Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a robust framework that addresses model uncertainty and incorporates prior knowledge. Despite their theoretical strengths, the applicability of Bayesian methods is often constrained by computational needs, especially in modern contexts involving thousands of variables. To overcome this issue, we introduce two novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms that have a significantly lower computational cost than leading Bayesian approaches. Our proposed MCMC-based search algorithms use the marginal pseudo-likelihood approach to bypass the complexities of computing intractable normalizing constants and iterative precision matrix sampling. These algorithms can deliver reliable results in mere minutes on standard computers, even for large-scale problems with one thousand variables. Furthermore, our proposed method is capable of addressing model uncertainty by efficiently exploring the full posterior graph space. Our simulation study indicates that the proposed algorithms, particularly for large-scale sparse graphs, outperform the leading Bayesian approaches in terms of computational efficiency and precision. The implementation supporting the new approach is available through the R package BDgraph.

Conditional independence (CI) tests are widely used in statistical data analysis, e.g., they are the building block of many algorithms for causal graph discovery. The goal of a CI test is to accept or reject the null hypothesis that $X \perp \!\!\! \perp Y \mid Z$, where $X \in \mathbb{R}, Y \in \mathbb{R}, Z \in \mathbb{R}^d$. In this work, we investigate conditional independence testing under the constraint of differential privacy. We design two private CI testing procedures: one based on the generalized covariance measure of Shah and Peters (2020) and another based on the conditional randomization test of Cand\`es et al. (2016) (under the model-X assumption). We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our tests and validate them empirically. These are the first private CI tests with rigorous theoretical guarantees that work for the general case when $Z$ is continuous.

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no confoundedness assumption fails to hold. The recently proposed proximal causal inference framework shows that proxy variables that abound in real-life scenarios can be leveraged to identify causal effects and therefore facilitate decision-making. Building upon this line of work, we propose a novel optimal individualized treatment regime based on so-called outcome and treatment confounding bridges. We then show that the value function of this new optimal treatment regime is superior to that of existing ones in the literature. Theoretical guarantees, including identification, superiority, excess value bound, and consistency of the estimated regime, are established. Furthermore, we demonstrate the proposed optimal regime via numerical experiments and a real data application.

Bagging is a commonly used ensemble technique in statistics and machine learning to improve the performance of prediction procedures. In this paper, we study the prediction risk of variants of bagged predictors under the proportional asymptotics regime, in which the ratio of the number of features to the number of observations converges to a constant. Specifically, we propose a general strategy to analyze the prediction risk under squared error loss of bagged predictors using classical results on simple random sampling. Specializing the strategy, we derive the exact asymptotic risk of the bagged ridge and ridgeless predictors with an arbitrary number of bags under a well-specified linear model with arbitrary feature covariance matrices and signal vectors. Furthermore, we prescribe a generic cross-validation procedure to select the optimal subsample size for bagging and discuss its utility to eliminate the non-monotonic behavior of the limiting risk in the sample size (i.e., double or multiple descents). In demonstrating the proposed procedure for bagged ridge and ridgeless predictors, we thoroughly investigate the oracle properties of the optimal subsample size and provide an in-depth comparison between different bagging variants.

The core principle of Variational Inference (VI) is to convert the statistical inference problem of computing complex posterior probability densities into a tractable optimization problem. This property enables VI to be faster than several sampling-based techniques. However, the traditional VI algorithm is not scalable to large data sets and is unable to readily infer out-of-bounds data points without re-running the optimization process. Recent developments in the field, like stochastic-, black box-, and amortized-VI, have helped address these issues. Generative modeling tasks nowadays widely make use of amortized VI for its efficiency and scalability, as it utilizes a parameterized function to learn the approximate posterior density parameters. In this paper, we review the mathematical foundations of various VI techniques to form the basis for understanding amortized VI. Additionally, we provide an overview of the recent trends that address several issues of amortized VI, such as the amortization gap, generalization issues, inconsistent representation learning, and posterior collapse. Finally, we analyze alternate divergence measures that improve VI optimization.

We investigate if there is a peer influence or role model effect on successful graduation from Therapeutic Communities (TCs). We analyze anonymized individual-level observational data from 3 TCs that kept records of written exchanges of affirmations and corrections among residents, and their precise entry and exit dates. The affirmations allow us to form peer networks, and the entry and exit dates allow us to define a causal effect of interest. We conceptualize the causal role model effect as measuring the difference in the expected outcome of a resident (ego) who can observe one of their social contacts (e.g., peers who gave affirmations), to be successful in graduating before the ego's exit vs not successfully graduating before the ego's exit. Since peer influence is usually confounded with unobserved homophily in observational data, we model the network with a latent variable model to estimate homophily and include it in the outcome equation. We provide a theoretical guarantee that the bias of our peer influence estimator decreases with sample size. Our results indicate there is an effect of peers' graduation on the graduation of residents. The magnitude of peer influence differs based on gender, race, and the definition of the role model effect. A counterfactual exercise quantifies the potential benefits of intervention of assigning a buddy to "at-risk" individuals directly on the treated resident and indirectly on their peers through network propagation.

Representation Learning on Knowledge Graphs (KGs) is essential for downstream tasks. The dominant approach, KG Embedding (KGE), represents entities with independent vectors and faces the scalability challenge. Recent studies propose an alternative way for parameter efficiency, which represents entities by composing entity-corresponding codewords matched from predefined small-scale codebooks. We refer to the process of obtaining corresponding codewords of each entity as entity quantization, for which previous works have designed complicated strategies. Surprisingly, this paper shows that simple random entity quantization can achieve similar results to current strategies. We analyze this phenomenon and reveal that entity codes, the quantization outcomes for expressing entities, have higher entropy at the code level and Jaccard distance at the codeword level under random entity quantization. Therefore, different entities become more easily distinguished, facilitating effective KG representation. The above results show that current quantization strategies are not critical for KG representation, and there is still room for improvement in entity distinguishability beyond current strategies. The code to reproduce our results is available at https://github.com/JiaangL/RandomQuantization.

As the importance of eco-friendly transportation increases, providing an efficient approach for marine vessel operation is essential. Methods for status monitoring with consideration to the weather condition and forecasting with the use of in-service data from ships requires accurate and complete models for predicting the energy efficiency of a ship. The models need to effectively process all the operational data in real-time. This paper presents models that can predict fuel consumption using in-service data collected from a passenger ship. Statistical and domain-knowledge methods were used to select the proper input variables for the models. These methods prevent over-fitting, missing data, and multicollinearity while providing practical applicability. Prediction models that were investigated include multiple linear regression (MLR), decision tree approach (DT), an artificial neural network (ANN), and ensemble methods. The best predictive performance was from a model developed using the XGboost technique which is a boosting ensemble approach. \rvv{Our code is available on GitHub at \url{https://github.com/pagand/model_optimze_vessel/tree/OE} for future research.

Modeling groundwater levels continuously across California's Central Valley (CV) hydrological system is challenging due to low-quality well data which is sparsely and noisily sampled across time and space. A novel machine learning method is proposed for modeling groundwater levels by learning from a 3D lithological texture model of the CV aquifer. The proposed formulation performs multivariate regression by combining Gaussian processes (GP) and deep neural networks (DNN). Proposed hierarchical modeling approach constitutes training the DNN to learn a lithologically informed latent space where non-parametric regression with GP is performed. The methodology is applied for modeling groundwater levels across the CV during 2015 - 2020. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP-DNN regression for modeling non-stationary features in the well data with fast and reliable uncertainty quantification. Our results indicate that the 2017 and 2019 wet years in California were largely ineffective in replenishing the groundwater loss caused during previous drought years.

Fine-tuning a pre-trained deep neural network has become a successful paradigm in various machine learning tasks. However, such a paradigm becomes particularly challenging with tabular data when there are discrepancies between the feature sets of pre-trained models and the target tasks. In this paper, we propose TabToken, a method aims at enhancing the quality of feature tokens (i.e., embeddings of tabular features). TabToken allows for the utilization of pre-trained models when the upstream and downstream tasks share overlapping features, facilitating model fine-tuning even with limited training examples. Specifically, we introduce a contrastive objective that regularizes the tokens, capturing the semantics within and across features. During the pre-training stage, the tokens are learned jointly with top-layer deep models such as transformer. In the downstream task, tokens of the shared features are kept fixed while TabToken efficiently fine-tunes the remaining parts of the model. TabToken not only enables knowledge transfer from a pre-trained model to tasks with heterogeneous features, but also enhances the discriminative ability of deep tabular models in standard classification and regression tasks.