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 Statistical Learning


Diffusion-DICE: In-Sample Diffusion Guidance for Offline Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One important property of DIstribution Correction Estimation (DICE) methods is that the solution is the optimal stationary distribution ratio between the optimized and data collection policy. In this work, we show that DICE-based methods can be viewed as a transformation from the behavior distribution to the optimal policy distribution. Based on this, we propose a novel approach, Diffusion-DICE, that directly performs this transformation using diffusion models. We find that the optimal policy's score function can be decomposed into two terms: the behavior policy's score function and the gradient of a guidance term which depends on the optimal distribution ratio. The first term can be obtained from a diffusion model trained on the dataset and we propose an in-sample learning objective to learn the second term. Due to the multi-modality contained in the optimal policy distribution, the transformation in Diffusion-DICE may guide towards those local-optimal modes. We thus generate a few candidate actions and carefully select from them to approach global-optimum. Different from all other diffusion-based offline RL methods, the guide-then-select paradigm in Diffusion-DICE only uses in-sample actions for training and brings minimal error exploitation in the value function. We use a didatic toycase example to show how previous diffusion-based methods fail to generate optimal actions due to leveraging these errors and how Diffusion-DICE successfully avoids that. We then conduct extensive experiments on benchmark datasets to show the strong performance of Diffusion-DICE.


Introducing {\delta}-XAI: a novel sensitivity-based method for local AI explanations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) is central to the debate on integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms into clinical practice. High-performing AI/ML models, such as ensemble learners and deep neural networks, often lack interpretability, hampering clinicians' trust in their predictions. To address this, XAI techniques are being developed to describe AI/ML predictions in human-understandable terms. One promising direction is the adaptation of sensitivity analysis (SA) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which inherently rank model inputs by their impact on predictions. Here, we introduce a novel delta-XAI method that provides local explanations of ML model predictions by extending the delta index, a GSA metric. The delta-XAI index assesses the impact of each feature's value on the predicted output for individual instances in both regression and classification problems. We formalize the delta-XAI index and provide code for its implementation. The delta-XAI method was evaluated on simulated scenarios using linear regression models, with Shapley values serving as a benchmark. Results showed that the delta-XAI index is generally consistent with Shapley values, with notable discrepancies in models with highly impactful or extreme feature values. The delta-XAI index demonstrated higher sensitivity in detecting dominant features and handling extreme feature values. Qualitatively, the delta-XAI provides intuitive explanations by leveraging probability density functions, making feature rankings clearer and more explainable for practitioners. Overall, the delta-XAI method appears promising for robustly obtaining local explanations of ML model predictions. Further investigations in real-world clinical settings will be conducted to evaluate its impact on AI-assisted clinical workflows.


Denoising ESG: quantifying data uncertainty from missing data with Machine Learning and prediction intervals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) datasets are frequently plagued by significant data gaps, leading to inconsistencies in ESG ratings due to varying imputation methods. This study addresses the missing data issues in ESG datasets using machine learning techniques, comparing K-Nearest Neighbors, Gradient Boosting, Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) and Neural Networks. We focus on quantifying the risk induced by data anomalies and provide tools to assess the impacts of this risk on the variability of the scores. By introducing prediction uncertainty using methods such as Predictive Mean Matching and Local Residual Draw, in order to assign confidence measures to individual predictions, we provide a nuanced understanding of prediction uncertainty. Empirical analyses show that these methods improve imputation accuracy and quantify uncertainty, which is required for reliable ESG scoring in banking and finance.


Online Multi-Source Domain Adaptation through Gaussian Mixtures and Dataset Dictionary Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hence, incremental DA is a good candidate to enhance the performance of automatic fault diagnosis systems. This paper addresses the challenge of online multi-source In the context of DA, a prominent framework is Optimal domain adaptation (MSDA) in transfer learning, a scenario Transport (OT) [4, 5], which is a mathematical theory where one needs to adapt multiple, heterogeneous source concerned with the displacement of mass at least effort. In domains towards a target domain that comes in a stream. We this paper, we are particularly interested in the Dataset Dictionary introduce a novel approach for the online fit of a Gaussian Learning (DaDiL) framework proposed by [6], especially Mixture Model (GMM), based on the Wasserstein geometry its Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) formulation [7], of Gaussian measures. We build upon this method and recent which learns to interpolate probability measures in a Wasserstein developments in dataset dictionary learning for proposing a space through dictionary learning.


BEExAI: Benchmark to Evaluate Explainable AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research in explainability has given rise to numerous post-hoc attribution methods aimed at enhancing our comprehension of the outputs of black-box machine learning models. However, evaluating the quality of explanations lacks a cohesive approach and a consensus on the methodology for deriving quantitative metrics that gauge the efficacy of explainability post-hoc attribution methods. Furthermore, with the development of increasingly complex deep learning models for diverse data applications, the need for a reliable way of measuring the quality and correctness of explanations is becoming critical. We address this by proposing BEExAI, a benchmark tool that allows large-scale comparison of different post-hoc XAI methods, employing a set of selected evaluation metrics.


Aircraft Trajectory Segmentation-based Contrastive Coding: A Framework for Self-supervised Trajectory Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Air traffic trajectory recognition has gained significant interest within the air traffic management community, particularly for fundamental tasks such as classification and clustering. This paper introduces Aircraft Trajectory Segmentation-based Contrastive Coding (ATSCC), a novel self-supervised time series representation learning framework designed to capture semantic information in air traffic trajectory data. The framework leverages the segmentable characteristic of trajectories and ensures consistency within the self-assigned segments. Intensive experiments were conducted on datasets from three different airports, totaling four datasets, comparing the learned representation's performance of downstream classification and clustering with other state-of-the-art representation learning techniques. The results show that ATSCC outperforms these methods by aligning with the labels defined by aeronautical procedures. ATSCC is adaptable to various airport configurations and scalable to incomplete trajectories. This research has expanded upon existing capabilities, achieving these improvements independently without predefined inputs such as airport configurations, maneuvering procedures, or labeled data.


Urban Traffic Accident Risk Prediction Revisited: Regionality, Proximity, Similarity and Sparsity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic accidents pose a significant risk to human health and property safety. Therefore, to prevent traffic accidents, predicting their risks has garnered growing interest. We argue that a desired prediction solution should demonstrate resilience to the complexity of traffic accidents. In particular, it should adequately consider the regional background, accurately capture both spatial proximity and semantic similarity, and effectively address the sparsity of traffic accidents. However, these factors are often overlooked or difficult to incorporate. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-granularity hierarchical spatio-temporal network. Initially, we innovate by incorporating remote sensing data, facilitating the creation of hierarchical multi-granularity structure and the comprehension of regional background. We construct multiple high-level risk prediction tasks to enhance model's ability to cope with sparsity. Subsequently, to capture both spatial proximity and semantic similarity, region feature and multi-view graph undergo encoding processes to distill effective representations. Additionally, we propose message passing and adaptive temporal attention module that bridges different granularities and dynamically captures time correlations inherent in traffic accident patterns. At last, a multivariate hierarchical loss function is devised considering the complexity of the prediction purpose. Extensive experiments on two real datasets verify the superiority of our model against the state-of-the-art methods.


High-Dimensional Fault Tolerance Testing of Highly Automated Vehicles Based on Low-Rank Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring fault tolerance of Highly Automated Vehicles (HAVs) is crucial for their safety due to the presence of potentially severe faults. Hence, Fault Injection (FI) testing is conducted by practitioners to evaluate the safety level of HAVs. To fully cover test cases, various driving scenarios and fault settings should be considered. However, due to numerous combinations of test scenarios and fault settings, the testing space can be complex and high-dimensional. In addition, evaluating performance in all newly added scenarios is resource-consuming. The rarity of critical faults that can cause security problems further strengthens the challenge. To address these challenges, we propose to accelerate FI testing under the low-rank Smoothness Regularized Matrix Factorization (SRMF) framework. We first organize the sparse evaluated data into a structured matrix based on its safety values. Then the untested values are estimated by the correlation captured by the matrix structure. To address high dimensionality, a low-rank constraint is imposed on the testing space. To exploit the relationships between existing scenarios and new scenarios and capture the local regularity of critical faults, three types of smoothness regularization are further designed as a complement. We conduct experiments on car following and cut in scenarios. The results indicate that SRMF has the lowest prediction error in various scenarios and is capable of predicting rare critical faults compared to other machine learning models. In addition, SRMF can achieve 1171 acceleration rate, 99.3% precision and 91.1% F1 score in identifying critical faults. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to introduce low-rank models to FI testing of HAVs.


Appformer: A Novel Framework for Mobile App Usage Prediction Leveraging Progressive Multi-Modal Data Fusion and Feature Extraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article presents Appformer, a novel mobile application prediction framework inspired by the efficiency of Transformer-like architectures in processing sequential data through self-attention mechanisms. Combining a Multi-Modal Data Progressive Fusion Module with a sophisticated Feature Extraction Module, Appformer leverages the synergies of multi-modal data fusion and data mining techniques while maintaining user privacy. The framework employs Points of Interest (POIs) associated with base stations, optimizing them through comprehensive comparative experiments to identify the most effective clustering method. These refined inputs are seamlessly integrated into the initial phases of cross-modal data fusion, where temporal units are encoded via word embeddings and subsequently merged in later stages. The Feature Extraction Module, employing Transformer-like architectures specialized for time series analysis, adeptly distils comprehensive features. It meticulously fine-tunes the outputs from the fusion module, facilitating the extraction of high-calibre, multi-modal features, thus guaranteeing a robust and efficient extraction process. Extensive experimental validation confirms Appformer's effectiveness, attaining state-of-the-art (SOTA) metrics in mobile app usage prediction, thereby signifying a notable progression in this field.


A Generic Review of Integrating Artificial Intelligence in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) is a well-established intervention for mitigating psychological issues by modifying maladaptive cognitive and behavioral patterns. However, delivery of CBT is often constrained by resource limitations and barriers to access. Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have provided technical support for the digital transformation of CBT. Particularly, the emergence of pre-training models (PTMs) and large language models (LLMs) holds immense potential to support, augment, optimize and automate CBT delivery. This paper reviews the literature on integrating AI into CBT interventions. We begin with an overview of CBT. Then, we introduce the integration of AI into CBT across various stages: pre-treatment, therapeutic process, and post-treatment. Next, we summarized the datasets relevant to some CBT-related tasks. Finally, we discuss the benefits and current limitations of applying AI to CBT. We suggest key areas for future research, highlighting the need for further exploration and validation of the long-term efficacy and clinical utility of AI-enhanced CBT. The transformative potential of AI in reshaping the practice of CBT heralds a new era of more accessible, efficient, and personalized mental health interventions.