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 Statistical Learning


Graph Learning for Planning: The Story Thus Far and Open Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph learning is naturally well suited for use in planning due to its ability to exploit relational structures exhibited in planning domains and to take as input planning instances with arbitrary number of objects. In this paper, we study the usage of graph learning for planning thus far by studying the theoretical and empirical effects on learning and planning performance of (1) graph representations of planning tasks, (2) graph learning architectures, and (3) optimisation formulations for learning. Our studies accumulate in the GOOSE framework which learns domain knowledge from small planning tasks in order to scale up to much larger planning tasks. In this paper, we also highlight and propose the 5 open challenges in the general Learning for Planning field that we believe need to be addressed for advancing the state-of-the-art.


Predicting the Impact of Scope Changes on Project Cost and Schedule Using Machine Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Model robustness and generalization are assessed using cross-validation techniques. To evaluate the performance of models, we use Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R2. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The study identifies the most influential project attributes in determining the magnitude of cost and schedule deviations caused by scope modifications. It is identified that productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are powerful predictors.


FGATT: A Robust Framework for Wireless Data Imputation Using Fuzzy Graph Attention Networks and Transformer Encoders

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Missing data is a pervasive challenge in wireless networks and many other domains, often compromising the performance of machine learning and deep learning models. To address this, we propose a novel framework, FGATT, that combines the Fuzzy Graph Attention Network (FGAT) with the Transformer encoder to perform robust and accurate data imputation. FGAT leverages fuzzy rough sets and graph attention mechanisms to capture spatial dependencies dynamically, even in scenarios where predefined spatial information is unavailable. The Transformer encoder is employed to model temporal dependencies, utilizing its self-attention mechanism to focus on significant time-series patterns. A self-adaptive graph construction method is introduced to enable dynamic connectivity learning, ensuring the framework's applicability to a wide range of wireless datasets. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in imputation accuracy and robustness, particularly in scenarios with substantial missing data. The proposed model is well-suited for applications in wireless sensor networks and IoT environments, where data integrity is critical.


EsurvFusion: An evidential multimodal survival fusion model based on Gaussian random fuzzy numbers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal survival analysis aims to combine heterogeneous data sources (e.g., clinical, imaging, text, genomics) to improve the prediction quality of survival outcomes. However, this task is particularly challenging due to high heterogeneity and noise across data sources, which vary in structure, distribution, and context. Additionally, the ground truth is often censored (uncertain) due to incomplete follow-up data. In this paper, we propose a novel evidential multimodal survival fusion model, EsurvFusion, designed to combine multimodal data at the decision level through an evidence-based decision fusion layer that jointly addresses both data and model uncertainty while incorporating modality-level reliability. Specifically, EsurvFusion first models unimodal data with newly introduced Gaussian random fuzzy numbers, producing unimodal survival predictions along with corresponding aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. It then estimates modality-level reliability through a reliability discounting layer to correct the misleading impact of noisy data modalities. Finally, a multimodal evidence-based fusion layer is introduced to combine the discounted predictions to form a unified, interpretable multimodal survival analysis model, revealing each modality's influence based on the learned reliability coefficients. This is the first work that studies multimodal survival analysis with both uncertainty and reliability. Extensive experiments on four multimodal survival datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in handling high heterogeneity data, establishing new state-of-the-art on several benchmarks.


Cross-Task Inconsistency Based Active Learning (CTIAL) for Emotion Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Emotion recognition is a critical component of affective computing. Training accurate machine learning models for emotion recognition typically requires a large amount of labeled data. Due to the subtleness and complexity of emotions, multiple evaluators are usually needed for each affective sample to obtain its ground-truth label, which is expensive. To save the labeling cost, this paper proposes an inconsistency-based active learning approach for cross-task transfer between emotion classification and estimation. Affective norms are utilized as prior knowledge to connect the label spaces of categorical and dimensional emotions. Then, the prediction inconsistency on the two tasks for the unlabeled samples is used to guide sample selection in active learning for the target task. Experiments on within-corpus and cross-corpus transfers demonstrated that cross-task inconsistency could be a very valuable metric in active learning. To our knowledge, this is the first work that utilizes prior knowledge on affective norms and data in a different task to facilitate active learning for a new task, even the two tasks are from different datasets.


HumekaFL: Automated Detection of Neonatal Asphyxia Using Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Birth Apshyxia (BA) is a severe condition characterized by insufficient supply of oxygen to a newborn during the delivery. BA is one of the primary causes of neonatal death in the world. Although there has been a decline in neonatal deaths over the past two decades, the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, continues to experience the highest under-five (<5) mortality rates. While evidence-based methods are commonly used to detect BA in African healthcare settings, they can be subject to physician errors or delays in diagnosis, preventing timely interventions. Centralized Machine Learning (ML) methods demonstrated good performance in early detection of BA but require sensitive health data to leave their premises before training, which does not guarantee privacy and security. Healthcare institutions are therefore reluctant to adopt such solutions in Africa. To address this challenge, we suggest a federated learning (FL)-based software architecture, a distributed learning method that prioritizes privacy and security by design. We have developed a user-friendly and cost-effective mobile application embedding the FL pipeline for early detection of BA. Our Federated SVM model outperformed centralized SVM pipelines and Neural Networks (NN)-based methods in the existing literature


R.I.P.: A Simple Black-box Attack on Continual Test-time Adaptation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a promising solution to tackle the continual domain shift in machine learning by allowing model parameters to change at test time, via self-supervised learning on unlabeled testing data. At the same time, it unfortunately opens the door to unforeseen vulnerabilities for degradation over time. Through a simple theoretical continual TTA model, we successfully identify a risk in the sampling process of testing data that could easily degrade the performance of a continual TTA model. We name this risk as Reusing of Incorrect Prediction (RIP) that TTA attackers can employ or as a result of the unintended query from general TTA users. The risk posed by RIP is also highly realistic, as it does not require prior knowledge of model parameters or modification of testing samples. This simple requirement makes RIP as the first black-box TTA attack algorithm that stands out from existing white-box attempts. We extensively benchmark the performance of the most recent continual TTA approaches when facing the RIP attack, providing insights on its success, and laying out potential roadmaps that could enhance the resilience of future continual TTA systems.


Understanding Generalizability of Diffusion Models Requires Rethinking the Hidden Gaussian Structure

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we study the generalizability of diffusion models by looking into the hidden properties of the learned score functions, which are essentially a series of deep denoisers trained on various noise levels. We observe that as diffusion models transition from memorization to generalization, their corresponding nonlinear diffusion denoisers exhibit increasing linearity. This discovery leads us to investigate the linear counterparts of the nonlinear diffusion models, which are a series of linear models trained to match the function mappings of the nonlinear diffusion denoisers. Interestingly, these linear denoisers are nearly optimal for multivariate Gaussian distributions defined by the empirical mean and covariance of the training dataset, and they effectively approximate the behavior of nonlinear diffusion models. This finding implies that diffusion models have the inductive bias towards capturing and utilizing the Gaussian structure (covariance information) of the training dataset for data generation. We empirically demonstrate that this inductive bias is a unique property of diffusion models in the generalization regime, which becomes increasingly evident when the model's capacity is relatively small compared to the training dataset size. In the case where the model is highly overparameterized, this inductive bias emerges during the initial training phases before the model fully memorizes its training data. Our study provides crucial insights into understanding the notable strong generalization phenomenon recently observed in real-world diffusion models.


AERO: Softmax-Only LLMs for Efficient Private Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The pervasiveness of proprietary language models has raised privacy concerns for users' sensitive data, emphasizing the need for private inference (PI), where inference is performed directly on encrypted inputs. However, current PI methods face prohibitively higher communication and latency overheads, primarily due to nonlinear operations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis to understand the role of nonlinearities in transformer-based decoder-only language models. We introduce AERO, a four-step architectural optimization framework that refines the existing LLM architecture for efficient PI by systematically removing nonlinearities such as LayerNorm and GELU and reducing FLOPs counts. For the first time, we propose a Softmax-only architecture with significantly fewer FLOPs tailored for efficient PI. Furthermore, we devise a novel entropy regularization technique to improve the performance of Softmax-only models. AERO achieves up to 4.23$\times$ communication and 1.94$\times$ latency reduction. We validate the effectiveness of AERO by benchmarking it against the state-of-the-art.


Dynamic Estimation of Learning Rates Using a Non-Linear Autoregressive Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a new class of adaptive non-linear autoregressive (Nlar) models incorporating the concept of momentum, which dynamically estimate both the learning rates and momentum as the number of iterations increases. In our method, the growth of the gradients is controlled using a scaling (clipping) function, leading to stable convergence. Within this framework, we propose three distinct estimators for learning rates and provide theoretical proof of their convergence. We further demonstrate how these estimators underpin the development of effective Nlar optimizers. The performance of the proposed estimators and optimizers is rigorously evaluated through extensive experiments across several datasets and a reinforcement learning environment.