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 Statistical Learning


ENMA: Tokenwise Autoregression for Generative Neural PDE Operators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solving time-dependent parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) remains a fundamental challenge for neural solvers, particularly when generalizing across a wide range of physical parameters and dynamics. When data is uncertain or incomplete-as is often the case-a natural approach is to turn to generative models. We introduce ENMA, a generative neural operator designed to model spatio-temporal dynamics arising from physical phenomena. ENMA predicts future dynamics in a compressed latent space using a generative masked autoregressive transformer trained with flow matching loss, enabling tokenwise generation. Irregularly sampled spatial observations are encoded into uniform latent representations via attention mechanisms and further compressed through a spatio-temporal convolutional encoder. This allows ENMA to perform in-context learning at inference time by conditioning on either past states of the target trajectory or auxiliary context trajectories with similar dynamics. The result is a robust and adaptable framework that generalizes to new PDE regimes and supports one-shot surrogate modeling of time-dependent parametric PDEs.


Balanced Online Class-Incremental Learning via Dual Classifiers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online class-incremental learning (OCIL) focuses on gradually learning new classes (called plasticity) from a stream of data in a single-pass, while concurrently preserving knowledge of previously learned classes (called stability). The primary challenge in OCIL lies in maintaining a good balance between the knowledge of old and new classes within the continually updated model. Most existing methods rely on explicit knowledge interaction through experience replay, and often employ exclusive training separation to address bias problems. Nevertheless, it still remains a big challenge to achieve a well-balanced learner, as these methods often exhibit either reduced plasticity or limited stability due to difficulties in continually integrating knowledge in the OCIL setting. In this paper, we propose a novel replay-based method, called Balanced Inclusive Separation for Online iNcremental learning (BISON), which can achieve both high plasticity and stability, thus ensuring more balanced performance in OCIL. Our BISON method proposes an inclusive training separation strategy using dual classifiers so that knowledge from both old and new classes can effectively be integrated into the model, while introducing implicit approaches for transferring knowledge across the two classifiers. Extensive experimental evaluations over three widely-used OCIL benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of BISON, showing more balanced yet better performance compared to state-of-the-art replay-based OCIL methods.


Rethinking Causal Discovery Through the Lens of Exchangeability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal discovery methods have traditionally been developed under two distinct regimes: independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and timeseries data, each governed by separate modelling assumptions. In this paper, we argue that the i.i.d. setting can and should be reframed in terms of exchangeability, a strictly more general symmetry principle. We present the implications of this reframing, alongside two core arguments: (1) a conceptual argument, based on extending the dependency of experimental causal inference on exchangeability to causal discovery; and (2) an empirical argument, showing that many existing i.i.d. causal-discovery methods are predicated on exchangeability assumptions, and that the sole extensive widely-used real-world "i.i.d." benchmark (the Tübingen dataset) consists mainly of exchangeable (and not i.i.d.) examples. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel synthetic dataset that enforces only the exchangeability assumption, without imposing the stronger i.i.d. assumption. We show that our exchangeable synthetic dataset mirrors the statistical structure of the real-world "i.i.d." dataset more closely than all other i.i.d. synthetic datasets. Furthermore, we demonstrate the predictive capability of this dataset by proposing a neural-network-based causal-discovery algorithm trained exclusively on our synthetic dataset, and which performs similarly to other state-of-the-art i.i.d. methods on the real-world benchmark.


Murmur2Vec: A Hashing Based Solution For Embedding Generation Of COVID-19 Spike Sequences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Early detection and characterization of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, remain critical for effective clinical response and public-health planning. The global availability of large-scale viral sequence data presents significant opportunities for computational analysis; however, existing approaches face notable limitations. Phylogenetic tree-based methods are computationally intensive and do not scale efficiently to today's multi-million-sequence datasets. Similarly, current embedding-based techniques often rely on aligned sequences or exhibit suboptimal predictive performance and high runtime costs, creating barriers to practical large-scale analysis. In this study, we focus on the most prevalent SARS-CoV-2 lineages associated with the spike protein region and introduce a scalable embedding method that leverages hashing to generate compact, low-dimensional representations of spike sequences. These embeddings are subsequently used to train a variety of machine learning models for supervised lineage classification. We conduct an extensive evaluation comparing our approach with multiple baseline and state-of-the-art biological sequence embedding methods across diverse metrics. Our results demonstrate that the proposed embeddings offer substantial improvements in efficiency, achieving up to 86.4\% classification accuracy while reducing embedding generation time by as much as 99.81\%. This highlights the method's potential as a fast, effective, and scalable solution for large-scale viral sequence analysis.


Mitigating Exposure Bias in Risk-Aware Time Series Forecasting with Soft Tokens

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autoregressive forecasting is central to predictive control in diabetes and hemodynamic management, where different operating zones carry different clinical risks. Standard models trained with teacher forcing suffer from exposure bias, yielding unstable multi-step forecasts for closed-loop use. We introduce Soft-Token Trajectory Forecasting (SoTra), which propagates continuous probability distributions (``soft tokens'') to mitigate exposure bias and learn calibrated, uncertainty-aware trajectories. A risk-aware decoding module then minimizes expected clinical harm. In glucose forecasting, SoTra reduces average zone-based risk by 18\%; in blood-pressure forecasting, it lowers effective clinical risk by approximately 15\%. These improvements support its use in safety-critical predictive control.


SEMDICE: Off-policy State Entropy Maximization via Stationary Distribution Correction Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the unsupervised pre-training for reinforcement learning, the agent aims to learn a prior policy for downstream tasks without relying on task-specific reward functions. We focus on state entropy maximization (SEM), where the goal is to learn a policy that maximizes the entropy of the state stationary distribution. In this paper, we introduce SEMDICE, a principled off-policy algorithm that computes an SEM policy from an arbitrary off-policy dataset, which optimizes the policy directly within the space of stationary distributions. SEMDICE computes a single, stationary Markov state-entropy-maximizing policy from an arbitrary off-policy dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that SEMDICE outperforms baseline algorithms in maximizing state entropy while achieving the best adaptation efficiency for downstream tasks among SEM-based unsupervised RL pre-training methods.


Robust Gradient Descent via Heavy-Ball Momentum with Predictive Extrapolation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accelerated gradient methods like Nesterov's Accelerated Gradient (NAG) achieve faster convergence on well-conditioned problems but often diverge on ill-conditioned or non-convex landscapes due to aggressive momentum accumulation. We propose Heavy-Ball Synthetic Gradient Extrapolation (HB-SGE), a robust first-order method that combines heavy-ball momentum with predictive gradient extrapolation. Unlike classical momentum methods that accumulate historical gradients, HB-SGE estimates future gradient directions using local Taylor approximations, providing adaptive acceleration while maintaining stability. We prove convergence guarantees for strongly convex functions and demonstrate empirically that HB-SGE prevents divergence on problems where NAG and standard momentum fail. On ill-conditioned quadratics (condition number κ = 50), HB-SGE converges in 119 iterations while both SGD and NAG diverge. On the non-convex Rosen-brock function, HB-SGE achieves convergence in 2,718 iterations where classical momentum methods diverge within 10 steps. While NAG remains faster on well-conditioned problems, HB-SGE provides a robust alternative with speedup over SGD across diverse landscapes, requiring only O(d) memory overhead and the same hy-perparameters as standard momentum.


HGC-Herd: Efficient Heterogeneous Graph Condensation via Representative Node Herding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNNs) have demonstrated strong capability in modeling complex semantics across multi-type nodes and relations. However, their scalability to large-scale graphs remains challenging due to structural redundancy and high-dimensional node features. Existing graph condensation approaches, such as GCond, are primarily developed for homogeneous graphs and rely on gradient matching, resulting in considerable computational, memory, and optimization overhead. We propose HGC-Herd, a training-free condensation framework that generates compact yet informative heterogeneous graphs while maintaining both semantic and structural fidelity. HGC-Herd integrates lightweight feature propagation to encode multi-hop relational context and employs a class-wise herding mechanism to identify representative nodes per class, producing balanced and discriminative subsets for downstream learning tasks. Extensive experiments on ACM, DBLP, and Freebase validate that HGC-Herd attains comparable or superior accuracy to full-graph training while markedly reducing both runtime and memory consumption. These results underscore its practical value for efficient and scalable heterogeneous graph representation learning.


QSTAformer: A Quantum-Enhanced Transformer for Robust Short-Term Voltage Stability Assessment against Adversarial Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Short-term voltage stability assessment (STVSA) is critical for secure power system operation. While classical machine learning-based methods have demonstrated strong performance, they still face challenges in robustness under adversarial conditions. This paper proposes QST Aformer--a tailored quantum-enhanced Transformer architecture that embeds parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) into attention mechanisms--for robust and efficient STVSA. A dedicated adversarial training strategy is developed to defend against both white-box and gray-box attacks. Furthermore, diverse PQC architectures are benchmarked to explore trade-offs between expressiveness, convergence, and efficiency. T o the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to systematically investigate the adversarial vulnerability of quantum machine learning-based STVSA. Case studies on the IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate that QST Aformer achieves competitive accuracy, reduced complexity, and stronger robustness, underscoring its potential for secure and scalable STVSA under adversarial conditions. ITH the high penetration of converter-interfaced renewable energy sources and the growing deployment of fast-acting power electronic devices, maintaining short-term voltage stability (STVS) in modern power systems has become a pressing challenge [1]. STVS characterizes a power system's ability to preserve acceptable voltage profiles during the initial seconds following a disturbance [2], and this stability is primarily influenced by the dynamic behavior of fast acting loads, Li is with the School of Electrical Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin 132012, China (e-mail: liyang@neepu.edu.cn). C. Ma is with State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company Jiaozhou Power Supply Company, Jiaozhou 266300, China (email:machong58112233@163.com). Z. Li is with the School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China (email: Y uanzheng Li@hust.edu.cn). Sen Li is with the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong.


Specialization after Generalization: Towards Understanding Test-Time Training in Foundation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many standard TTT methods train on carefully selected data from the pre-training dataset (i.e., do not add any new privileged information; Hardt & Sun, 2024; Hübotter et al., 2025), and several works studied how to optimally select data for imitation, e.g., the early seminal work of MacKay (1992) and recent extensions (Hübotter et al., 2024; Bagatella et al., 2025b). TTT has also been extended from supervised learning to reinforcement learning (Zuo et al., 2025; Bagatella et al., 2025a; Diaz-Bone et al., 2025). So far it has not been well understood why and when TTT is effective. While many different methods have been proposed for TTT, we focus here on analyzing "semi-parametric" TTT (e.g., Hardt & Sun, 2024; Hübotter et al., 2025), where a pre-trained model is fine-tuned with a supervised loss on a small neighborhood of the test point in the training data. This is different from some other methods for test-time "adaptation", which are commonly applied with distribution shifts (e.g., Wang et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2022; Durasov et al., 2025). Basu et al. (2023) consider a similar setting to ours, but analyze it through the lens of non-parametric estimation, relying on the smoothness of the target function in the feature space Ψ.