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 Statistical Learning


Hierarchical clustering of complex energy systems using pretopology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article attempts answering the following problematic: How to model and classify energy consumption profiles over a large distributed territory to optimize the management of buildings' consumption? Doing case-by-case in depth auditing of thousands of buildings would require a massive amount of time and money as well as a significant number of qualified people. Thus, an automated method must be developed to establish a relevant and effective recommendations system. To answer this problematic, pretopology is used to model the sites' consumption profiles and a multi-criterion hierarchical classification algorithm, using the properties of pretopological space, has been developed in a Python library. To evaluate the results, three data sets are used: A generated set of dots of various sizes in a 2D space, a generated set of time series and a set of consumption time series of 400 real consumption sites from a French Energy company. On the point data set, the algorithm is able to identify the clusters of points using their position in space and their size as parameter. On the generated time series, the algorithm is able to identify the time series clusters using Pearson's correlation with an Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) of 1. Keywords: Artificial intelligence data analysis clustering algorithms pretopology


Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Steel Development: A Computational Framework and CCT Diagram Modelling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for accelerating the computational design and production of materials. In materials science, ML has primarily supported large-scale discovery of novel compounds using first-principles data and digital twin applications for optimizing manufacturing processes. However, applying general-purpose ML frameworks to complex industrial materials such as steel remains a challenge. A key obstacle is accurately capturing the intricate relationship between chemical composition, processing parameters, and the resulting microstructure and properties. To address this, we introduce a computational framework that combines physical insights with ML to develop a physics-informed continuous cooling transformation (CCT) model for steels. Our model, trained on a dataset of 4,100 diagrams, is validated against literature and experimental data. It demonstrates high computational efficiency, generating complete CCT diagrams with 100 cooling curves in under 5 seconds. It also shows strong generalizability across alloy steels, achieving phase classification F1 scores above 88% for all phases. For phase transition temperature regression, it attains mean absolute errors (MAE) below 20 ยฐC across all phases except bainite, which shows a slightly higher MAE of 27 ยฐC. This framework can be extended with additional generic and customized ML models to establish a universal digital twin platform for heat treatment. Integration with complementary simulation tools and targeted experiments will further support accelerated materials design workflows.


Adaptive Decentralized Federated Learning for Robust Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In decentralized federated learning (DFL), the presence of abnormal clients, often caused by noisy or poisoned data, can significantly disrupt the learning process and degrade the overall robustness of the model. Previous methods on this issue often require a sufficiently large number of normal neighboring clients or prior knowledge of reliable clients, which reduces the practical applicability of DFL. To address these limitations, we develop here a novel adaptive DFL (aDFL) approach for robust estimation. The key idea is to adaptively adjust the learning rates of clients. By assigning smaller rates to suspicious clients and larger rates to normal clients, aDFL mitigates the negative impact of abnormal clients on the global model in a fully adaptive way. Our theory does not put any stringent conditions on neighboring nodes and requires no prior knowledge. A rigorous convergence analysis is provided to guarantee the oracle property of aDFL. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the aDFL method.


Embedding networks with the random walk first return time distribution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose the first return time distribution (FRTD) of a random walk as an interpretable and mathematically grounded node embedding. The FRTD assigns a probability mass function to each node, allowing us to define a distance between any pair of nodes using standard metrics for discrete distributions. We present several arguments to motivate the FRTD embedding. First, we show that FRTDs are strictly more informative than eigenvalue spectra, yet insufficient for complete graph identification, thus placing FRTD equivalence between cospectrality and isomorphism. Second, we argue that FRTD equivalence between nodes captures structural similarity. Third, we empirically demonstrate that the FRTD embedding outperforms manually designed graph metrics in network alignment tasks. Finally, we show that random networks that approximately match the FRTD of a desired target also preserve other salient features. Together these results demonstrate the FRTD as a simple and mathematically principled embedding for complex networks.


Probabilistic Fusion and Calibration of Neural Speaker Diarization Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

End-to-End Neural Diarization (EEND) systems produce frame-level probabilistic speaker activity estimates, yet since evaluation focuses primarily on Diarization Error Rate (DER), the reliability and calibration of these confidence scores have been largely neglected. When fusing multiple diarization systems, DOVER-Lap remains the only established approach, operating at the segment level with hard decisions. We propose working with continuous probability outputs, which enables more sophisticated fusion and calibration techniques that can leverage model uncertainty and complementary strengths across different architectures. This paper presents the first comprehensive framework for calibrating and fusing EEND models at the probability level. We investigate two output formulations (multilabel and powerset representations) and their impact on calibration and fusion effectiveness. Through extensive experiments on the CallHome two-speaker benchmark, we demonstrate that proper calibration provides substantial improvements even for individual models (up to 19% relative DER reduction), in some cases mitigating the absence of domain adaptation. We reveal that joint calibration in powerset space consistently outperforms independent per-speaker calibration, that fusion substantially improves over individual models, and that the Fuse-then-Calibrate ordering generally outperforms both calibrating before fusion and uncalibrated fusion while requiring calibration of only a single combined model. Our best configuration outperforms DOVER-Lap in terms of DER while providing reliable confidence estimates essential for downstream applications. This work proposes best practices for probability-level fusion of EEND systems and demonstrates the advantages of leveraging soft outputs over hard decisions.


Foundations of Quantum Granular Computing with Effect-Based Granules, Algebraic Properties and Reference Architectures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper develops the foundations of Quantum Granular Computing (QGC), extending classical granular computing including fuzzy, rough, and shadowed granules to the quantum regime. Quantum granules are modeled as effects on a finite dimensional Hilbert space, so granular memberships are given by Born probabilities. This operator theoretic viewpoint provides a common language for sharp (projective) and soft (nonprojective) granules and embeds granulation directly into the standard formalism of quantum information theory. We establish foundational results for effect based quantum granules, including normalization and monotonicity properties, the emergence of Boolean islands from commuting families, granular refinement under Luders updates, and the evolution of granules under quantum channels via the adjoint channel in the Heisenberg picture. We connect QGC with quantum detection and estimation theory by interpreting the effect operators realizing Helstrom minimum error measurement for binary state discrimination as Helstrom type decision granules, i.e., soft quantum counterparts of Bayes optimal decision regions. Building on these results, we introduce Quantum Granular Decision Systems (QGDS) with three reference architectures that specify how quantum granules can be defined, learned, and integrated with classical components while remaining compatible with near term quantum hardware. Case studies on qubit granulation, two qubit parity effects, and Helstrom style soft decisions illustrate how QGC reproduces fuzzy like graded memberships and smooth decision boundaries while exploiting noncommutativity, contextuality, and entanglement. The framework thus provides a unified and mathematically grounded basis for operator valued granules in quantum information processing, granular reasoning, and intelligent systems.


Hi-OSCAR: Hierarchical Open-set Classifier for Human Activity Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Within Human Activity Recognition (HAR), there is an insurmountable gap between the range of activities performed in life and those that can be captured in an annotated sensor dataset used in training. Failure to properly handle unseen activities seriously undermines any HAR classifier's reliability. Additionally within HAR, not all classes are equally dissimilar, some significantly overlap or encompass other sub-activities. Based on these observations, we arrange activity classes into a structured hierarchy. From there, we propose Hi-OSCAR: a Hierarchical Open-set Classifier for Activity Recognition, that can identify known activities at state-of-the-art accuracy while simultaneously rejecting unknown activities. This not only enables open-set classification, but also allows for unknown classes to be localized to the nearest internal node, providing insight beyond a binary "known/unknown" classification. To facilitate this and future open-set HAR research, we collected a new dataset: NFI_FARED. NFI_FARED contains data from multiple subjects performing nineteen activities from a range of contexts, including daily living, commuting, and rapid movements, which is fully public and available for download.


Run-Time Monitoring of ERTMS/ETCS Control Flow by Process Mining

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring the resilience of computer-based railways is increasingly crucial to account for uncertainties and changes due to the growing complexity and criticality of these systems. Although their software relies on strict verification and validation processes following well-established best-practices and certification standards, anomalies can still occur at run-time due to residual faults, system and environmental modifications that were unknown at design-time, or other emergent cyber-threat scenarios. This paper explores run-time control-flow anomaly detection using process mining to enhance the resilience of ERTMS/ETCS L2 (European Rail Traffic Management System / European Train Control System Level 2). Process mining allows learning the actual control flow of the system from its execution traces, thus enabling run-time monitoring through online conformance checking. In addition, anomaly localization is performed through unsupervised machine learning to link relevant deviations to critical system components. We test our approach on a reference ERTMS/ETCS L2 scenario, namely the RBC/RBC Handover, to show its capability to detect and localize anomalies with high accuracy, efficiency, and explainability.


The Right to be Forgotten in Pruning: Unveil Machine Unlearning on Sparse Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine unlearning aims to efficiently eliminate the memory about deleted data from trained models and address the right to be forgotten. Despite the success of existing unlearning algorithms, unlearning in sparse models has not yet been well studied. In this paper, we empirically find that the deleted data has an impact on the pruned topology in a sparse model. Motivated by the observation and the right to be forgotten, we define a new terminology ``un-pruning" to eliminate the impact of deleted data on model pruning. Then we propose an un-pruning algorithm to approximate the pruned topology driven by retained data. We remark that any existing unlearning algorithm can be integrated with the proposed un-pruning workflow and the error of un-pruning is upper-bounded in theory. Also, our un-pruning algorithm can be applied to both structured sparse models and unstructured sparse models. In the experiment, we further find that Membership Inference Attack (MIA) accuracy is unreliable for assessing whether a model has forgotten deleted data, as a small change in the amount of deleted data can produce arbitrary MIA results. Accordingly, we devise new performance metrics for sparse models to evaluate the success of un-pruning. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to verify the efficacy of un-pruning with various pruning methods and unlearning algorithms. Our code is released at https://github.com/NKUShaw/SparseModels .


CoreSPECT: Enhancing Clustering Algorithms via an Interplay of Density and Geometry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we provide a novel perspective on the underlying structure of real-world data with ground-truth clusters via characterization of an abundantly observed yet often overlooked density-geometry correlation, that manifests itself as a multi-layered manifold structure. We leverage this correlation to design CoreSPECT (Core Space Projection based Enhancement of Clustering Techniques), a general framework that improves the performance of generic clustering algorithms. Our framework boosts the performance of clustering algorithms by applying them to strategically selected regions, then extending the partial partition to a complete partition for the dataset using a novel neighborhood graph based multi-layer propagation procedure. We provide initial theoretical support of the functionality of our framework under the assumption of our model, and then provide large-scale real-world experiments on 19 datasets that include standard image datasets as well as genomics datasets. We observe two notable improvements. First, CoreSPECT improves the NMI of K-Means by 20% on average, making it competitive to (and in some cases surpassing) the state-of-the-art manifold-based clustering algorithms, while being orders of magnitude faster. Secondly, our framework boosts the NMI of HDBSCAN by more than 100% on average, making it competitive to the state-of-the-art in several cases without requiring the true number of clusters and hyper-parameter tuning. The overall ARI improvements are higher.