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 Statistical Learning


Improving Robustness via Tilted Exponential Layer: A Communication-Theoretic Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

State-of-the-art techniques for enhancing robustness of deep networks mostly rely on empirical risk minimization with suitable data augmentation. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach motivated by communication theory, aimed at enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio at the output of a neural network layer via neural competition during learning and inference. In addition to minimization of a standard end-to-end cost, neurons compete to sparsely represent layer inputs by maximization of a tilted exponential (TEXP) objective function for the layer. TEXP learning can be interpreted as maximum likelihood estimation of matched filters under a Gaussian model for data noise. Inference in a TEXP layer is accomplished by replacing batch norm by a tilted softmax, which can be interpreted as computation of posterior probabilities for the competing signaling hypotheses represented by each neuron. After providing insights via simplified models, we show, by experimentation on standard image datasets, that TEXP learning and inference enhances robustness against noise and other common corruptions, without requiring data augmentation. Further cumulative gains in robustness against this array of distortions can be obtained by appropriately combining TEXP with data augmentation techniques.


Scalable Probabilistic Forecasting in Retail with Gradient Boosted Trees: A Practitioner's Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The recent M5 competition has advanced the state-of-the-art in retail forecasting. However, we notice important differences between the competition challenge and the challenges we face in a large e-commerce company. The datasets in our scenario are larger (hundreds of thousands of time series), and e-commerce can afford to have a larger assortment than brick-and-mortar retailers, leading to more intermittent data. To scale to larger dataset sizes with feasible computational effort, firstly, we investigate a two-layer hierarchy and propose a top-down approach to forecasting at an aggregated level with less amount of series and intermittency, and then disaggregating to obtain the decision-level forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts are generated under distributional assumptions. Secondly, direct training at the lower level with subsamples can also be an alternative way of scaling. Performance of modelling with subsets is evaluated with the main dataset. Apart from a proprietary dataset, the proposed scalable methods are evaluated using the Favorita dataset and the M5 dataset. We are able to show the differences in characteristics of the e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retail datasets. Notably, our top-down forecasting framework enters the top 50 of the original M5 competition, even with models trained at a higher level under a much simpler setting.


Getting aligned on representational alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Biological and artificial information processing systems form representations that they can use to categorize, reason, plan, navigate, and make decisions. How can we measure the extent to which the representations formed by these diverse systems agree? Do similarities in representations then translate into similar behavior? How can a system's representations be modified to better match those of another system? These questions pertaining to the study of representational alignment are at the heart of some of the most active research areas in cognitive science, neuroscience, and machine learning. For example, cognitive scientists measure the representational alignment of multiple individuals to identify shared cognitive priors, neuroscientists align fMRI responses from multiple individuals into a shared representational space for group-level analyses, and ML researchers distill knowledge from teacher models into student models by increasing their alignment. Unfortunately, there is limited knowledge transfer between research communities interested in representational alignment, so progress in one field often ends up being rediscovered independently in another. Thus, greater cross-field communication would be advantageous. To improve communication between these fields, we propose a unifying framework that can serve as a common language between researchers studying representational alignment. We survey the literature from all three fields and demonstrate how prior work fits into this framework. Finally, we lay out open problems in representational alignment where progress can benefit all three of these fields. We hope that our work can catalyze cross-disciplinary collaboration and accelerate progress for all communities studying and developing information processing systems. We note that this is a working paper and encourage readers to reach out with their suggestions for future revisions.


An Alternative to Variance: Gini Deviation for Risk-averse Policy Gradient

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Restricting the variance of a policy's return is a popular choice in risk-averse Reinforcement Learning (RL) due to its clear mathematical definition and easy interpretability. Traditional methods directly restrict the total return variance. Recent methods restrict the per-step reward variance as a proxy. We thoroughly examine the limitations of these variance-based methods, such as sensitivity to numerical scale and hindering of policy learning, and propose to use an alternative risk measure, Gini deviation, as a substitute. We study various properties of this new risk measure and derive a policy gradient algorithm to minimize it. Empirical evaluation in domains where risk-aversion can be clearly defined, shows that our algorithm can mitigate the limitations of variance-based risk measures and achieves high return with low risk in terms of variance and Gini deviation when others fail to learn a reasonable policy.


BiSLS/SPS: Auto-tune Step Sizes for Stable Bi-level Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The popularity of bi-level optimization (BO) in deep learning has spurred a growing interest in studying gradient-based BO algorithms. However, existing algorithms involve two coupled learning rates that can be affected by approximation errors when computing hypergradients, making careful fine-tuning necessary to ensure fast convergence. To alleviate this issue, we investigate the use of recently proposed adaptive step-size methods, namely stochastic line search (SLS) and stochastic Polyak step size (SPS), for computing both the upper and lower-level learning rates. First, we revisit the use of SLS and SPS in single-level optimization without the additional interpolation condition that is typically assumed in prior works. For such settings, we investigate new variants of SLS and SPS that improve upon existing suggestions in the literature and are simpler to implement. Importantly, these two variants can be seen as special instances of general family of methods with an envelope-type step-size. This unified envelope strategy allows for the extension of the algorithms and their convergence guarantees to BO settings. Finally, our extensive experiments demonstrate that the new algorithms, which are available in both SGD and Adam versions, can find large learning rates with minimal tuning and converge faster than corresponding vanilla SGD or Adam BO algorithms that require fine-tuning.


Discovering Universal Geometry in Embeddings with ICA

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study utilizes Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to unveil a consistent semantic structure within embeddings of words or images. Our approach extracts independent semantic components from the embeddings of a pre-trained model by leveraging anisotropic information that remains after the whitening process in Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We demonstrate that each embedding can be expressed as a composition of a few intrinsic interpretable axes and that these semantic axes remain consistent across different languages, algorithms, and modalities. The discovery of a universal semantic structure in the geometric patterns of embeddings enhances our understanding of the representations in embeddings.


Online Continual Learning Without the Storage Constraint

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional online continual learning (OCL) research has primarily focused on mitigating catastrophic forgetting with fixed and limited storage allocation throughout an agent's lifetime. However, a broad range of real-world applications are primarily constrained by computational costs rather than storage limitations. In this paper, we target such applications, investigating the online continual learning problem under relaxed storage constraints and limited computational budgets. We contribute a simple algorithm, which updates a kNN classifier continually along with a fixed, pretrained feature extractor. We selected this algorithm due to its exceptional suitability for online continual learning. It can adapt to rapidly changing streams, has zero stability gap, operates within tiny computational budgets, has low storage requirements by only storing features, and has a consistency property: It never forgets previously seen data. These attributes yield significant improvements, allowing our proposed algorithm to outperform existing methods by over 20% in accuracy on two large-scale OCL datasets: Continual LOCalization (CLOC) with 39M images and 712 classes and Continual Google Landmarks V2 (CGLM) with 580K images and 10,788 classes, even when existing methods retain all previously seen images. Furthermore, we achieve this superior performance with considerably reduced computational and storage expenses. We provide code to reproduce our results at github.com/drimpossible/ACM.


SIESTA: Efficient Online Continual Learning with Sleep

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In supervised continual learning, a deep neural network (DNN) is updated with an ever-growing data stream. Unlike the offline setting where data is shuffled, we cannot make any distributional assumptions about the data stream. Ideally, only one pass through the dataset is needed for computational efficiency. However, existing methods are inadequate and make many assumptions that cannot be made for real-world applications, while simultaneously failing to improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel continual learning method, SIESTA based on wake/sleep framework for training, which is well aligned to the needs of on-device learning. The major goal of SIESTA is to advance compute efficient continual learning so that DNNs can be updated efficiently using far less time and energy. The principal innovations of SIESTA are: 1) rapid online updates using a rehearsal-free, backpropagation-free, and data-driven network update rule during its wake phase, and 2) expedited memory consolidation using a compute-restricted rehearsal policy during its sleep phase. For memory efficiency, SIESTA adapts latent rehearsal using memory indexing from REMIND. Compared to REMIND and prior arts, SIESTA is far more computationally efficient, enabling continual learning on ImageNet-1K in under 2 hours on a single GPU; moreover, in the augmentation-free setting it matches the performance of the offline learner, a milestone critical to driving adoption of continual learning in real-world applications.


Norm of Word Embedding Encodes Information Gain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Distributed representations of words encode lexical semantic information, but what type of information is encoded and how? Focusing on the skip-gram with negative-sampling method, we found that the squared norm of static word embedding encodes the information gain conveyed by the word; the information gain is defined by the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the co-occurrence distribution of the word to the unigram distribution. Our findings are explained by the theoretical framework of the exponential family of probability distributions and confirmed through precise experiments that remove spurious correlations arising from word frequency. This theory also extends to contextualized word embeddings in language models or any neural networks with the softmax output layer. We also demonstrate that both the KL divergence and the squared norm of embedding provide a useful metric of the informativeness of a word in tasks such as keyword extraction, proper-noun discrimination, and hypernym discrimination.


Beyond Ensemble Averages: Leveraging Climate Model Ensembles for Subseasonal Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. Recent studies have shown promising results using machine learning (ML) models to advance subseasonal forecasting (SSF), but several open questions remain. First, several past approaches use the average of an ensemble of physics-based forecasts as an input feature of these models. However, ensemble forecasts contain information that can aid prediction beyond only the ensemble mean. Second, past methods have focused on average performance, whereas forecasts of extreme events are far more important for planning and mitigation purposes. Third, climate forecasts correspond to a spatially-varying collection of forecasts, and different methods account for spatial variability in the response differently. Trade-offs between different approaches may be mitigated with model stacking. This paper describes the application of a variety of ML methods used to predict monthly average precipitation and two meter temperature using physics-based predictions (ensemble forecasts) and observational data such as relative humidity, pressure at sea level, or geopotential height, two weeks in advance for the whole continental United States. Regression, quantile regression, and tercile classification tasks using linear models, random forests, convolutional neural networks, and stacked models are considered. The proposed models outperform common baselines such as historical averages (or quantiles) and ensemble averages (or quantiles). This paper further includes an investigation of feature importance, trade-offs between using the full ensemble or only the ensemble average, and different modes of accounting for spatial variability.