Several recent works have shown that state-of-the-art classifiers are vulnerable to worst-case (i.e., adversarial) perturbations of the datapoints. On the other hand, it has been empirically observed that these same classifiers are relatively robust to random noise. In this paper, we propose to study a semi-random noise regime that generalizes both the random and worst-case noise regimes. We propose the first quantitative analysis of the robustness of nonlinear classifiers in this general noise regime. We establish precise theoretical bounds on the robustness of classifiers in this general regime, which depend on the curvature of the classifier's decision boundary. Our bounds confirm and quantify the empirical observations that classifiers satisfying curvature constraints are robust to random noise. Moreover, we quantify the robustness of classifiers in terms of the subspace dimension in the semi-random noise regime, and show that our bounds remarkably interpolate between the worst-case and random noise regimes. We perform experiments and show that the derived bounds provide very accurate estimates when applied to various state-of-the-art deep neural networks and datasets. This result suggests bounds on the curvature of the classifiers' decision boundaries that we support experimentally, and more generally offers important insights onto the geometry of high dimensional classification problems.

Given $iid$ observations from an unknown continuous distribution defined on some domain $\Omega$, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function. Our density estimate is a piecewise constant function defined on a binary partition of $\Omega$. The key ingredient of the algorithm is to use discrepancy, a concept originates from Quasi Monte Carlo analysis, to control the partition process. The resulting algorithm is simple, efficient, and has provable convergence rate. We demonstrate empirically its efficiency as a density estimation method. We also show how it can be utilized to find good initializations for k-means.

We consider online learning algorithms that guarantee worst-case regret rates in adversarial environments (so they can be deployed safely and will perform robustly), yet adapt optimally to favorable stochastic environments (so they will perform well in a variety of settings of practical importance). We quantify the friendliness of stochastic environments by means of the well-known Bernstein (a.k.a. generalized Tsybakov margin) condition. For two recent algorithms (Squint for the Hedge setting and MetaGrad for online convex optimization) we show that the particular form of their data-dependent individual-sequence regret guarantees implies that they adapt automatically to the Bernstein parameters of the stochastic environment. We prove that these algorithms attain fast rates in their respective settings both in expectation and with high probability.

Exemplar learning is a powerful paradigm for discovering visual similarities in an unsupervised manner. In this context, however, the recent breakthrough in deep learning could not yet unfold its full potential. With only a single positive sample, a great imbalance between one positive and many negatives, and unreliable relationships between most samples, training of convolutional neural networks is impaired. Given weak estimates of local distance we propose a single optimization problem to extract batches of samples with mutually consistent relations. Conflicting relations are distributed over different batches and similar samples are grouped into compact cliques. Learning exemplar similarities is framed as a sequence of clique categorization tasks. The CNN then consolidates transitivity relations within and between cliques and learns a single representation for all samples without the need for labels. The proposed unsupervised approach has shown competitive performance on detailed posture analysis and object classification.

Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox provides functions and apps to describe, analyze, and model data. You can use descriptive statistics and plots for exploratory data analysis, fit probability distributions to data, generate random numbers for Monte Carlo simulations, and perform hypothesis tests. Regression and classification algorithms let you draw inferences from data and build predictive models. For multidimensional data analysis, Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox provides feature selection, stepwise regression, principal component analysis (PCA), regularization, and other dimensionality reduction methods that let you identify variables or features that impact your model. The toolbox provides supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms, including support vector machines (SVMs), boosted and bagged decision trees, k-nearest neighbor, k-means, k-medoids, hierarchical clustering, Gaussian mixture models, and hidden Markov models.

Clustering is a widely used unsupervised learning method for finding structure in the data. However, the resulting clusters are typically presented without any guarantees on their robustness; slightly changing the used data sample or re-running a clustering algorithm involving some stochastic component may lead to completely different clusters. There is, hence, a need for techniques that can quantify the instability of the generated clusters. In this study, we propose a technique for quantifying the instability of a clustering solution and for finding robust clusters, termed core clusters, which correspond to clusters where the co-occurrence probability of each data item within a cluster is at least $1 - \alpha$. We demonstrate how solving the core clustering problem is linked to finding the largest maximal cliques in a graph. We show that the method can be used with both clustering and classification algorithms. The proposed method is tested on both simulated and real datasets. The results show that the obtained clusters indeed meet the guarantees on robustness.

A plethora of networks is being collected in a growing number of fields, including disease transmission, international relations, social interactions, and others. As data streams continue to grow, the complexity associated with these highly multidimensional connectivity data presents novel challenges. In this paper, we focus on the time-varying interconnections among a set of actors in multiple contexts, called layers. Current literature lacks flexible statistical models for dynamic multilayer networks, which can enhance quality in inference and prediction by efficiently borrowing information within each network, across time, and between layers. Motivated by this gap, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric model leveraging latent space representations. Our formulation characterizes the edge probabilities as a function of shared and layer-specific actors positions in a latent space, with these positions changing in time via Gaussian processes. This representation facilitates dimensionality reduction and incorporates different sources of information in the observed data. In addition, we obtain tractable procedures for posterior computation, inference, and prediction. We provide theoretical results on the flexibility of our model. Our methods are tested on simulations and infection studies monitoring dynamic face-to-face contacts among individuals in multiple days, where we perform better than current methods in inference and prediction.

We are in the middle of a remarkable rise in the use and capability of artificial intelligence. Much of this growth has been fueled by the success of deep learning architectures: models that map from observables to outputs via multiple layers of latent representations. These deep learning algorithms are effective tools for unstructured prediction, and they can be combined in AI systems to solve complex automated reasoning problems. This paper provides a recipe for combining ML algorithms to solve for causal effects in the presence of instrumental variables -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent from the response. We show that a flexible IV specification resolves into two prediction tasks that can be solved with deep neural nets: a first-stage network for treatment prediction and a second-stage network whose loss function involves integration over the conditional treatment distribution. This Deep IV framework imposes some specific structure on the stochastic gradient descent routine used for training, but it is general enough that we can take advantage of off-the-shelf ML capabilities and avoid extensive algorithm customization. We outline how to obtain out-of-sample causal validation in order to avoid over-fit. We also introduce schemes for both Bayesian and frequentist inference: the former via a novel adaptation of dropout training, and the latter via a data splitting routine.

Prerequisites: Working knowledge of Python is necessary if you want to run the source code that is provided. Basic knowledge of machine learning, especially ML classification techniques, would be helpful but it's not mandatory. Taught by a Stanford-educated, ex-Googler and an IIT, IIM - educated ex-Flipkart lead analyst. This team has decades of practical experience in quant trading, analytics and e-commerce. Completely Practical: This course has just enough theory to get you started with both Quant Trading and Machine Learning.

Regressions are widely used to estimate relations between variables or predict future values for a certain dataset. If you want to know how much of variable "x" interferes with variable "y" you might want to do a regression in your data. If you have a bunch of data points in time, and you want to know what is your data going to look like in the future, you also might want to do regression. I will try to describe the steps that helped me successfully build linear and non-linear regression in R, using polynomials and splines. I am not going to go on too much details on each method.