Statistical Learning
A tensor network formalism for neuro-symbolic AI
Goessmann, Alex, Schütte, Janina, Fröhlich, Maximilian, Eigel, Martin
The unification of neural and symbolic approaches to artificial intelligence remains a central open challenge. In this work, we introduce a tensor network formalism, which captures sparsity principles originating in the different approaches in tensor decompositions. In particular, we describe a basis encoding scheme for functions and model neural decompositions as tensor decompositions. The proposed formalism can be applied to represent logical formulas and probability distributions as structured tensor decompositions. This unified treatment identifies tensor network contractions as a fundamental inference class and formulates efficiently scaling reasoning algorithms, originating from probability theory and propositional logic, as contraction message passing schemes. The framework enables the definition and training of hybrid logical and probabilistic models, which we call Hybrid Logic Network. The theoretical concepts are accompanied by the python library tnreason, which enables the implementation and practical use of the proposed architectures.
Robust X-Learner: Breaking the Curse of Imbalance and Heavy Tails via Robust Cross-Imputation
Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) in industrial applications such as AdTech and healthcare presents a dual challenge: extreme class imbalance and heavy-tailed outcome distributions. While the X-Learner framework effectively addresses imbalance through cross-imputation, we demonstrate that it is fundamentally vulnerable to "Outlier Smearing" when reliant on Mean Squared Error (MSE) minimization. In this failure mode, the bias from a few extreme observations ("whales") in the minority group is propagated to the entire majority group during the imputation step, corrupting the estimated treatment effect structure. To resolve this, we propose the Robust X-Learner (RX-Learner). This framework integrates a redescending γ-divergence objective -- structurally equivalent to the Welsch loss under Gaussian assumptions -- into the gradient boosting machinery. We further stabilize the non-convex optimization using a Proxy Hessian strategy grounded in Majorization-Minimization (MM) principles. Empirical evaluation on a semi-synthetic Criteo Uplift dataset demonstrates that the RX-Learner reduces the Precision in Estimation of Heterogeneous Effect (PEHE) metric by 98.6% compared to the standard X-Learner, effectively decoupling the stable "Core" population from the volatile "Periphery".
Finite-Sample Inference for Sparsely Permuted Linear Regression
Ota, Hirofumi, Imaizumi, Masaaki
We study a linear observation model with an unknown permutation called \textit{permuted/shuffled linear regression}, where responses and covariates are mismatched and the permutation forms a discrete, factorial-size parameter. The permutation is a key component of the data-generating process, yet its statistical investigation remains challenging due to its discrete nature. We develop a general statistical inference framework on the permutation and regression coefficients. First, we introduce a localization step that reduces the permutation space to a small candidate set building on recent advances in the repro samples method, whose miscoverage decays polynomially with the number of Monte Carlo samples. Then, based on this localized set, we provide statistical inference procedures: a conditional Monte Carlo test of permutation structures with valid finite-sample Type-I error control. We also develop coefficient inference that remains valid under alignment uncertainty of permutations. For computational purposes, we develop a linear assignment problem computable in polynomial time and demonstrate that, with high probability, the solution is equivalent to that of the conventional least squares with large computational cost. Extensions to partially permuted designs and ridge regularization are further discussed. Extensive simulations and an application to air-quality data corroborate finite-sample validity, strong power to detect mismatches, and practical scalability.
Small Gradient Norm Regret for Online Convex Optimization
Gao, Wenzhi, He, Chang, Udell, Madeleine
This paper introduces a new problem-dependent regret measure for online convex optimization with smooth losses. The notion, which we call the $G^\star$ regret, depends on the cumulative squared gradient norm evaluated at the decision in hindsight $\sum_{t=1}^T \|\nabla \ell(x^\star)\|^2$. We show that the $G^\star$ regret strictly refines the existing $L^\star$ (small loss) regret, and that it can be arbitrarily sharper when the losses have vanishing curvature around the hindsight decision. We establish upper and lower bounds on the $G^\star$ regret and extend our results to dynamic regret and bandit settings. As a byproduct, we refine the existing convergence analysis of stochastic optimization algorithms in the interpolation regime. Some experiments validate our theoretical findings.
Fairness-informed Pareto Optimization : An Efficient Bilevel Framework
Tanji, Sofiane, Vaiter, Samuel, Laguel, Yassine
Despite their promise, fair machine learning methods often yield Pareto-inefficient models, in which the performance of certain groups can be improved without degrading that of others. This issue arises frequently in traditional in-processing approaches such as fairness-through-regularization. In contrast, existing Pareto-efficient approaches are biased towards a certain perspective on fairness and fail to adapt to the broad range of fairness metrics studied in the literature. In this paper, we present BADR, a simple framework to recover the optimal Pareto-efficient model for any fairness metric. Our framework recovers its models through a Bilevel Adaptive Rescalarisation procedure. The lower level is a weighted empirical risk minimization task where the weights are a convex combination of the groups, while the upper level optimizes the chosen fairness objective. We equip our framework with two novel large-scale, single-loop algorithms, BADR-GD and BADR-SGD, and establish their convergence guarantees. We release badr, an open-source Python toolbox implementing our framework for a variety of learning tasks and fairness metrics. Finally, we conduct extensive numerical experiments demonstrating the advantages of BADR over existing Pareto-efficient approaches to fairness.
Multi-context principal component analysis
Wang, Kexin, Bhate, Salil, Pereira, João M., Kileel, Joe, Figlerowicz, Matylda, Seigal, Anna
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a tool to capture factors that explain variation in data. Across domains, data are now collected across multiple contexts (for example, individuals with different diseases, cells of different types, or words across texts). While the factors explaining variation in data are undoubtedly shared across subsets of contexts, no tools currently exist to systematically recover such factors. We develop multi-context principal component analysis (MCPCA), a theoretical and algorithmic framework that decomposes data into factors shared across subsets of contexts. Applied to gene expression, MCPCA reveals axes of variation shared across subsets of cancer types and an axis whose variability in tumor cells, but not mean, is associated with lung cancer progression. Applied to contextualized word embeddings from language models, MCPCA maps stages of a debate on human nature, revealing a discussion between science and fiction over decades. These axes are not found by combining data across contexts or by restricting to individual contexts. MCPCA is a principled generalization of PCA to address the challenge of understanding factors underlying data across contexts.
Efficient and Minimax-optimal In-context Nonparametric Regression with Transformers
Ching, Michelle, Popescu, Ioana, Smith, Nico, Ma, Tianyi, Underwood, William G., Samworth, Richard J.
We study in-context learning for nonparametric regression with $α$-Hölder smooth regression functions, for some $α>0$. We prove that, with $n$ in-context examples and $d$-dimensional regression covariates, a pretrained transformer with $Θ(\log n)$ parameters and $Ω\bigl(n^{2α/(2α+d)}\log^3 n\bigr)$ pretraining sequences can achieve the minimax-optimal rate of convergence $O\bigl(n^{-2α/(2α+d)}\bigr)$ in mean squared error. Our result requires substantially fewer transformer parameters and pretraining sequences than previous results in the literature. This is achieved by showing that transformers are able to approximate local polynomial estimators efficiently by implementing a kernel-weighted polynomial basis and then running gradient descent.
Consistency of Honest Decision Trees and Random Forests
Bladt, Martin, Lemvig, Rasmus Frigaard
We study various types of consistency of honest decision trees and random forests in the regression setting. In contrast to related literature, our proofs are elementary and follow the classical arguments used for smoothing methods. Under mild regularity conditions on the regression function and data distribution, we establish weak and almost sure convergence of honest trees and honest forest averages to the true regression function, and moreover we obtain uniform convergence over compact covariate domains. The framework naturally accommodates ensemble variants based on subsampling and also a two-stage bootstrap sampling scheme. Our treatment synthesizes and simplifies existing analyses, in particular recovering several results as special cases. The elementary nature of the arguments clarifies the close relationship between data-adaptive partitioning and kernel-type methods, providing an accessible approach to understanding the asymptotic behavior of tree-based methods.
TRSVR: An Adaptive Stochastic Trust-Region Method with Variance Reduction
Fang, Yuchen, Zheng, Xinshou, Lavaei, Javad
We propose a stochastic trust-region method for unconstrained nonconvex optimization that incorporates stochastic variance-reduced gradients (SVRG) to accelerate convergence. Unlike classical trust-region methods, the proposed algorithm relies solely on stochastic gradient information and does not require function value evaluations. The trust-region radius is adaptively adjusted based on a radius-control parameter and the stochastic gradient estimate. Under mild assumptions, we establish that the algorithm converges in expectation to a first-order stationary point. Moreover, the method achieves iteration and sample complexity bounds that match those of SVRG-based first-order methods, while allowing stochastic and potentially gradient-dependent second-order information. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that incorporating SVRG accelerates convergence, and that the use of trust-region methods and Hessian information further improves performance. We also highlight the impact of batch size and inner-loop length on efficiency, and show that the proposed method outperforms SGD and Adam on several machine learning tasks.
Semi-Supervised Mixture Models under the Concept of Missing at Radom with Margin Confidence and Aranda Ordaz Function
Abstract--This paper presents a semi-supervised learning framework for Gaussian mixture modelling under a Missing at Random (MAR) mechanism. T o quantify classification uncertainty, we introduce margin confidence and incorporate the Aranda-Ordaz (AO) link function to flexibly capture the asymmetric relationships between uncertainty and missing probability. Based on this formulation, we develop an efficient Expectation-Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm that jointly estimates all parameters appearing in both the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and the missingness mechanism, and subsequently imputes the missing labels by a Bayesian classifier derived from the fitted mixture model. This method effectively alleviates the bias induced by ignoring the missingness mechanism while enhancing the robustness of semi-supervised learning. The resulting uncertainty-aware framework delivers reliable classification performance in realistic MAR scenarios with substantial proportions of missing labels.