Understanding generalization in deep learning has been one of the major challenges in statistical learning theory over the last decade. While recent work has illustrated that the dataset and the training algorithm must be taken into account in order to obtain meaningful generalization bounds, it is still theoretically not clear which properties of the data and the algorithm determine the generalization performance. In this study, we approach this problem from a dynamical systems theory perspective and represent stochastic optimization algorithms as \emph{random iterated function systems} (IFS). Well studied in the dynamical systems literature, under mild assumptions, such IFSs can be shown to be ergodic with an invariant measure that is often supported on sets with a \emph{fractal structure}. As our main contribution, we prove that the generalization error of a stochastic optimization algorithm can be bounded based on the `complexity' of the fractal structure that underlies its invariant measure. Then, by leveraging results from dynamical systems theory, we show that the generalization error can be explicitly linked to the choice of the algorithm (e.g., stochastic gradient descent -- SGD), algorithm hyperparameters (e.g., step-size, batch-size), and the geometry of the problem (e.g., Hessian of the loss). We further specialize our results to specific problems (e.g., linear/logistic regression, one hidden-layered neural networks) and algorithms (e.g., SGD and preconditioned variants), and obtain analytical estimates for our bound. For modern neural networks, we develop an efficient algorithm to compute the developed bound and support our theory with various experiments on neural networks.

Over the last century, risk scores have been the most popular form of predictive model used in healthcare and criminal justice. Risk scores are sparse linear models with integer coefficients; often these models can be memorized or placed on an index card. Typically, risk scores have been created either without data or by rounding logistic regression coefficients, but these methods do not reliably produce high-quality risk scores. Recent work used mathematical programming, which is computationally slow. We introduce an approach for efficiently producing a collection of high-quality risk scores learned from data. Specifically, our approach produces a pool of almost-optimal sparse continuous solutions, each with a different support set, using a beam-search algorithm. Each of these continuous solutions is transformed into a separate risk score through a star ray search, where a range of multipliers are considered before rounding the coefficients sequentially to maintain low logistic loss. Our algorithm returns all of these high-quality risk scores for the user to consider. This method completes within minutes and can be valuable in a broad variety of applications.

Recent work has leveraged the popular distributionally robust optimization paradigm to combat overfitting in classical logistic regression. While the resulting classification scheme displays a promising performance in numerical experiments, it is inherently limited to numerical features. In this paper, we show that distributionally robust logistic regression with mixed (\emph{i.e.}, numerical and categorical) features, despite amounting to an optimization problem of exponential size, admits a polynomial-time solution scheme. We subsequently develop a practically efficient cutting plane approach that solves the problem as a sequence of polynomial-time solvable exponential conic programs. Our method retains many of the desirable theoretical features of previous works, but---in contrast to the literature---it does not admit an equivalent representation as a regularized logistic regression, that is, it represents a genuinely novel variant of the logistic regression problem. We show that our method outperforms both the unregularized and the regularized logistic regression on categorical as well as mixed-feature benchmark instances.

The target network update frequency (TUF) is a central stabilization mechanism in (deep) Q-learning. However, their selection remains poorly understood and is often treated merely as another tunable hyperparameter rather than as a principled design decision. This work provides a theoretical analysis of target fixing in tabular Q-learning through the lens of approximate dynamic programming. We formulate periodic target updates as a nested optimization scheme in which each outer iteration applies an inexact Bellman optimality operator, approximated by a generic inner loop optimizer. Rigorous theory yields a finite-time convergence analysis for the asynchronous sampling setting, specializing to stochastic gradient descent in the inner loop. Our results deliver an explicit characterization of the bias-variance trade-off induced by the target update period, showing how to optimally set this critical hyperparameter. We prove that constant target update schedules are suboptimal, incurring a logarithmic overhead in sample complexity that is entirely avoidable with adaptive schedules. Our analysis shows that the optimal target update frequency increases geometrically over the course of the learning process.

Finite mixture models are widely used for unsupervised learning, but maximum likelihood estimation via EM suffers from degeneracy as components collapse. We introduce transcendental regularization, a penalized likelihood framework with analytic barrier functions that prevent degeneracy while maintaining asymptotic efficiency. The resulting Transcendental Algorithm for Mixtures of Distributions (TAMD) offers strong theoretical guarantees: identifiability, consistency, and robustness. Empirically, TAMD successfully stabilizes estimation and prevents collapse, yet achieves only modest improvements in classification accuracy-highlighting fundamental limits of mixture models for unsupervised learning in high dimensions. Our work provides both a novel theoretical framework and an honest assessment of practical limitations, implemented in an open-source R package.

Poisson-distributed latent variable models are widely used in computational neuroscience, but differentiating through discrete stochastic samples remains challenging. Two approaches address this: Exponential Arrival Time (EAT) simulation and Gumbel-SoftMax (GSM) relaxation. We provide the first systematic comparison of these methods, along with practical guidance for practitioners. Our main technical contribution is a modification to the EAT method that theoretically guarantees an unbiased first moment (exactly matching the firing rate), and reduces second-moment bias. We evaluate these methods on their distributional fidelity, gradient quality, and performance on two tasks: (1) variational autoencoders with Poisson latents, and (2) partially observable generalized linear models, where latent neural connectivity must be inferred from observed spike trains. Across all metrics, our modified EAT method exhibits better overall performance (often comparable to exact gradients), and substantially higher robustness to hyperparameter choices. Together, our results clarify the trade-offs between these methods and offer concrete recommendations for practitioners working with Poisson latent variable models.

We develop a general mathematical framework to analyze scaling regimes and derive explicit analytic solutions for gradient flow (GF) in large learning problems. Our key innovation is a formal power series expansion of the loss evolution, with coefficients encoded by diagrams akin to Feynman diagrams. We show that this expansion has a well-defined large-size limit that can be used to reveal different learning phases and, in some cases, to obtain explicit solutions of the nonlinear GF. We focus on learning Canonical Polyadic (CP) decompositions of high-order tensors, and show that this model has several distinct extreme lazy and rich GF regimes such as free evolution, NTK and under- and over-parameterized mean-field. We show that these regimes depend on the parameter scaling, tensor order, and symmetry of the model in a specific and subtle way. Moreover, we propose a general approach to summing the formal loss expansion by reducing it to a PDE; in a wide range of scenarios, it turns out to be 1st order and solvable by the method of characteristics. We observe a very good agreement of our theoretical predictions with experiment.

We propose a framework for the joint inference of network topology, multi-type interaction kernels, and latent type assignments in heterogeneous interacting particle systems from multi-trajectory data. This learning task is a challenging non-convex mixed-integer optimization problem, which we address through a novel three-stage approach. First, we leverage shared structure across agent interactions to recover a low-rank embedding of the system parameters via matrix sensing. Second, we identify discrete interaction types by clustering within the learned embedding. Third, we recover the network weight matrix and kernel coefficients through matrix factorization and a post-processing refinement. We provide theoretical guarantees with estimation error bounds under a Restricted Isometry Property (RIP) assumption and establish conditions for the exact recovery of interaction types based on cluster separability. Numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, including heterogeneous predator-prey systems, demonstrate that our method yields an accurate reconstruction of the underlying dynamics and is robust to noise.

A complete understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects involves characterizing the full conditional distribution of potential outcomes. To this end, we propose the Conditional Counterfactual Mean Embeddings (CCME), a framework that embeds conditional distributions of counterfactual outcomes into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Under this framework, we develop a two-stage meta-estimator for CCME that accommodates any RKHS-valued regression in each stage. Based on this meta-estimator, we develop three practical CCME estimators: (1) Ridge Regression estimator, (2) Deep Feature estimator that parameterizes the feature map by a neural network, and (3) Neural-Kernel estimator that performs RKHS-valued regression, with the coefficients parameterized by a neural network. We provide finite-sample convergence rates for all estimators, establishing that they possess the double robustness property. Our experiments demonstrate that our estimators accurately recover distributional features including multimodal structure of conditional counterfactual distributions.

Identifying and making statistical inferences on differential treatment effects (commonly known as subgroup analysis in clinical research) is central to precision health. Subgroup analysis allows practitioners to pinpoint populations for whom a treatment is especially beneficial or protective, thereby advancing targeted interventions. Tree based recursive partitioning methods are widely used for subgroup analysis due to their interpretability. Nevertheless, these approaches encounter significant limitations, including suboptimal partitions induced by greedy heuristics and overfitting from locally estimated splits, especially under limited sample sizes. To address these limitations, we propose a fused optimal causal tree method that leverages mixed integer optimization (MIO) to facilitate precise subgroup identification. Our approach ensures globally optimal partitions and introduces a parameter fusion constraint to facilitate information sharing across related subgroups. This design substantially improves subgroup discovery accuracy and enhances statistical efficiency. We provide theoretical guarantees by rigorously establishing out of sample risk bounds and comparing them with those of classical tree based methods. Empirically, our method consistently outperforms popular baselines in simulations. Finally, we demonstrate its practical utility through a case study on the Health and Aging Brain Study Health Disparities (HABS-HD) dataset, where our approach yields clinically meaningful insights.