Statistical Learning
MiWaves Reinforcement Learning Algorithm
Ghosh, Susobhan, Guo, Yongyi, Hung, Pei-Yao, Coughlin, Lara, Bonar, Erin, Nahum-Shani, Inbal, Walton, Maureen, Murphy, Susan
The escalating prevalence of cannabis use poses a significant public health challenge globally. In the U.S., cannabis use is more prevalent among emerging adults (EAs) (ages 18-25) than any other age group, with legalization in the multiple states contributing to a public perception that cannabis is less risky than in prior decades. To address this growing concern, we developed MiWaves, a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm designed to optimize the delivery of personalized intervention prompts to reduce cannabis use among EAs. MiWaves leverages domain expertise and prior data to tailor the likelihood of delivery of intervention messages. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the algorithm's design, including key decisions and experimental outcomes. The finalized MiWaves RL algorithm was deployed in a clinical trial from March to May 2024.
RGDA-DDI: Residual graph attention network and dual-attention based framework for drug-drug interaction prediction
Zhou, Changjian, Zhang, Xin, Li, Jiafeng, Song, Jia, Xiang, Wensheng
Recent studies suggest that drug-drug interaction (DDI) prediction via computational approaches has significant importance for understanding the functions and co-prescriptions of multiple drugs. However, the existing silico DDI prediction methods either ignore the potential interactions among drug-drug pairs (DDPs), or fail to explicitly model and fuse the multi-scale drug feature representations for better prediction. In this study, we propose RGDA-DDI, a residual graph attention network (residual-GAT) and dual-attention based framework for drug-drug interaction prediction. A residual-GAT module is introduced to simultaneously learn multi-scale feature representations from drugs and DDPs. In addition, a dual-attention based feature fusion block is constructed to learn local joint interaction representations. A series of evaluation metrics demonstrate that the RGDA-DDI significantly improved DDI prediction performance on two public benchmark datasets, which provides a new insight into drug development.
Self-supervised Topic Taxonomy Discovery in the Box Embedding Space
Lu, Yuyin, Chen, Hegang, Mao, Pengbo, Rao, Yanghui, Xie, Haoran, Wang, Fu Lee, Li, Qing
Topic taxonomy discovery aims at uncovering topics of different abstraction levels and constructing hierarchical relations between them. Unfortunately, most of prior work can hardly model semantic scopes of words and topics by holding the Euclidean embedding space assumption. What's worse, they infer asymmetric hierarchical relations by symmetric distances between topic embeddings. As a result, existing methods suffer from problems of low-quality topics at high abstraction levels and inaccurate hierarchical relations. To alleviate these problems, this paper develops a Box embedding-based Topic Model (BoxTM) that maps words and topics into the box embedding space, where the asymmetric metric is defined to properly infer hierarchical relations among topics. Additionally, our BoxTM explicitly infers upper-level topics based on correlation between specific topics through recursive clustering on topic boxes. Finally, extensive experiments validate high-quality of the topic taxonomy learned by BoxTM.
Unsupervised discovery of the shared and private geometry in multi-view data
Koukuntla, Sai, Julian, Joshua B., Kaminsky, Jesse C., Schottdorf, Manuel, Tank, David W., Brody, Carlos D., Charles, Adam S.
Modern applications often leverage multiple views of a subject of study. Within neuroscience, there is growing interest in large-scale simultaneous recordings across multiple brain regions. Understanding the relationship between views (e.g., the neural activity in each region recorded) can reveal fundamental principles about the characteristics of each representation and about the system. However, existing methods to characterize such relationships either lack the expressivity required to capture complex nonlinearities, describe only sources of variance that are shared between views, or discard geometric information that is crucial to interpreting the data. Here, we develop a nonlinear neural network-based method that, given paired samples of high-dimensional views, disentangles low-dimensional shared and private latent variables underlying these views while preserving intrinsic data geometry. Across multiple simulated and real datasets, we demonstrate that our method outperforms competing methods. Using simulated populations of lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and V1 neurons we demonstrate our model's ability to discover interpretable shared and private structure across different noise conditions. On a dataset of unrotated and corresponding but randomly rotated MNIST digits, we recover private latents for the rotated view that encode rotation angle regardless of digit class, and places the angle representation on a 1-d manifold, while shared latents encode digit class but not rotation angle. Applying our method to simultaneous Neuropixels recordings of hippocampus and prefrontal cortex while mice run on a linear track, we discover a low-dimensional shared latent space that encodes the animal's position. We propose our approach as a general-purpose method for finding succinct and interpretable descriptions of paired data sets in terms of disentangled shared and private latent variables.
Adversarial Attacks and Defenses in Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting for Smart and Connected Infrastructures
Krishan, Pooja, Mohapatra, Rohan, Sengupta, Saptarshi
The emergence of deep learning models has revolutionized various industries over the last decade, leading to a surge in connected devices and infrastructures. However, these models can be tricked into making incorrect predictions with high confidence, leading to disastrous failures and security concerns. To this end, we explore the impact of adversarial attacks on multivariate time-series forecasting and investigate methods to counter them. Specifically, we employ untargeted white-box attacks, namely the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and the Basic Iterative Method (BIM), to poison the inputs to the training process, effectively misleading the model. We also illustrate the subtle modifications to the inputs after the attack, which makes detecting the attack using the naked eye quite difficult. Having demonstrated the feasibility of these attacks, we develop robust models through adversarial training and model hardening. We are among the first to showcase the transferability of these attacks and defenses by extrapolating our work from the benchmark electricity data to a larger, 10-year real-world data used for predicting the time-to-failure of hard disks. Our experimental results confirm that the attacks and defenses achieve the desired security thresholds, leading to a 72.41% and 94.81% decrease in RMSE for the electricity and hard disk datasets respectively after implementing the adversarial defenses.
Brain-inspired Artificial Intelligence: A Comprehensive Review
Current artificial intelligence (AI) models often focus on enhancing performance through meticulous parameter tuning and optimization techniques. However, the fundamental design principles behind these models receive comparatively less attention, which can limit our understanding of their potential and constraints. This comprehensive review explores the diverse design inspirations that have shaped modern AI models, i.e., brain-inspired artificial intelligence (BIAI). We present a classification framework that categorizes BIAI approaches into physical structure-inspired and human behavior-inspired models. We also examine the real-world applications where different BIAI models excel, highlighting their practical benefits and deployment challenges. By delving into these areas, we provide new insights and propose future research directions to drive innovation and address current gaps in the field. This review offers researchers and practitioners a comprehensive overview of the BIAI landscape, helping them harness its potential and expedite advancements in AI development.
Optimal level set estimation for non-parametric tournament and crowdsourcing problems
Graf, Maximilian, Carpentier, Alexandra, Verzelen, Nicolas
Motivated by crowdsourcing, we consider a problem where we partially observe the correctness of the answers of $n$ experts on $d$ questions. In this paper, we assume that both the experts and the questions can be ordered, namely that the matrix $M$ containing the probability that expert $i$ answers correctly to question $j$ is bi-isotonic up to a permutation of it rows and columns. When $n=d$, this also encompasses the strongly stochastic transitive (SST) model from the tournament literature. Here, we focus on the relevant problem of deciphering small entries of $M$ from large entries of $M$, which is key in crowdsourcing for efficient allocation of workers to questions. More precisely, we aim at recovering a (or several) level set $p$ of the matrix up to a precision $h$, namely recovering resp. the sets of positions $(i,j)$ in $M$ such that $M_{ij}>p+h$ and $M_{i,j}
A Statistical Framework for Data-dependent Retrieval-Augmented Models
Basu, Soumya, Rawat, Ankit Singh, Zaheer, Manzil
Modern ML systems increasingly augment input instances with additional relevant information to enhance final prediction. Despite growing interest in such retrieval-augmented models, their fundamental properties and training are not well understood. We propose a statistical framework to study such models with two components: 1) a {\em retriever} to identify the relevant information out of a large corpus via a data-dependent metric; and 2) a {\em predictor} that consumes the input instances along with the retrieved information to make the final predictions. We present a principled method for end-to-end training of both components and draw connections with various training approaches in the literature. Furthermore, we establish excess risk bounds for retrieval-augmented models while delineating the contributions of both retriever and predictor towards the model performance. We validate the utility of our proposed training methods along with the key takeaways from our statistical analysis on open domain question answering task where retrieval augmentation is important.
A Comprehensive Benchmark of Machine and Deep Learning Across Diverse Tabular Datasets
Shmuel, Assaf, Glickman, Oren, Lazebnik, Teddy
The analysis of tabular datasets is highly prevalent both in scientific research and real-world applications of Machine Learning (ML). Unlike many other ML tasks, Deep Learning (DL) models often do not outperform traditional methods in this area. Previous comparative benchmarks have shown that DL performance is frequently equivalent or even inferior to models such as Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs). In this study, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark aimed at better characterizing the types of datasets where DL models excel. Although several important benchmarks for tabular datasets already exist, our contribution lies in the variety and depth of our comparison: we evaluate 111 datasets with 20 different models, including both regression and classification tasks. These datasets vary in scale and include both those with and without categorical variables. Importantly, our benchmark contains a sufficient number of datasets where DL models perform best, allowing for a thorough analysis of the conditions under which DL models excel. Building on the results of this benchmark, we train a model that predicts scenarios where DL models outperform alternative methods with 86.1% accuracy (AUC 0.78). We present insights derived from this characterization and compare these findings to previous benchmarks.
Ensemble Prediction via Covariate-dependent Stacking
Wakayama, Tomoya, Sugasawa, Shonosuke
This study proposes a novel approach to ensemble prediction, called ``covariate-dependent stacking'' (CDST). Unlike traditional stacking methods, CDST allows model weights to vary flexibly as a function of covariates, thereby enhancing predictive performance in complex scenarios. We formulate the covariate-dependent weights through combinations of basis functions, estimate them by optimizing cross-validation, and develop an expectation-maximization algorithm, ensuring computational efficiency. To analyze the theoretical properties, we establish an oracle inequality regarding the expected loss to be minimized for estimating model weights. Through comprehensive simulation studies and an application to large-scale land price prediction, we demonstrate that the CDST consistently outperforms conventional model averaging methods, particularly on datasets where some models fail to capture the underlying complexity. Our findings suggest that the CDST is especially valuable for, but not limited to, spatio-temporal prediction problems, offering a powerful tool for researchers and practitioners in various data analysis fields.