The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a profound impact on the global economy and continues to exact a significant toll on human lives. The COVID-19 case growth rate stands as a key epidemiological parameter to estimate and monitor for effective detection and containment of the resurgence of outbreaks. A fundamental challenge in growth rate estimation and hence outbreak detection is balancing the accuracy-speed tradeoff, where accuracy typically degrades with shorter fitting windows. In this paper, we develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm, which we call Transfer Learning Generalized Random Forest (TLGRF), that balances this accuracy-speed tradeoff. Specifically, we estimate the instantaneous COVID-19 exponential growth rate for each U.S. county by using TLGRF that chooses an adaptive fitting window size based on relevant day-level and county-level features affecting the disease spread. Through transfer learning, TLGRF can accurately estimate case growth rates for counties with small sample sizes. Out-of-sample prediction analysis shows that TLGRF outperforms established growth rate estimation methods. Furthermore, we conducted a case study based on outbreak case data from the state of Colorado and showed that the timely detection of outbreaks could have been improved by up to 224% using TLGRF when compared to the decisions made by Colorado's Department of Health and Environment (CDPHE). To facilitate implementation, we have developed a publicly available outbreak detection tool for timely detection of COVID-19 outbreaks in each U.S. county, which received substantial attention from policymakers.

Machine learning methods often assume input features are available at no cost. However, in domains like healthcare, where acquiring features could be expensive or harmful, it is necessary to balance a feature's acquisition cost against its predictive value. The task of training an AI agent to decide which features to acquire is called active feature acquisition (AFA). By deploying an AFA agent, we effectively alter the acquisition strategy and trigger a distribution shift. To safely deploy AFA agents under this distribution shift, we present the problem of active feature acquisition performance evaluation (AFAPE). We examine AFAPE under i) a no direct effect (NDE) assumption, stating that acquisitions don't affect the underlying feature values; and ii) a no unobserved confounding (NUC) assumption, stating that retrospective feature acquisition decisions were only based on observed features. We show that one can apply offline reinforcement learning under the NUC assumption and missing data methods under the NDE assumption. When NUC and NDE hold, we propose a novel semi-offline reinforcement learning framework, which requires a weaker positivity assumption and yields more data-efficient estimators. We introduce three novel estimators: a direct method (DM), an inverse probability weighting (IPW), and a double reinforcement learning (DRL) estimator.

This paper presents new quadrature rules for functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space using nodes drawn by a sampling algorithm known as randomly pivoted Cholesky. The resulting computational procedure compares favorably to previous kernel quadrature methods, which either achieve low accuracy or require solving a computationally challenging sampling problem. Theoretical and numerical results show that randomly pivoted Cholesky is fast and achieves comparable quadrature error rates to more computationally expensive quadrature schemes based on continuous volume sampling, thinning, and recombination. Randomly pivoted Cholesky is easily adapted to complicated geometries with arbitrary kernels, unlocking new potential for kernel quadrature.

The Classification Tree (CT) is one of the most common models in interpretable machine learning. Although such models are usually built with greedy strategies, in recent years, thanks to remarkable advances in Mixer-Integer Programming (MIP) solvers, several exact formulations of the learning problem have been developed. In this paper, we argue that some of the most relevant ones among these training models can be encapsulated within a general framework, whose instances are shaped by the specification of loss functions and regularizers. Next, we introduce a novel realization of this framework: specifically, we consider the logistic loss, handled in the MIP setting by a linear piece-wise approximation, and couple it with $\ell_1$-regularization terms. The resulting Optimal Logistic Tree model numerically proves to be able to induce trees with enhanced interpretability features and competitive generalization capabilities, compared to the state-of-the-art MIP-based approaches.

Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable, machine learning-based emulators trained on existing simulation data can project additional climate scenarios much faster and are computationally efficient. However, they often lack generalizability and interpretability. This work delves into the potential of causal representation learning, specifically the \emph{Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding} (CDSD) method, which could render climate model emulation efficient \textit{and} interpretable. We evaluate CDSD on multiple climate datasets, focusing on emissions, temperature, and precipitation. Our findings shed light on the challenges, limitations, and promise of using CDSD as a stepping stone towards more interpretable and robust climate model emulation.

Researchers in natural science need reliable methods for quantifying animal behavior. Recently, numerous computer vision methods emerged to automate the process. However, observing wild species at remote locations remains a challenging task due to difficult lighting conditions and constraints on power supply and data storage. Event cameras offer unique advantages for battery-dependent remote monitoring due to their low power consumption and high dynamic range capabilities. We use this novel sensor to quantify a behavior in Chinstrap penguins called ecstatic display. We formulate the problem as a temporal action detection task, determining the start and end times of the behavior. For this purpose, we recorded a colony of breeding penguins in Antarctica during several weeks and labeled event data on 16 nests. The developed method consists of a generator of candidate time intervals (proposals) and a classifier of the actions within them. The experiments show that the event cameras' natural response to motion is effective for continuous behavior monitoring and detection, reaching a mean average precision (mAP) of 58% (which increases to 63% in good weather conditions). The results also demonstrate the robustness against various lighting conditions contained in the challenging dataset. The low-power capabilities of the event camera allows to record three times longer than with a conventional camera. This work pioneers the use of event cameras for remote wildlife observation, opening new interdisciplinary opportunities. https://tub-rip.github.io/eventpenguins/

Among the commonly used non-destructive techniques, the Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) is one of the most widely adopted today for assessing pavement conditions in France. However, conventional radar systems and their forward processing methods have shown their limitations for the physical and geometrical characterization of very thin layers such as tack coats. However, the use of Machine Learning methods applied to GPR with an inverse approach showed that it was numerically possible to identify the tack coat characteristics despite masking effects due to low timefrequency resolution noted in the raw B-scans. Thus, we propose in this paper to apply the inverse approach based on Machine Learning, already validated in previous works on numerical data, on two experimental cases with different pavement structures. The first case corresponds to a validation on known pavement structures on the Gustave Eiffel University (Nantes, France) with its pavement fatigue carousel and the second case focuses on a new real road in Vend{\'e}e department (France). In both case studies, the performances of SVM/SVR methods showed the efficiency of supervised learning methods to classify and estimate the emulsion proportioning in the tack coats.

Designing civil structures such as bridges, dams or buildings is a complex task requiring many synergies from several experts. Each is responsible for different parts of the process. This is often done in a sequential manner, e.g. the structural engineer makes a design under the assumption of certain material properties (e.g. the strength class of the concrete), and then the material engineer optimizes the material with these restrictions. This paper proposes a holistic optimization procedure, which combines the concrete mixture design and structural simulations in a joint, forward workflow that we ultimately seek to invert. In this manner, new mixtures beyond standard ranges can be considered. Any design effort should account for the presence of uncertainties which can be aleatoric or epistemic as when data is used to calibrate physical models or identify models that fill missing links in the workflow. Inverting the causal relations established poses several challenges especially when these involve physics-based models which most often than not do not provide derivatives/sensitivities or when design constraints are present. To this end, we advocate Variational Optimization, with proposed extensions and appropriately chosen heuristics to overcome the aforementioned challenges. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the design of a precast concrete beam with the objective to minimize the global warming potential while satisfying a number of constraints associated with its load-bearing capacity after 28days according to the Eurocode, the demoulding time as computed by a complex nonlinear Finite Element model, and the maximum temperature during the hydration.

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the number of malware attacks that use encrypted HTTP traffic for self-propagation or communication. Antivirus software and firewalls typically will not have access to encryption keys, and therefore direct detection of malicious encrypted data is unlikely to succeed. However, previous work has shown that traffic analysis can provide indications of malicious intent, even in cases where the underlying data remains encrypted. In this paper, we apply three machine learning techniques to the problem of distinguishing malicious encrypted HTTP traffic from benign encrypted traffic and obtain results comparable to previous work. We then consider the problem of feature analysis in some detail. Previous work has often relied on human expertise to determine the most useful and informative features in this problem domain. We demonstrate that such feature-related information can be obtained directly from machine learning models themselves. We argue that such a machine learning based approach to feature analysis is preferable, as it is more reliable, and we can, for example, uncover relatively unintuitive interactions between features.

Fall detection, particularly critical for high-risk demographics like the elderly, is a key public health concern where timely detection can greatly minimize harm. With the advancements in radio frequency technology, radar has emerged as a powerful tool for human detection and tracking. Traditional machine learning algorithms, such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), have shown promising outcomes. However, deep learning approaches, notably Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), have outperformed in learning intricate features and managing large, unstructured datasets. This survey offers an in-depth analysis of radar-based fall detection, with emphasis on Micro-Doppler, Range-Doppler, and Range-Doppler-Angles techniques. We discuss the intricacies and challenges in fall detection and emphasize the necessity for a clear definition of falls and appropriate detection criteria, informed by diverse influencing factors. We present an overview of radar signal processing principles and the underlying technology of radar-based fall detection, providing an accessible insight into machine learning and deep learning algorithms. After examining 74 research articles on radar-based fall detection published since 2000, we aim to bridge current research gaps and underscore the potential future research strategies, emphasizing the real-world applications possibility and the unexplored potential of deep learning in improving radar-based fall detection.