Fuzzy simplicial sets have become an object of interest in dimensionality reduction and manifold learning, most prominently through their role in UMAP. However, their definition through tools from algebraic topology without a clear probabilistic interpretation detaches them from commonly used theoretical frameworks in those areas. In this work we introduce a framework that explains fuzzy simplicial sets as marginals of probability measures on simplicial sets. In particular, this perspective shows that the fuzzy weights of UMAP arise from a generative model that samples Vietoris-Rips filtrations at random scales, yielding cumulative distribution functions of pairwise distances. More generally, the framework connects fuzzy simplicial sets to probabilistic models on the face poset, clarifies the relation between Kullback-Leibler divergence and fuzzy cross-entropy in this setting, and recovers standard t-norms and t-conorms via Boolean operations on the underlying simplicial sets. We then show how new embedding methods may be derived from this framework and illustrate this on an example where we generalize UMAP using Čech filtrations with triplet sampling. In summary, this probabilistic viewpoint provides a unified probabilistic theoretical foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets, clarifies the role of UMAP within this framework, and enables the systematic derivation of new dimensionality reduction methods.

Recovering jointly sparse signals in the multiple measurement vectors (MMV) setting is a fundamental problem in machine learning, but traditional methods like multiple measurement vectors orthogonal matching pursuit (M-OMP) and multiple measurement vectors FOCal Underdetermined System Solver (M-FOCUSS) often require careful parameter tuning or prior knowledge of the sparsity of the signal and/or noise variance. We introduce a novel tuning-free framework that leverages Implicit Regularization (IR) from overparameterization to overcome this limitation. Our approach reparameterizes the estimation matrix into factors that decouple the shared row-support from individual vector entries. We show that the optimization dynamics inherently promote the desired row-sparse structure by applying gradient descent to a standard least-squares objective on these factors. We prove that with a sufficiently small and balanced initialization, the optimization dynamics exhibit a "momentum-like" effect, causing the norms of rows in the true support to grow significantly faster than others. This formally guarantees that the solution trajectory converges towards an idealized row-sparse solution. Additionally, empirical results demonstrate that our approach achieves performance comparable to established methods without requiring any prior information or tuning.

Online A/B testing, the gold standard for evaluating new advertising policies, consumes substantial engineering resources and risks significant revenue loss from deploying underperforming variations. This motivates the use of Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) for rapid, offline assessment. However, applying OPE to ad auctions is fundamentally more challenging than in domains like recommender systems, where stochastic policies are common. In online ad auctions, it is common for the highest-bidding ad to win the impression, resulting in a deterministic, winner-takes-all setting. This results in zero probability of exposure for non-winning ads, rendering standard OPE estimators inapplicable. We introduce the first principled framework for OPE in deterministic auctions by repurposing the bid landscape model to approximate the propensity score. This model allows us to derive robust approximate propensity scores, enabling the use of stable estimators like Self-Normalized Inverse Propensity Scoring (SNIPS) for counterfactual evaluation. We validate our approach on the AuctionNet simulation benchmark and against 2-weeks online A/B test from a large-scale industrial platform. Our method shows remarkable alignment with online results, achieving a 92\% Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA) in CTR prediction, significantly outperforming the parametric baseline. MDA is the most critical metric for guiding deployment decisions, as it reflects the ability to correctly predict whether a new model will improve or harm performance. This work contributes the first practical and validated framework for reliable OPE in deterministic auction environments, offering an efficient alternative to costly and risky online experiments.

Federated Learning (FL) is plagued by two key challenges: high communication overhead and performance collapse on heterogeneous (non-IID) data. Analytic FL (AFL) provides a single-round, data distribution invariant solution, but is limited to linear models. Subsequent non-linear approaches, like DeepAFL, regain accuracy but sacrifice the single-round benefit. In this work, we break this tradeoff. W e propose SAFLe, a framework that achieves scalable non-linear expressivity by introducing a structured head of bucketed features and sparse, grouped embeddings. W e prove this non-linear architecture is mathematically equivalent to a high-dimensional linear regression. This key equivalence allows SAFLe to be solved with AFL's single-shot, invariant aggregation law. Empirically, SAFLe establishes a new state-of-the-art for analytic FL, significantly outperforming both linear AFL and multi-round DeepAFL in accuracy across all benchmarks, demonstrating a highly efficient and scalable solution for federated vision.

A major effort in modern high-dimensional statistics has been devoted to the analysis of linear predictors trained on nonlinear feature embeddings via empirical risk minimization (ERM). Gaussian equivalence theory (GET) has emerged as a powerful universality principle in this context: it states that the behavior of high-dimensional, complex features can be captured by Gaussian surrogates, which are more amenable to analysis. Despite its remarkable successes, numerical experiments show that this equivalence can fail even for simple embeddings -- such as polynomial maps -- under general scaling regimes. We investigate this breakdown in the setting of random feature (RF) models in the quadratic scaling regime, where both the number of features and the sample size grow quadratically with the data dimension. We show that when the target function depends on a low-dimensional projection of the data, such as generalized linear models, GET yields incorrect predictions. To capture the correct asymptotics, we introduce a Conditional Gaussian Equivalent (CGE) model, which can be viewed as appending a low-dimensional non-Gaussian component to an otherwise high-dimensional Gaussian model. This hybrid model retains the tractability of the Gaussian framework and accurately describes RF models in the quadratic scaling regime. We derive sharp asymptotics for the training and test errors in this setting, which continue to agree with numerical simulations even when GET fails. Our analysis combines general results on CLT for Wiener chaos expansions and a careful two-phase Lindeberg swapping argument. Beyond RF models and quadratic scaling, our work hints at a rich landscape of universality phenomena in high-dimensional ERM.

High quality data is needed to unlock the full potential of AI for end users. However finding new sources of such data is getting harder: most publicly-available human generated data will soon have been used. Additionally, publicly available data often is not representative of users of a particular system -- for example, a research speech dataset of contractors interacting with an AI assistant will likely be more homogeneous, well articulated and self-censored than real world commands that end users will issue. Therefore unlocking high-quality data grounded in real user interactions is of vital interest. However, the direct use of user data comes with significant privacy risks. Differential Privacy (DP) is a well established framework for reasoning about and limiting information leakage, and is a gold standard for protecting user privacy. The focus of this work, \emph{Differentially Private Synthetic data}, refers to synthetic data that preserves the overall trends of source data,, while providing strong privacy guarantees to individuals that contributed to the source dataset. DP synthetic data can unlock the value of datasets that have previously been inaccessible due to privacy concerns and can replace the use of sensitive datasets that previously have only had rudimentary protections like ad-hoc rule-based anonymization. In this paper we explore the full suite of techniques surrounding DP synthetic data, the types of privacy protections they offer and the state-of-the-art for various modalities (image, tabular, text and decentralized). We outline all the components needed in a system that generates DP synthetic data, from sensitive data handling and preparation, to tracking the use and empirical privacy testing. We hope that work will result in increased adoption of DP synthetic data, spur additional research and increase trust in DP synthetic data approaches.

We investigate the convergence properties of a class of iterative algorithms designed to minimize a potentially non-smooth and noisy objective function, which may be algebraically intractable and whose values may be obtained as the output of a black box. The algorithms considered can be cast under the umbrella of a generalised gradient descent recursion, where the gradient is that of a smooth approximation of the objective function. The framework we develop includes as special cases model-based and mollification methods, two classical approaches to zero-th order optimisation. The convergence results are obtained under very weak assumptions on the regularity of the objective function and involve a trade-off between the degree of smoothing and size of the steps taken in the parameter updates. As expected, additional assumptions are required in the stochastic case. We illustrate the relevance of these algorithms and our convergence results through a challenging classification example from machine learning.

Shapley values, a gold standard for feature attribution in Explainable AI, face two primary challenges. First, the canonical Shapley framework assumes that the worth function is additive, yet real-world payoff constructions--driven by non-Gaussian distributions, heavy tails, feature dependence, or domain-specific loss scales--often violate this assumption, leading to distorted attributions. Secondly, achieving sparse explanations in high dimensions by computing dense Shapley values and then applying ad hoc thresholding is prohibitively costly and risks inconsistency. We introduce Sparse Isotonic Shapley Regression (SISR), a unified nonlinear explanation framework. SISR simultaneously learns a monotonic transformation to restore additivity--obviating the need for a closed-form specification--and enforces an L0 sparsity constraint on the Shapley vector, enhancing computational efficiency in large feature spaces. Its optimization algorithm leverages Pool-Adjacent-Violators for efficient isotonic regression and normalized hard-thresholding for support selection, yielding implementation ease and global convergence guarantees. Analysis shows that SISR recovers the true transformation in a wide range of scenarios and achieves strong support recovery even in high noise. Moreover, we are the first to demonstrate that irrelevant features and inter-feature dependencies can induce a true payoff transformation that deviates substantially from linearity. Experiments in regression, logistic regression, and tree ensembles demonstrate that SISR stabilizes attributions across payoff schemes, correctly filters irrelevant features while standard Shapley values suffer severe rank and sign distortions. By unifying nonlinear transformation estimation with sparsity pursuit, SISR advances the frontier of nonlinear explainability, providing a theoretically grounded and practical attribution framework.

Large language models (LLMs) produce fluent but unsupported answers - hallucinations - limiting safe deployment in high-stakes domains. We propose ECLIPSE, a framework that treats hallucination as a mismatch between a model's semantic entropy and the capacity of available evidence. We combine entropy estimation via multi-sample clustering with a novel perplexity decomposition that measures how models use retrieved evidence. We prove that under mild conditions, the resulting entropy-capacity objective is strictly convex with a unique stable optimum. We evaluate on a controlled financial question answering dataset with GPT-3.5-turbo (n=200 balanced samples with synthetic hallucinations), where ECLIPSE achieves ROC AUC of 0.89 and average precision of 0.90, substantially outperforming a semantic entropy-only baseline (AUC 0.50). A controlled ablation with Claude-3-Haiku, which lacks token-level log probabilities, shows AUC dropping to 0.59 with coefficient magnitudes decreasing by 95% - demonstrating that ECLIPSE is a logprob-native mechanism whose effectiveness depends on calibrated token-level uncertainties. The perplexity decomposition features exhibit the largest learned coefficients, confirming that evidence utilization is central to hallucination detection. We position this work as a controlled mechanism study; broader validation across domains and naturally occurring hallucinations remains future work.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in data-driven learning and in sampling from complex, unnormalized target distributions. Building on this progress, we reinterpret Maximum Entropy Reinforcement Learning (MaxEntRL) as a diffusion model-based sampling problem. We tackle this problem by minimizing the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the diffusion policy and the optimal policy distribution using a tractable upper bound. By applying the policy gradient theorem to this objective, we derive a modified surrogate objective for MaxEntRL that incorporates diffusion dynamics in a principled way. This leads to simple diffusion-based variants of Soft Actor-Critic (SAC), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Wasserstein Policy Optimization (WPO), termed DiffSAC, DiffPPO and DiffWPO. All of these methods require only minor implementation changes to their base algorithm. We find that on standard continuous control benchmarks, DiffSAC, DiffPPO and DiffWPO achieve better returns and higher sample efficiency than SAC and PPO.