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 Statistical Learning


Quantitative Propagation of Chaos for SGD in Wide Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we investigate the limiting behavior of a continuous-time counterpart of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm applied to two-layer overparameterized neural networks, as the number or neurons (i.e., the size of the hidden layer) $N \to \plusinfty$. Following a probabilistic approach, we show `propagation of chaos' for the particle system defined by this continuous-time dynamics under different scenarios, indicating that the statistical interaction between the particles asymptotically vanishes. In particular, we establish quantitative convergence with respect to $N$ of any particle to a solution of a mean-field McKean-Vlasov equation in the metric space endowed with the Wasserstein distance. In comparison to previous works on the subject, we consider settings in which the sequence of stepsizes in SGD can potentially depend on the number of neurons and the iterations. We then identify two regimes under which different mean-field limits are obtained, one of them corresponding to an implicitly regularized version of the minimization problem at hand. We perform various experiments on real datasets to validate our theoretical results, assessing the existence of these two regimes on classification problems and illustrating our convergence results.


Asynchronous SGD Beats Minibatch SGD Under Arbitrary Delays

Neural Information Processing Systems

The existing analysis of asynchronous stochastic gradient descent (SGD) degrades dramatically when any delay is large, giving the impression that performance depends primarily on the delay. On the contrary, we prove much better guarantees for the same asynchronous SGD algorithm regardless of the delays in the gradients, depending instead just on the number of parallel devices used to implement the algorithm. Our guarantees are strictly better than the existing analyses, and we also argue that asynchronous SGD outperforms synchronous minibatch SGD in the settings we consider. For our analysis, we introduce a novel recursion based on ``virtual iterates'' and delay-adaptive stepsizes, which allow us to derive state-of-the-art guarantees for both convex and non-convex objectives.


A Consolidated Cross-Validation Algorithm for Support Vector Machines via Data Reduction

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a consolidated cross-validation (CV) algorithm for training and tuning the support vector machines (SVM) on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Our consolidated CV algorithm utilizes a recently proposed exact leave-one-out formula for the SVM and accelerates the SVM computation via a data reduction strategy. In addition, to compute the SVM with the bias term (intercept), which is not handled by the existing data reduction methods, we propose a novel two-stage consolidated CV algorithm. With numerical studies, we demonstrate that our algorithm is about an order of magnitude faster than the two mainstream SVM solvers, kernlab and LIBSVM, with almost the same accuracy.


Toward Scalable and Valid Conditional Independence Testing with Spectral Representations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conditional independence (CI) is central to causal inference, feature selection, and graphical modeling, yet it is untestable in many settings without additional assumptions. Existing CI tests often rely on restrictive structural conditions, limiting their validity on real-world data. Kernel methods using the partial covariance operator offer a more principled approach but suffer from limited adaptivity, slow convergence, and poor scalability. In this work, we explore whether representation learning can help address these limitations. Specifically, we focus on representations derived from the singular value decomposition of the partial covariance operator and use them to construct a simple test statistic, reminiscent of the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). We also introduce a practical bi-level contrastive algorithm to learn these representations. Our theory links representation learning error to test performance and establishes asymptotic validity and power guarantees. Preliminary experiments suggest that this approach offers a practical and statistically grounded path toward scalable CI testing, bridging kernel-based theory with modern representation learning.


Cluster-Based Generalized Additive Models Informed by Random Fourier Features

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Explainable machine learning aims to strike a balance between prediction accuracy and model transparency, particularly in settings where black-box predictive models, such as deep neural networks or kernel-based methods, achieve strong empirical performance but remain difficult to interpret. This work introduces a mixture of generalized additive models (GAMs) in which random Fourier feature (RFF) representations are leveraged to uncover locally adaptive structure in the data. In the proposed method, an RFF-based embedding is first learned and then compressed via principal component analysis. The resulting low-dimensional representations are used to perform soft clustering of the data through a Gaussian mixture model. These cluster assignments are then applied to construct a mixture-of-GAMs framework, where each local GAM captures nonlinear effects through interpretable univariate smooth functions. Numerical experiments on real-world regression benchmarks, including the California Housing, NASA Airfoil Self-Noise, and Bike Sharing datasets, demonstrate improved predictive performance relative to classical interpretable models. Overall, this construction provides a principled approach for integrating representation learning with transparent statistical modeling.


A Convex Loss Function for Set Prediction with Optimal Trade-offs Between Size and Conditional Coverage

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider supervised learning problems in which set predictions provide explicit uncertainty estimates. Using Choquet integrals (a.k.a. Lov{á}sz extensions), we propose a convex loss function for nondecreasing subset-valued functions obtained as level sets of a real-valued function. This loss function allows optimal trade-offs between conditional probabilistic coverage and the ''size'' of the set, measured by a non-decreasing submodular function. We also propose several extensions that mimic loss functions and criteria for binary classification with asymmetric losses, and show how to naturally obtain sets with optimized conditional coverage. We derive efficient optimization algorithms, either based on stochastic gradient descent or reweighted least-squares formulations, and illustrate our findings with a series of experiments on synthetic datasets for classification and regression tasks, showing improvements over approaches that aim for marginal coverage.


On Conditional Stochastic Interpolation for Generative Nonlinear Sufficient Dimension Reduction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identifying low-dimensional sufficient structures in nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) has long been a fundamental yet challenging problem. Most existing methods lack theoretical guarantees of exhaustiveness in identifying lower dimensional structures, either at the population level or at the sample level. We tackle this issue by proposing a new method, generative sufficient dimension reduction (GenSDR), which leverages modern generative models. We show that GenSDR is able to fully recover the information contained in the central $σ$-field at both the population and sample levels. In particular, at the sample level, we establish a consistency property for the GenSDR estimator from the perspective of conditional distributions, capitalizing on the distributional learning capabilities of deep generative models. Moreover, by incorporating an ensemble technique, we extend GenSDR to accommodate scenarios with non-Euclidean responses, thereby substantially broadening its applicability. Extensive numerical results demonstrate the outstanding empirical performance of GenSDR and highlight its strong potential for addressing a wide range of complex, real-world tasks.


Testing for latent structure via the Wilcoxon--Wigner random matrix of normalized rank statistics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper considers the problem of testing for latent structure in large symmetric data matrices. The goal here is to develop statistically principled methodology that is flexible in its applicability, computationally efficient, and insensitive to extreme data variation, thereby overcoming limitations facing existing approaches. To do so, we introduce and systematically study certain symmetric matrices, called Wilcoxon--Wigner random matrices, whose entries are normalized rank statistics derived from an underlying independent and identically distributed sample of absolutely continuous random variables. These matrices naturally arise as the matricization of one-sample problems in statistics and conceptually lie at the interface of nonparametrics, multivariate analysis, and data reduction. Among our results, we establish that the leading eigenvalue and corresponding eigenvector of Wilcoxon--Wigner random matrices admit asymptotically Gaussian fluctuations with explicit centering and scaling terms. These asymptotic results enable rigorous parameter-free and distribution-free spectral methodology for addressing two hypothesis testing problems, namely community detection and principal submatrix detection. Numerical examples illustrate the performance of the proposed approach. Throughout, our findings are juxtaposed with existing results based on the spectral properties of independent entry symmetric random matrices in signal-plus-noise data settings.


Unsupervised Feature Selection via Robust Autoencoder and Adaptive Graph Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Effective feature selection is essential for high-dimensional data analysis and machine learning. Unsupervised feature selection (UFS) aims to simultaneously cluster data and identify the most discriminative features. Most existing UFS methods linearly project features into a pseudo-label space for clustering, but they suffer from two critical limitations: (1) an oversimplified linear mapping that fails to capture complex feature relationships, and (2) an assumption of uniform cluster distributions, ignoring outliers prevalent in real-world data. To address these issues, we propose the Robust Autoencoder-based Unsupervised Feature Selection (RAEUFS) model, which leverages a deep autoencoder to learn nonlinear feature representations while inherently improving robustness to outliers. We further develop an efficient optimization algorithm for RAEUFS. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art UFS approaches in both clean and outlier-contaminated data settings.


The Challenger: When Do New Data Sources Justify Switching Machine Learning Models?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of deciding whether, and when an organization should replace a trained incumbent model with a challenger relying on newly available features. We develop a unified economic and statistical framework that links learning-curve dynamics, data-acquisition and retraining costs, and discounting of future gains. First, we characterize the optimal switching time in stylized settings and derive closed-form expressions that quantify how horizon length, learning-curve curvature, and cost differentials shape the optimal decision. Second, we propose three practical algorithms--a one-shot baseline, a greedy sequential method, and a look-ahead sequential method. Using a real-world credit-scoring dataset with gradually arriving alternative data, we show that (i) optimal switching times vary systematically with cost parameters and learning-curve behavior, and (ii) the look-ahead sequential method outperforms other methods and is able to approach in value an oracle with full foresight. Finally, we establish finite-sample guarantees, including conditions under which the sequential look-ahead method achieve sublinear regret relative to that oracle. Our results provide an operational blueprint for economically sound model transitions as new data sources become available.