Bayesian model selection commonly relies on Laplace approximation or the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which assume that the effective model dimension equals the number of parameters. Singular learning theory replaces this assumption with the real log canonical threshold (RLCT), an effective dimension that can be strictly smaller in overparameterized or rank-deficient models. We study linear-Gaussian rank models and linear subspace (dictionary) models in which the exact marginal likelihood is available in closed form and the RLCT is analytically tractable. In this setting, we show theoretically and empirically that the error of Laplace/BIC grows linearly with (d/2 minus lambda) times log n, where d is the ambient parameter dimension and lambda is the RLCT. An RLCT-aware correction recovers the correct evidence slope and is invariant to overcomplete reparameterizations that represent the same data subspace. Our results provide a concrete finite-sample characterization of Laplace failure in singular models and demonstrate that evidence slopes can be used as a practical estimator of effective dimension in simple linear settings.

Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework that addresses this fundamental limitation in healthcare predictions. Our approach integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware con-formal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores while maintaining rigorous coverage validity. Evaluated on 61,538 admissions across 3,793 U.S. hospitals and 4 regions, our method achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision: 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases while appropriately widening for high-risk predictions. Critically, we demonstrate that well-calibrated Bayesian uncertainties alone severely under-cover (14.1%), highlighting the necessity of our hybrid approach. This framework enables risk-stratified clinical protocols, efficient resource planning for high-confidence predictions, and conservative allocation with enhanced oversight for uncertain cases, providing uncertainty-aware decision support across diverse healthcare settings.

This paper develops the algorithmic and dynamical foundations of recursive ensemble learning driven by Fibonacci-type update flows. In contrast with classical boosting Freund and Schapire (1997); Friedman (2001), where the ensemble evolves through first-order additive updates, we study second-order recursive architectures in which each predictor depends on its two immediate predecessors. These Fibonacci flows induce a learning dynamic with memory, allowing ensembles to integrate past structure while adapting to new residual information. We introduce a general family of recursive weight-update algorithms encompassing Fibonacci, tribonacci, and higher-order recursions, together with continuous-time limits that yield systems of differential equations governing ensemble evolution. We establish global convergence conditions, spectral stability criteria, and non-asymptotic generalization bounds under Rademacher Bartlett and Mendelson (2002) and algorithmic stability analyses. The resulting theory unifies recursive ensembles, structured weighting, and dynamical systems viewpoints in statistical learning. Experiments with kernel ridge regression Rasmussen and Williams (2006), spline smoothers Wahba (1990), and random Fourier feature models Rahimi and Recht (2007) demonstrate that recursive flows consistently improve approximation and generalization beyond static weighting. These results complete the trilogy begun in Papers I and II: from Fibonacci weighting, through geometric weighting theory, to fully dynamical recursive ensemble learning systems.

This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to implement in practice due to model misspecification in parametric demand forms and the large data requirements and slow convergence of flexible nonparametric or machine learning approaches. Instead, we exploit the randomness inherent in modern algorithmic pricing, arising from the need to balance exploration and exploitation, and introduce an estimator that avoids explicit estimation and numerical integration of the demand function. Each observed purchase outcome at a randomized price is an unbiased estimate of demand and by carefully reweighting purchase outcomes using novel cumulative propensity weights (CPW), we are able to reconstruct the integral. Building on this idea, we introduce a doubly robust variant named the augmented cumulative propensity weighting (ACPW) estimator that only requires one of either the demand model or the historical pricing policy distribution to be correctly specified. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the use of flexible machine learning methods for estimating consumer surplus, since it achieves fast convergence rates by incorporating an estimate of demand, even when the machine learning estimate has slower convergence rates. Neither of these estimators is a standard application of off-policy evaluation techniques as the target estimand, consumer surplus, is unobserved. To address fairness, we extend this framework to an inequality-aware surplus measure, allowing regulators and firms to quantify the profit-equity trade-off. Finally, we validate our methods through comprehensive numerical studies.

Transfer learning aims to improve performance on a target task by leveraging information from related source tasks. We propose a nonparametric regression transfer learning framework that explicitly models heterogeneity in the source-target relationship. Our approach relies on a local transfer assumption: the covariate space is partitioned into finitely many cells such that, within each cell, the target regression function can be expressed as a low-complexity transformation of the source regression function. This localized structure enables effective transfer where similarity is present while limiting negative transfer elsewhere. We introduce estimators that jointly learn the local transfer functions and the target regression, together with fully data-driven procedures that adapt to unknown partition structure and transfer strength. We establish sharp minimax rates for target regression estimation, showing that local transfer can mitigate the curse of dimensionality by exploiting reduced functional complexity. Our theoretical guarantees take the form of oracle inequalities that decompose excess risk into estimation and approximation terms, ensuring robustness to model misspecification. Numerical experiments illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach.

Blind source separation, particularly through independent component analysis (ICA), is widely utilized across various signal processing domains for disentangling underlying components from observed mixed signals, owing to its fully data-driven nature that minimizes reliance on prior assumptions. However, conventional ICA methods rely on an assumption of linear mixing, limiting their ability to capture complex nonlinear relationships and to maintain robustness in noisy environments. In this work, we present deep deterministic nonlinear independent component analysis (DDICA), a novel deep neural network-based framework designed to address these limitations. DDICA leverages a matrix-based entropy function to directly optimize the independence criterion via stochastic gradient descent, bypassing the need for variational approximations or adversarial schemes. This results in a streamlined training process and improved resilience to noise. We validated the effectiveness and generalizability of DDICA across a range of applications, including simulated signal mixtures, hyperspectral image unmixing, modeling of primary visual receptive fields, and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that DDICA effectively separates independent components with high accuracy across a range of applications. These findings suggest that DDICA offers a robust and versatile solution for blind source separation in diverse signal processing tasks.

Topological methods have the potential of exploring data clouds without making assumptions on their the structure. Here we propose a hierarchical topological clustering algorithm that can be implemented with any distance choice. The persistence of outliers and clusters of arbitrary shape is inferred from the resulting hierarchy. We demonstrate the potential of the algorithm on selected datasets in which outliers play relevant roles, consisting of images, medical and economic data. These methods can provide meaningful clusters in situations in which other techniques fail to do so.

We study multi-user contextual bandits where users are related by a graph and their reward functions exhibit both non-linear behavior and graph homophily. We introduce a principled joint penalty for the collection of user reward functions $\{f_u\}$, combining a graph smoothness term based on RKHS distances with an individual roughness penalty. Our central contribution is proving that this penalty is equivalent to the squared norm within a single, unified \emph{multi-user RKHS}. We explicitly derive its reproducing kernel, which elegantly fuses the graph Laplacian with the base arm kernel. This unification allows us to reframe the problem as learning a single ''lifted'' function, enabling the design of principled algorithms, \texttt{LK-GP-UCB} and \texttt{LK-GP-TS}, that leverage Gaussian Process posteriors over this new kernel for exploration. We provide high-probability regret bounds that scale with an \emph{effective dimension} of the multi-user kernel, replacing dependencies on user count or ambient dimension. Empirically, our methods outperform strong linear and non-graph-aware baselines in non-linear settings and remain competitive even when the true rewards are linear. Our work delivers a unified, theoretically grounded, and practical framework that bridges Laplacian regularization with kernelized bandits for structured exploration.

Gradient-based optimization with categorical variables typically relies on score-function estimators, which are unbiased but noisy, or on continuous relaxations that replace the discrete distribution with a smooth surrogate admitting a pathwise (reparameterized) gradient, at the cost of optimizing a biased, temperature-dependent objective. In this paper, we extend this family of relaxations by introducing a diffusion-based soft reparameterization for categorical distributions. For these distributions, the denoiser under a Gaussian noising process admits a closed form and can be computed efficiently, yielding a training-free diffusion sampler through which we can backpropagate. Our experiments show that the proposed reparameterization trick yields competitive or improved optimization performance on various benchmarks.

A large and rapidly expanding literature demonstrates that machine learning (ML) methods substantially improve out-of-sample asset return prediction relative to conventional linear benchmarks, and that these statistical gains often translate into economically meaningful portfolio performance. Seminal contributions such as Gu et al. (2020) document large Sharpe ratio improvements from nonlinear learners in U.S. equities, while subsequent work extends these findings to stochastic discount factor estimation (Chen et al. 2024), international equity markets (Leippold et al. 2022), and bond return forecasting (Kelly et al. 2019, Bianchi et al. 2020). Collectively, this literature establishes ML as a powerful tool for extracting conditional expected returns in environments characterized by noisy signals, nonlinear interactions, and pervasive multicollinearity.