Online prediction of time series under regime switching is a widely studied problem in the literature, with many celebrated approaches. Using the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes, the recently proposed INTEL algorithm provides a product of experts approach to online prediction of time series under possible regime switching, including the special case of outliers. This is achieved by adaptively combining several candidate models, each reporting their predictive distribution at time $t$. However, the INTEL algorithm uses a finite context window approximation to the predictive distribution, the computation of which scales cubically with the maximum lag, or otherwise scales quartically with exact predictive distributions. We introduce LINTEL, which uses the exact filtering distribution at time $t$ with constant-time updates, making the time complexity of the streaming algorithm optimal. We additionally note that the weighting mechanism of INTEL is better suited to a mixture of experts approach, and propose a fusion policy based on arithmetic averaging for LINTEL. We show experimentally that our proposed approach is over five times faster than INTEL under reasonable settings with better quality predictions.

Data subsampling is one of the most natural methods to approximate a massively large data set by a small representative proxy. In particular, sensitivity sampling received a lot of attention, which samples points proportional to an individual importance measure called sensitivity. This framework reduces in very general settings the size of data to roughly the VC dimension $d$ times the total sensitivity $\mathfrak S$ while providing strong $(1\pm\varepsilon)$ guarantees on the quality of approximation. The recent work of Woodruff & Yasuda (2023c) improved substantially over the general $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}\mathfrak Sd)$ bound for the important problem of $\ell_p$ subspace embeddings to $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}\mathfrak S^{2/p})$ for $p\in[1,2]$. Their result was subsumed by an earlier $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}\mathfrak Sd^{1-p/2})$ bound which was implicitly given in the work of Chen & Derezinski (2021). We show that their result is tight when sampling according to plain $\ell_p$ sensitivities. We observe that by augmenting the $\ell_p$ sensitivities by $\ell_2$ sensitivities, we obtain better bounds improving over the aforementioned results to optimal linear $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}(\mathfrak S+d)) = \tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}d)$ sampling complexity for all $p \in [1,2]$. In particular, this resolves an open question of Woodruff & Yasuda (2023c) in the affirmative for $p \in [1,2]$ and brings sensitivity subsampling into the regime that was previously only known to be possible using Lewis weights (Cohen & Peng, 2015). As an application of our main result, we also obtain an $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}\mu d)$ sensitivity sampling bound for logistic regression, where $\mu$ is a natural complexity measure for this problem. This improves over the previous $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-2}\mu^2 d)$ bound of Mai et al. (2021) which was based on Lewis weights subsampling.

The turnstile data stream model offers the most flexible framework where data can be manipulated dynamically, i.e., rows, columns, and even single entries of an input matrix can be added, deleted, or updated multiple times in a data stream. We develop a novel algorithm for sampling rows $a_i$ of a matrix $A\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, proportional to their $\ell_p$ norm, when $A$ is presented in a turnstile data stream. Our algorithm not only returns the set of sampled row indexes, it also returns slightly perturbed rows $\tilde{a}_i \approx a_i$, and approximates their sampling probabilities up to $\varepsilon$ relative error. When combined with preconditioning techniques, our algorithm extends to $\ell_p$ leverage score sampling over turnstile data streams. With these properties in place, it allows us to simulate subsampling constructions of coresets for important regression problems to operate over turnstile data streams with very little overhead compared to their respective off-line subsampling algorithms. For logistic regression, our framework yields the first algorithm that achieves a $(1+\varepsilon)$ approximation and works in a turnstile data stream using polynomial sketch/subsample size, improving over $O(1)$ approximations, or $\exp(1/\varepsilon)$ sketch size of previous work. We compare experimentally to plain oblivious sketching and plain leverage score sampling algorithms for $\ell_p$ and logistic regression.

The global sports analytics industry has a market value of USD 3.78 billion in 2023. The increase of wearables such as GPS sensors has provided analysts with large fine-grained datasets detailing player performance. Traditional analysis of this data focuses on individual athletes with measures of internal and external loading such as distance covered in speed zones or rate of perceived exertion. However these metrics do not provide enough information to understand team dynamics within field sports. The spatio-temporal nature of match play necessitates an investment in date-engineering to adequately transform the data into a suitable format to extract features such as areas of activity. In this paper we present an approach to construct Time-Window Spatial Activity Graphs (TWGs) for field sports. Using GPS data obtained from Gaelic Football matches we demonstrate how our approach can be utilised to extract spatio-temporal features from GPS sensor data

Advancements in neural engineering have enabled the development of Robotic Prosthetic Hands (RPHs) aimed at restoring hand functionality. Current commercial RPHs offer limited control through basic on/off commands. Recent progresses in machine learning enable finger movement decoding with higher degrees of freedom, yet the high computational complexity of such models limits their application in portable devices. Future RPH designs must balance portability, low power consumption, and high decoding accuracy to be practical for individuals with disabilities. To this end, we introduce a novel attractor-based neural network to realize on-chip movement decoding for next-generation portable RPHs. The proposed architecture comprises an encoder, an attention layer, an attractor network, and a refinement regressor. We tested our model on four healthy subjects and achieved a decoding accuracy of 80.3%. Our proposed model is over 120 and 50 times more compact compared to state-of-the-art LSTM and CNN models, respectively, with comparable (or superior) decoding accuracy. Therefore, it exhibits minimal hardware complexity and can be effectively integrated as a System-on-Chip.

Within neuroimgaing studies it is a common practice to perform repetitions of trials in an experiment when working with a noisy class of data acquisition system, such as electroencephalography (EEG) or magnetoencephalography (MEG). While this approach can be useful in some experimental designs, it presents significant limitations for certain types of analyses, such as identifying the category of an object observed by a subject. In this study we demonstrate that when trials relating to a single object are allowed to appear in both the training and testing sets, almost any classification algorithm is capable of learning the representation of an object given only category labels. This ability to learn object representations is of particular significance as it suggests that the results of several published studies which predict the category of observed objects from EEG signals may be affected by a subtle form of leakage which has inflated their reported accuracies. We demonstrate the ability of both simple classification algorithms, and sophisticated deep learning models, to learn object representations given only category labels. We do this using two datasets; the Kaneshiro et al. (2015) dataset and the Gifford et al. (2022) dataset. Our results raise doubts about the true generalizability of several published models and suggests that the reported performance of these models may be significantly inflated.

Machine learning (ML) methods are having a huge impact across all of the sciences. However, ML has a strong ontology - in which only the data exist - and a strong epistemology - in which a model is considered good if it performs well on held-out training data. These philosophies are in strong conflict with both standard practices and key philosophies in the natural sciences. Here we identify some locations for ML in the natural sciences at which the ontology and epistemology are valuable. For example, when an expressive machine learning model is used in a causal inference to represent the effects of confounders, such as foregrounds, backgrounds, or instrument calibration parameters, the model capacity and loose philosophy of ML can make the results more trustworthy. We also show that there are contexts in which the introduction of ML introduces strong, unwanted statistical biases. For one, when ML models are used to emulate physical (or first-principles) simulations, they amplify confirmation biases. For another, when expressive regressions are used to label datasets, those labels cannot be used in downstream joint or ensemble analyses without taking on uncontrolled biases. The question in the title is being asked of all of the natural sciences; that is, we are calling on the scientific communities to take a step back and consider the role and value of ML in their fields; the (partial) answers we give here come from the particular perspective of physics.

Estimating potential outcomes for treatments over time based on observational data is important for personalized decision-making in medicine. Yet, existing neural methods for this task suffer from either (a) bias or (b) large variance. In order to address both limitations, we introduce the G-transformer (GT). Our GT is a novel, neural end-to-end model designed for unbiased, low-variance estimation of conditional average potential outcomes (CAPOs) over time. Specifically, our GT is the first neural model to perform regression-based iterative G-computation for CAPOs in the time-varying setting. We evaluate the effectiveness of our GT across various experiments. In sum, this work represents a significant step towards personalized decision-making from electronic health records.

Explainability is often critical to the acceptable implementation of artificial intelligence (AI). Nowhere is this more important than healthcare where decision-making directly impacts patients and trust in AI systems is essential. This trust is often built on the explanations and interpretations the AI provides. Despite significant advancements in AI interpretability, there remains the need for clear guidelines on when and to what extent explanations are necessary in the medical context. We propose a novel categorization system with four distinct classes of explanation necessity, guiding the level of explanation required: patient or sample (local) level, cohort or dataset (global) level, or both levels. We introduce a mathematical formulation that distinguishes these categories and offers a practical framework for researchers to determine the necessity and depth of explanations required in medical AI applications. Three key factors are considered: the robustness of the evaluation protocol, the variability of expert observations, and the representation dimensionality of the application. In this perspective, we address the question: When does an AI medical application need to be explained, and at what level of detail?

This article presents the Sorting Composite Quantile Regression Neural Network (SCQRNN), an advanced quantile regression model designed to prevent quantile crossing and enhance computational efficiency. Integrating ad hoc sorting in training, the SCQRNN ensures non-intersecting quantiles, boosting model reliability and interpretability. We demonstrate that the SCQRNN not only prevents quantile crossing and reduces computational complexity but also achieves faster convergence than traditional models. This advancement meets the requirements of high-performance computing for sustainable, accurate computation. In organic computing, the SCQRNN enhances self-aware systems with predictive uncertainties, enriching applications across finance, meteorology, climate science, and engineering.