at each step. However, existing approaches often repetitively remask tokens due to initially low confidence scores, leading to redundant iterations and limiting overall acceleration. Through the analysis of dLLM decoding traces, we observe that the model often determines the final prediction for a token several steps before the decoding step. To leverage this historical information and avoid redundant steps, we introduce the concept of Trace Credit, which quantifies each token's convergence potential by accumulating historical logits. Furthermore, we propose CreditDecoding, a training-free parallel decoding algorithm that accelerates the confidence convergence of correct but underconfident tokens by fusing current logits with Trace Credit. This process significantly reduces redundant iterations and enhances decoding robustness. On eight benchmarks, CreditDecoding achieves a 5.48 times speedup and a 0.48 performance improvement over LLaDA-8B-Instruct, and a 4.11 times speedup with a 0.15 performance improvement over LLaDA-MoE-Instruct. Importantly, CreditDecoding scales effectively to long sequences and is orthogonal to mainstream inference optimizations, making it a readily integrable and versatile solution.

Tokenization defines the foundation of multilingual language models by determining how words are represented and shared across languages. However, existing methods often fail to support effective cross-lingual transfer because semantically equivalent words are assigned distinct embeddings. For example, "I eat rice" in English and "Ina cin shinkafa" in Hausa are typically mapped to different vocabulary indices, preventing shared representations and limiting cross-lingual generalization. We introduce parallel tokenizers. This new framework trains tokenizers monolingually and then aligns their vocabularies exhaustively using bilingual dictionaries or word-to-word translation, ensuring consistent indices for semantically equivalent words. This alignment enforces a shared semantic space across languages while naturally improving fertility balance. To assess their effectiveness, we pretrain a transformer encoder from scratch on thirteen low-resource languages and evaluate it on sentiment analysis, hate speech detection, emotion classification, and sentence embedding similarity. Across all tasks, models trained with parallel tokenizers outperform conventional multilingual baselines, confirming that rethinking tokenization is essential for advancing multilingual representation learning--especially in low-resource settings.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly shaping how information is created and disseminated, from companies using them to craft persuasive advertisements, to election campaigns optimizing messaging to gain votes, to social media influencers boosting engagement. These settings are inherently competitive, with sellers, candidates, and influencers vying for audience approval, yet it remains poorly understood how competitive feedback loops influence LLM behavior. We show that optimizing LLMs for competitive success can inadvertently drive misalignment. Using simulated environments across these scenarios, we find that, 6.3% increase in sales is accompanied by a 14.0% rise in deceptive marketing; in elections, a 4.9% gain in vote share coincides with 22.3% more disinformation and 12.5% more populist rhetoric; and on social media, a 7.5% engagement boost comes with 188.6% more disinformation and a 16.3% increase in promotion of harmful behaviors. We call this phenomenon Moloch's Bargain for AI--competitive success achieved at the cost of alignment. These misaligned behaviors emerge even when models are explicitly instructed to remain truthful and grounded, revealing the fragility of current alignment safeguards. Our findings highlight how market-driven optimization pressures can systematically erode alignment, creating a race to the bottom, and suggest that safe deployment of AI systems will require stronger governance and carefully designed incentives to prevent competitive dynamics from undermining societal trust. There are clear economic and social incentives to optimize LLMs and AI agents for competitive markets: A company can increase its profits by generating more persuasive sales pitches, a candidate can capture a larger share of voters with sharper campaign messaging, and an influencer can boost engagement by producing more compelling social media content. In the presence of both the technology and the incentives, it is natural to expect adoption to move rapidly in this direction. In contrast, the incentives to ensure safety are far weaker. The costs of social hazards--such as deceptive product representation and disinformation on social media--are typically borne by the public rather than the organizations deploying these systems, who may be held accountable only when found legally liable. In this paper, we investigate the critical question: Can optimization for market success inadvertently produce misaligned LLMs? We experimentally show that misalignment consistently emerges from market competition across three different settings.

Distilling the thinking traces of a Large Language Model (LLM) with reasoning capabilities into a smaller model has been proven effective. Yet, there is a scarcity of work done on how model performances scale with the quantity of distillation data. In this work, we study the scaling trend of distilling competitive coding skills on two small non-reasoning LLMs. We validate the hypothesis that there is a $\textit{valley of code reasoning}$: downstream performance on competitive coding first drops as data quantity increases, then it steadily increases in a sharper-than-log-linear fashion. Having identified the trend, we further fine-tune the models at two different distillation stages on the same data to ground conclusions on their respective learning phases. We learn that across stages in the low and medium-low data regimes, small models benefit significantly from easier coding questions than from harder ones. We also find that, surprisingly, the correctness of outputs in training data makes no difference to distillation outcomes. Our work represents a step forward in understanding the training dynamics of code reasoning distillation outside intuition

As algorithmic decision-makers are increasingly applied to high-stakes domains, AI alignment research has evolved from a focus on universal value alignment to context-specific approaches that account for decision-maker attributes. Prior work on Decision-Maker Alignment (DMA) has explored two primary strategies: (1) classical AI methods integrating case-based reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, and naturalistic decision-making, and (2) large language model (LLM)-based methods leveraging prompt engineering. While both approaches have shown promise in limited domains such as medical triage, their generalizability to novel contexts remains underexplored. In this work, we implement a prior classical AI model and develop an LLM-based algorithmic decision-maker evaluated using a large reasoning model (GPT -5) and a non-reasoning model (GPT -4) with weighted self-consistency under a zero-shot prompting framework, as proposed in recent literature. We evaluate both approaches on a health insurance decision-making dataset annotated for three target decision-makers with varying levels of risk tolerance (0.0, 0.5, 1.0). In the experiments reported herein, classical AI and LLM-based models achieved comparable alignment with attribute-based targets, with classical AI exhibiting slightly better alignment for a moderate risk profile.

Route recommendation aims to provide users with optimal travel plans that satisfy diverse and complex requirements. Classical routing algorithms (e.g., shortest-path and constraint-aware search) are efficient but assume structured inputs and fixed objectives, limiting adaptability to natural-language queries. Recent LLM-based approaches enhance flexibility but struggle with spatial reasoning and the joint modeling of route-level and POI-level preferences. To address these limitations, we propose RouteLLM, a hierarchical multi-agent framework that grounds natural-language intents into constraint-aware routes. It first parses user queries into structured intents including POIs, paths, and constraints. A manager agent then coordinates specialized sub-agents: a constraint agent that resolves and formally check constraints, a POI agent that retrieves and ranks candidate POIs, and a path refinement agent that refines routes via a routing engine with preference-conditioned costs. A final verifier agent ensures constraint satisfaction and produces the final route with an interpretable rationale. This design bridges linguistic flexibility and spatial structure, enabling reasoning over route feasibility and user preferences. Experiments show that our method reliably grounds textual preferences into constraint-aware routes, improving route quality and preference satisfaction over classical methods.

Video reasoning, the task of enabling machines to infer from dynamic visual content through multi-step logic, is crucial for advanced AI. While the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) mechanism has enhanced reasoning in text-based tasks, its application to video understanding remains underexplored. This paper presents a systematic analysis revealing that CoT often degrades performance in video reasoning, generating verbose but misleading internal monologues, and leading to hallucinated visual details and overridden correct intuitions - a phenomenon we term "visual thinking drift". We explain this drift through a Bayesian lens, positing that CoT traces often diverge from actual visual evidence, instead amplifying internal biases or language priors, causing models to storytell rather than engage in grounded reasoning. To counteract this, we introduce Visual Evidence Reward (VER), a novel reinforcement learning framework that explicitly rewards the generation of reasoning traces that are verifiably grounded in visual evidence. Comprehensive evaluation across 10 diverse video understanding benchmarks demonstrates that our Video-VER consistently achieves top performance. Our work sheds light on the distinct challenges of video-centric reasoning and encourages the development of AI that robustly grounds its inferences in visual evidence - for large multimodal models that not only "think before answering", but also "see while thinking".

AI models are increasingly used for data analysis and visualization, yet benchmarks rarely address scatterplot-specific tasks, limiting insight into performance. To address this gap for one of the most common chart types, we introduce a synthetic, annotated dataset of over 18,000 scatterplots from six data generators and 17 chart designs, and a benchmark based on it. We evaluate proprietary models from OpenAI and Google using N-shot prompting on five distinct tasks derived from annotations of cluster bounding boxes, their center coordinates, and outlier coordinates. OpenAI models and Gemini 2.5 Flash, especially when prompted with examples, are viable options for counting clusters and, in Flash's case, outliers (90%+ Accuracy). However, the results for localization-related tasks are unsatisfactory: Precision and Recall are near or below 50%, except for Flash in outlier identification (65.01%). Furthermore, the impact of chart design on performance appears to be a secondary factor, but it is advisable to avoid scatterplots with wide aspect ratios (16:9 and 21:9) or those colored randomly. Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly multimodal models, are among today's key digital technologies.