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 Statistical Learning


$\beta^{4}$-IRT: A New $\beta^{3}$-IRT with Enhanced Discrimination Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Item response theory aims to estimate respondent's latent skills from their responses in tests composed of items with different levels of difficulty. Several models of item response theory have been proposed for different types of tasks, such as binary or probabilistic responses, response time, multiple responses, among others. In this paper, we propose a new version of $\beta^3$-IRT, called $\beta^{4}$-IRT, which uses the gradient descent method to estimate the model parameters. In $\beta^3$-IRT, abilities and difficulties are bounded, thus we employ link functions in order to turn $\beta^{4}$-IRT into an unconstrained gradient descent process. The original $\beta^3$-IRT had a symmetry problem, meaning that, if an item was initialised with a discrimination value with the wrong sign, e.g. negative when the actual discrimination should be positive, the fitting process could be unable to recover the correct discrimination and difficulty values for the item. In order to tackle this limitation, we modelled the discrimination parameter as the product of two new parameters, one corresponding to the sign and the second associated to the magnitude. We also proposed sensible priors for all parameters. We performed experiments to compare $\beta^{4}$-IRT and $\beta^3$-IRT regarding parameter recovery and our new version outperformed the original $\beta^3$-IRT. Finally, we made $\beta^{4}$-IRT publicly available as a Python package, along with the implementation of $\beta^3$-IRT used in our experiments.


MHCCL: Masked Hierarchical Cluster-Wise Contrastive Learning for Multivariate Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning semantic-rich representations from raw unlabeled time series data is critical for downstream tasks such as classification and forecasting. Contrastive learning has recently shown its promising representation learning capability in the absence of expert annotations. However, existing contrastive approaches generally treat each instance independently, which leads to false negative pairs that share the same semantics. To tackle this problem, we propose MHCCL, a Masked Hierarchical Cluster-wise Contrastive Learning model, which exploits semantic information obtained from the hierarchical structure consisting of multiple latent partitions for multivariate time series. Motivated by the observation that fine-grained clustering preserves higher purity while coarse-grained one reflects higher-level semantics, we propose a novel downward masking strategy to filter out fake negatives and supplement positives by incorporating the multi-granularity information from the clustering hierarchy. In addition, a novel upward masking strategy is designed in MHCCL to remove outliers of clusters at each partition to refine prototypes, which helps speed up the hierarchical clustering process and improves the clustering quality. We conduct experimental evaluations on seven widely-used multivariate time series datasets. The results demonstrate the superiority of MHCCL over the state-of-the-art approaches for unsupervised time series representation learning.


Topics in the Haystack: Extracting and Evaluating Topics beyond Coherence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extracting and identifying latent topics in large text corpora has gained increasing importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP). Most models, whether probabilistic models similar to Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) or neural topic models, follow the same underlying approach of topic interpretability and topic extraction. We propose a method that incorporates a deeper understanding of both sentence and document themes, and goes beyond simply analyzing word frequencies in the data. This allows our model to detect latent topics that may include uncommon words or neologisms, as well as words not present in the documents themselves. Additionally, we propose several new evaluation metrics based on intruder words and similarity measures in the semantic space. We present correlation coefficients with human identification of intruder words and achieve near-human level results at the word-intrusion task. We demonstrate the competitive performance of our method with a large benchmark study, and achieve superior results compared to state-of-the-art topic modeling and document clustering models.


A Machine Learning Approach to Forecasting Honey Production with Tree-Based Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The beekeeping sector has undergone considerable production variations over the past years due to adverse weather conditions, occurring more frequently as climate change progresses. These phenomena can be high-impact and cause the environment to be unfavorable to the bees' activity. We disentangle the honey production drivers with tree-based methods and predict honey production variations for hives in Italy, one of the largest honey producers in Europe. The database covers hundreds of beehive data from 2019-2022 gathered with advanced precision beekeeping techniques. We train and interpret the machine learning models making them prescriptive other than just predictive. Superior predictive performances of tree-based methods compared to standard linear techniques allow for better protection of bees' activity and assess potential losses for beekeepers for risk management.


Selective experience replay compression using coresets for lifelong deep reinforcement learning in medical imaging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Selective experience replay is a popular strategy for integrating lifelong learning with deep reinforcement learning. Selective experience replay aims to recount selected experiences from previous tasks to avoid catastrophic forgetting. Furthermore, selective experience replay based techniques are model agnostic and allow experiences to be shared across different models. However, storing experiences from all previous tasks make lifelong learning using selective experience replay computationally very expensive and impractical as the number of tasks increase. To that end, we propose a reward distribution-preserving coreset compression technique for compressing experience replay buffers stored for selective experience replay. We evaluated the coreset compression technique on the brain tumor segmentation (BRATS) dataset for the task of ventricle localization and on the whole-body MRI for localization of left knee cap, left kidney, right trochanter, left lung, and spleen. The coreset lifelong learning models trained on a sequence of 10 different brain MR imaging environments demonstrated excellent performance localizing the ventricle with a mean pixel error distance of 12.93 for the compression ratio of 10x. In comparison, the conventional lifelong learning model localized the ventricle with a mean pixel distance of 10.87. Similarly, the coreset lifelong learning models trained on whole-body MRI demonstrated no significant difference (p=0.28) between the 10x compressed coreset lifelong learning models and conventional lifelong learning models for all the landmarks. The mean pixel distance for the 10x compressed models across all the landmarks was 25.30, compared to 19.24 for the conventional lifelong learning models. Our results demonstrate that the potential of the coreset-based ERB compression method for compressing experiences without a significant drop in performance.


Decoding Visual Neural Representations by Multimodal Learning of Brain-Visual-Linguistic Features

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decoding human visual neural representations is a challenging task with great scientific significance in revealing vision-processing mechanisms and developing brain-like intelligent machines. Most existing methods are difficult to generalize to novel categories that have no corresponding neural data for training. The two main reasons are 1) the under-exploitation of the multimodal semantic knowledge underlying the neural data and 2) the small number of paired (stimuli-responses) training data. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents a generic neural decoding method called BraVL that uses multimodal learning of brain-visual-linguistic features. We focus on modeling the relationships between brain, visual and linguistic features via multimodal deep generative models. Specifically, we leverage the mixture-of-product-of-experts formulation to infer a latent code that enables a coherent joint generation of all three modalities. To learn a more consistent joint representation and improve the data efficiency in the case of limited brain activity data, we exploit both intra- and inter-modality mutual information maximization regularization terms. In particular, our BraVL model can be trained under various semi-supervised scenarios to incorporate the visual and textual features obtained from the extra categories. Finally, we construct three trimodal matching datasets, and the extensive experiments lead to some interesting conclusions and cognitive insights: 1) decoding novel visual categories from human brain activity is practically possible with good accuracy; 2) decoding models using the combination of visual and linguistic features perform much better than those using either of them alone; 3) visual perception may be accompanied by linguistic influences to represent the semantics of visual stimuli. Code and data: https://github.com/ChangdeDu/BraVL.


How Much Data Are Augmentations Worth? An Investigation into Scaling Laws, Invariance, and Implicit Regularization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the clear performance benefits of data augmentations, little is known about why they are so effective. In this paper, we disentangle several key mechanisms through which data augmentations operate. Establishing an exchange rate between augmented and additional real data, we find that in out-of-distribution testing scenarios, augmentations which yield samples that are diverse, but inconsistent with the data distribution can be even more valuable than additional training data. Moreover, we find that data augmentations which encourage invariances can be more valuable than invariance alone, especially on small and medium sized training sets. Following this observation, we show that augmentations induce additional stochasticity during training, effectively flattening the loss landscape.


Surrogate Neural Networks for Efficient Simulation-based Trajectory Planning Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel methodology that uses surrogate models in the form of neural networks to reduce the computation time of simulation-based optimization of a reference trajectory. Simulation-based optimization is necessary when there is no analytical form of the system accessible, only input-output data that can be used to create a surrogate model of the simulation. Like many high-fidelity simulations, this trajectory planning simulation is very nonlinear and computationally expensive, making it challenging to optimize iteratively. Through gradient descent optimization, our approach finds the optimal reference trajectory for landing a hypersonic vehicle. In contrast to the large datasets used to create the surrogate models in prior literature, our methodology is specifically designed to minimize the number of simulation executions required by the gradient descent optimizer. We demonstrated this methodology to be more efficient than the standard practice of hand-tuning the inputs through trial-and-error or randomly sampling the input parameter space. Due to the intelligently selected input values to the simulation, our approach yields better simulation outcomes that are achieved more rapidly and to a higher degree of accuracy. Optimizing the hypersonic vehicle's reference trajectory is very challenging due to the simulation's extreme nonlinearity, but even so, this novel approach found a 74% better-performing reference trajectory compared to nominal, and the numerical results clearly show a substantial reduction in computation time for designing future trajectories.


Unsupervised Word Segmentation Using Temporal Gradient Pseudo-Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unsupervised word segmentation in audio utterances is challenging as, in speech, there is typically no gap between words. In a preliminary experiment, we show that recent deep self-supervised features are very effective for word segmentation but require supervision for training the classification head. To extend their effectiveness to unsupervised word segmentation, we propose a pseudo-labeling strategy. Our approach relies on the observation that the temporal gradient magnitude of the embeddings (i.e. the distance between the embeddings of subsequent frames) is typically minimal far from the boundaries and higher nearer the boundaries. We use a thresholding function on the temporal gradient magnitude to define a psuedo-label for wordness. We train a linear classifier, mapping the embedding of a single frame to the pseudo-label. Finally, we use the classifier score to predict whether a frame is a word or a boundary. In an empirical investigation, our method, despite its simplicity and fast run time, is shown to significantly outperform all previous methods on two datasets.


Scalable Bayesian Meta-Learning through Generalized Implicit Gradients

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Meta-learning owns unique effectiveness and swiftness in tackling emerging tasks with limited data. Its broad applicability is revealed by viewing it as a bi-level optimization problem. The resultant algorithmic viewpoint however, faces scalability issues when the inner-level optimization relies on gradient-based iterations. Implicit differentiation has been considered to alleviate this challenge, but it is restricted to an isotropic Gaussian prior, and only favors deterministic meta-learning approaches. This work markedly mitigates the scalability bottleneck by cross-fertilizing the benefits of implicit differentiation to probabilistic Bayesian meta-learning. The novel implicit Bayesian meta-learning (iBaML) method not only broadens the scope of learnable priors, but also quantifies the associated uncertainty. Furthermore, the ultimate complexity is well controlled regardless of the inner-level optimization trajectory. Analytical error bounds are established to demonstrate the precision and efficiency of the generalized implicit gradient over the explicit one. Extensive numerical tests are also carried out to empirically validate the performance of the proposed method.