Forecasting stream water temperature using regression analysis, artificial neural network, and chaotic non-linear dynamic models

Stream water temperature is considered both a dominant factor in determining the longitudinal distribution pattern of aquatic biota and as a general metabolic indicator for the water body, since so many biological processes are temperature dependent. Moreover, the plunging depth of stream water, its associated pollutant load, and its potential impact on lake/reservoir ecology is dependent on water temperature. Lack of detailed datasets and knowledge on physical processes of the stream system limits the use of a phenomenological model to estimate stream temperature. Rather, empirical models have been used as viable alternatives. In this study, an empirical model (artificial neural networks (ANN)), a statistical model (multiple regression analysis (MRA)), and the chaotic non-linear dynamic algorithms (CNDA) were examined to predict the stream water temperature from the available solar radiation and air temperature.