Statistical Learning
Decoding In-Context Learning: Neuroscience-inspired Analysis of Representations in Large Language Models
Yousefi, Safoora, Betthauser, Leo, Hasanbeig, Hosein, Millière, Raphaël, Momennejad, Ida
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable performance improvement through in-context learning (ICL) by leveraging task-specific examples in the input. However, the mechanisms behind this improvement remain elusive. In this work, we investigate how LLM embeddings and attention representations change following in-context-learning, and how these changes mediate improvement in behavior. We employ neuroscience-inspired techniques such as representational similarity analysis (RSA) and propose novel methods for parameterized probing and measuring ratio of attention to relevant vs. irrelevant information in Llama-2 70B and Vicuna 13B. We designed two tasks with a priori relationships among their conditions: linear regression and reading comprehension. We formed hypotheses about expected similarities in task representations and measured hypothesis alignment of LLM representations before and after ICL as well as changes in attention. Our analyses revealed a meaningful correlation between improvements in behavior after ICL and changes in both embeddings and attention weights across LLM layers. This empirical framework empowers a nuanced understanding of how latent representations shape LLM behavior, offering valuable tools and insights for future research and practical applications.
CC-VPSTO: Chance-Constrained Via-Point-based Stochastic Trajectory Optimisation for Safe and Efficient Online Robot Motion Planning
Brudermüller, Lara, Berger, Guillaume, Jankowski, Julius, Bhattacharyya, Raunak, Hawes, Nick
Safety in the face of uncertainty is a key challenge in robotics. We introduce a real-time capable framework to generate safe and task-efficient robot motions for stochastic control problems. We frame this as a chance-constrained optimisation problem constraining the probability of the controlled system to violate a safety constraint to be below a set threshold. To estimate this probability we propose a Monte--Carlo approximation. We suggest several ways to construct the problem given a fixed number of uncertainty samples, such that it is a reliable over-approximation of the original problem, i.e. any solution to the sample-based problem adheres to the original chance-constraint with high confidence. To solve the resulting problem, we integrate it into our motion planner VP-STO and name the enhanced framework Chance-Constrained (CC)-VPSTO. The strengths of our approach lie in i) its generality, without assumptions on the underlying uncertainty distribution, system dynamics, cost function, or the form of inequality constraints; and ii) its applicability to MPC-settings. We demonstrate the validity and efficiency of our approach on both simulation and real-world robot experiments.
ClimSim: A large multi-scale dataset for hybrid physics-ML climate emulation
Yu, Sungduk, Hannah, Walter, Peng, Liran, Lin, Jerry, Bhouri, Mohamed Aziz, Gupta, Ritwik, Lütjens, Björn, Will, Justus Christopher, Behrens, Gunnar, Busecke, Julius, Loose, Nora, Stern, Charles I, Beucler, Tom, Harrop, Bryce, Hillman, Benjamin R, Jenney, Andrea, Ferretti, Savannah, Liu, Nana, Anandkumar, Anima, Brenowitz, Noah D, Eyring, Veronika, Geneva, Nicholas, Gentine, Pierre, Mandt, Stephan, Pathak, Jaideep, Subramaniam, Akshay, Vondrick, Carl, Yu, Rose, Zanna, Laure, Zheng, Tian, Abernathey, Ryan, Ahmed, Fiaz, Bader, David C, Baldi, Pierre, Barnes, Elizabeth, Bretherton, Christopher, Caldwell, Peter, Chuang, Wayne, Han, Yilun, Huang, Yu, Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando, Jantre, Sanket, Kashinath, Karthik, Khairoutdinov, Marat, Kurth, Thorsten, Lutsko, Nicholas, Ma, Po-Lun, Mooers, Griffin, Neelin, J. David, Randall, David, Shamekh, Sara, Taylor, Mark A, Urban, Nathan, Yuval, Janni, Zhang, Guang, Pritchard, Michael
Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring.
Exploring higher-order neural network node interactions with total correlation
Kerby, Thomas, White, Teresa, Moon, Kevin
All of these methods require either an input of and the human brain the variables interact interest or the class labels and are thus supervised. in complex ways. Yet accurately characterizing higher-order variable interactions (HOIs) is a difficult In response to the challenges posed by understanding neural problem that is further exacerbated when the networks and analyzing higher-order variable interactions HOIs change across the data. To solve this problem (HOIs), we present Local CorEx, a novel post hoc method we propose a new method called Local Correlation suitable for exploring model weights, nodes, subnetworks, Explanation (CorEx) to capture HOIs at a and latent representations in an unsupervised manner. Here local scale by first clustering data points based on we focus our attention on analyzing groups of hidden nodes their proximity on the data manifold. We then use and latent representations. To the best of our knowledge, our a multivariate version of the mutual information work marks the first post hoc method to do so in an unsupervised called the total correlation, to construct a latent manner and includes the option to easily incorporate factor representation of the data within each cluster label information. Additionally, our approach extends to to learn the local HOIs. We use Local CorEx analyzing HOIs within the data.
Network Alignment with Transferable Graph Autoencoders
He, Jiashu, Kanatsoulis, Charilaos I., Ribeiro, Alejandro
Network alignment is the task of establishing one-to-one correspondences between the nodes of different graphs and finds a plethora of applications in high-impact domains. However, this task is known to be NP-hard in its general form, and existing algorithms do not scale up as the size of the graphs increases. To tackle both challenges we propose a novel generalized graph autoencoder architecture, designed to extract powerful and robust node embeddings, that are tailored to the alignment task. We prove that the generated embeddings are associated with the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the graphs and can achieve more accurate alignment compared to classical spectral methods. Our proposed framework also leverages transfer learning and data augmentation to achieve efficient network alignment at a very large scale without retraining. Extensive experiments on both network and sub-network alignment with real-world graphs provide corroborating evidence supporting the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed approach.
Measuring machine learning harms from stereotypes: requires understanding who is being harmed by which errors in what ways
Wang, Angelina, Bai, Xuechunzi, Barocas, Solon, Blodgett, Su Lin
As machine learning applications proliferate, we need an understanding of their potential for harm. However, current fairness metrics are rarely grounded in human psychological experiences of harm. Drawing on the social psychology of stereotypes, we use a case study of gender stereotypes in image search to examine how people react to machine learning errors. First, we use survey studies to show that not all machine learning errors reflect stereotypes nor are equally harmful. Then, in experimental studies we randomly expose participants to stereotype-reinforcing, -violating, and -neutral machine learning errors. We find stereotype-reinforcing errors induce more experientially (i.e., subjectively) harmful experiences, while having minimal changes to cognitive beliefs, attitudes, or behaviors. This experiential harm impacts women more than men. However, certain stereotype-violating errors are more experientially harmful for men, potentially due to perceived threats to masculinity. We conclude that harm cannot be the sole guide in fairness mitigation, and propose a nuanced perspective depending on who is experiencing what harm and why.
Dimensionality reduction can be used as a surrogate model for high-dimensional forward uncertainty quantification
Kim, Jungho, Yi, Sang-ri, Wang, Ziqi
We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational model admits a low-dimensional representation. This assumption can be met by numerous uncertainty quantification applications with physics-based computational models. The proposed approach differs from a sequential application of dimensionality reduction followed by surrogate modeling, as we "extract" a surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in the input-output space. This feature becomes desirable when the input space is genuinely high-dimensional. The proposed method also diverges from the Probabilistic Learning on Manifold, as a reconstruction mapping from the feature space to the input-output space is circumvented. The final product of the proposed method is a stochastic simulator that propagates a deterministic input into a stochastic output, preserving the convenience of a sequential "dimensionality reduction + Gaussian process regression" approach while overcoming some of its limitations. The proposed method is demonstrated through two uncertainty quantification problems characterized by high-dimensional input uncertainties.
Fast Online Changepoint Detection
Ghezzi, Fabrizio, Rossi, Eduardo, Trapani, Lorenzo
We study online changepoint detection in the context of a linear regression model. We propose a class of heavily weighted statistics based on the CUSUM process of the regression residuals, which are specifically designed to ensure timely detection of breaks occurring early on during the monitoring horizon. We subsequently propose a class of composite statistics, constructed using different weighing schemes; the decision rule to mark a changepoint is based on the largest statistic across the various weights, thus effectively working like a veto-based voting mechanism, which ensures fast detection irrespective of the location of the changepoint. Our theory is derived under a very general form of weak dependence, thus being able to apply our tests to virtually all time series encountered in economics, medicine, and other applied sciences. Monte Carlo simulations show that our methodologies are able to control the procedure-wise Type I Error, and have short detection delays in the presence of breaks.
Random features models: a way to study the success of naive imputation
Ayme, Alexis, Boyer, Claire, Dieuleveut, Aymeric, Scornet, Erwan
Constant (naive) imputation is still widely used in practice as this is a first easy-to-use technique to deal with missing data. Yet, this simple method could be expected to induce a large bias for prediction purposes, as the imputed input may strongly differ from the true underlying data. However, recent works suggest that this bias is low in the context of high-dimensional linear predictors when data is supposed to be missing completely at random (MCAR). This paper completes the picture for linear predictors by confirming the intuition that the bias is negligible and that surprisingly naive imputation also remains relevant in very low dimension.To this aim, we consider a unique underlying random features model, which offers a rigorous framework for studying predictive performances, whilst the dimension of the observed features varies.Building on these theoretical results, we establish finite-sample bounds on stochastic gradient (SGD) predictors applied to zero-imputed data, a strategy particularly well suited for large-scale learning.If the MCAR assumption appears to be strong, we show that similar favorable behaviors occur for more complex missing data scenarios.
Combining additivity and active subspaces for high-dimensional Gaussian process modeling
Binois, Mickael, Picheny, Victor
Gaussian processes are a widely embraced technique for regression and classification due to their good prediction accuracy, analytical tractability and built-in capabilities for uncertainty quantification. However, they suffer from the curse of dimensionality whenever the number of variables increases. This challenge is generally addressed by assuming additional structure in theproblem, the preferred options being either additivity or low intrinsic dimensionality. Our contribution for high-dimensional Gaussian process modeling is to combine them with a multi-fidelity strategy, showcasing the advantages through experiments on synthetic functions and datasets.