The success of precision medicine requires computational models that can effectively process and interpret diverse physiological signals across heterogeneous patient populations. While foundation models have demonstrated remarkable transfer capabilities across various domains, their effectiveness in handling individual-specific physiological signals - crucial for precision medicine - remains largely unexplored. This work introduces a systematic pipeline for rapidly and efficiently evaluating foundation models' transfer capabilities in medical contexts. Our pipeline employs a three-stage approach. First, it leverages physiological simulation software to generate diverse, clinically relevant scenarios, particularly focusing on data-scarce medical conditions. This simulation-based approach enables both targeted capability assessment and subsequent model fine-tuning. Second, the pipeline projects these simulated signals through the foundation model to obtain embeddings, which are then evaluated using linear methods. This evaluation quantifies the model's ability to capture three critical aspects: physiological feature independence, temporal dynamics preservation, and medical scenario differentiation. Finally, the pipeline validates these representations through specific downstream medical tasks. Initial testing of our pipeline on the Moirai time series foundation model revealed significant limitations in physiological signal processing, including feature entanglement, temporal dynamics distortion, and reduced scenario discrimination. These findings suggest that current foundation models may require substantial architectural modifications or targeted fine-tuning before deployment in clinical settings.

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) has received increasing research attention due to its capability to analyze and model complex dynamical systems. However, it faces challenges in computational efficiency, noise sensitivity, and difficulty adhering to physical laws, which negatively affect its performance. Addressing these issues, we present Online Physics-informed DMD (OPIDMD), a novel adaptation of DMD into a convex optimization framework. This approach not only ensures convergence to a unique global optimum, but also enhances the efficiency and accuracy of modeling dynamical systems in an online setting. Leveraging the Bayesian DMD framework, we propose a probabilistic interpretation of Physics-informed DMD (piDMD), examining the impact of physical constraints on the DMD linear operator. Further, we implement online proximal gradient descent and formulate specific algorithms to tackle problems with different physical constraints, enabling real-time solutions across various scenarios. Compared with existing algorithms such as Exact DMD, Online DMD, and piDMD, OPIDMD achieves the best prediction performance in short-term forecasting, e.g. an $R^2$ value of 0.991 for noisy Lorenz system. The proposed method employs a time-varying linear operator, offering a promising solution for the real-time simulation and control of complex dynamical systems.

Particle-based Bayesian inference methods by sampling from a partition-free target (posterior) distribution, e.g., Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), have attracted significant attention. We propose a path-guided particle-based sampling~(PGPS) method based on a novel Log-weighted Shrinkage (LwS) density path linking an initial distribution to the target distribution. We propose to utilize a Neural network to learn a vector field motivated by the Fokker-Planck equation of the designed density path. Particles, initiated from the initial distribution, evolve according to the ordinary differential equation defined by the vector field. The distribution of these particles is guided along a density path from the initial distribution to the target distribution. The proposed LwS density path allows for an efficient search of modes of the target distribution while canonical methods fail. We theoretically analyze the Wasserstein distance of the distribution of the PGPS-generated samples and the target distribution due to approximation and discretization errors. Practically, the proposed PGPS-LwS method demonstrates higher Bayesian inference accuracy and better calibration ability in experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world Bayesian learning tasks, compared to baselines, such as SVGD and Langevin dynamics, etc.

In the rapidly evolving financial sector, the accurate and timely interpretation of market news is essential for stakeholders needing to navigate unpredictable events. This paper introduces FANAL (Financial Activity News Alerting Language Modeling Framework), a specialized BERT-based framework engineered for real-time financial event detection and analysis, categorizing news into twelve distinct financial categories. FANAL leverages silver-labeled data processed through XGBoost and employs advanced fine-tuning techniques, alongside ORBERT (Odds Ratio BERT), a novel variant of BERT fine-tuned with ORPO (Odds Ratio Preference Optimization) for superior class-wise probability calibration and alignment with financial event relevance. We evaluate FANAL's performance against leading large language models, including GPT-4o, Llama-3.1 8B, and Phi-3, demonstrating its superior accuracy and cost efficiency. This framework sets a new standard for financial intelligence and responsiveness, significantly outstripping existing models in both performance and affordability.

Automated hyperparameter search in machine learning, especially for deep learning models, is typically formulated as a bilevel optimization problem, with hyperparameter values determined by the upper level and the model learning achieved by the lower-level problem. Most of the existing bilevel optimization solutions either assume the uniqueness of the optimal training model given hyperparameters or adopt an optimistic view when the non-uniqueness issue emerges. Potential model uncertainty may arise when training complex models with limited data, especially when the uniqueness assumption is violated. Thus, the suitability of the optimistic view underlying current bilevel hyperparameter optimization solutions is questionable. In this paper, we propose pessimistic bilevel hyperparameter optimization to assure appropriate outer-level hyperparameters to better generalize the inner-level learned models, by explicitly incorporating potential uncertainty of the inner-level solution set. To solve the resulting computationally challenging pessimistic bilevel optimization problem, we develop a novel relaxation-based approximation method. It derives pessimistic solutions with more robust prediction models. In our empirical studies of automated hyperparameter search for binary linear classifiers, pessimistic solutions have demonstrated better prediction performances than optimistic counterparts when we have limited training data or perturbed testing data, showing the necessity of considering pessimistic solutions besides existing optimistic ones.

Representation learning aims to extract meaningful lower-dimensional embeddings from data, known as representations. Despite its widespread application, there is no established definition of a ``good'' representation. Typically, the representation quality is evaluated based on its performance in downstream tasks such as clustering, de-noising, etc. However, this task-specific approach has a limitation where a representation that performs well for one task may not necessarily be effective for another. This highlights the need for a more agnostic formulation, which is the focus of our work. We propose a downstream-agnostic formulation: when inherent clusters exist in the data, the representations should be specific to each cluster. Under this idea, we develop a meta-algorithm that jointly learns cluster-specific representations and cluster assignments. As our approach is easy to integrate with any representation learning framework, we demonstrate its effectiveness in various setups, including Autoencoders, Variational Autoencoders, Contrastive learning models, and Restricted Boltzmann Machines. We qualitatively compare our cluster-specific embeddings to standard embeddings and downstream tasks such as de-noising and clustering. While our method slightly increases runtime and parameters compared to the standard model, the experiments clearly show that it extracts the inherent cluster structures in the data, resulting in improved performance in relevant applications.

This paper proposes \emph{Episodic and Lifelong Exploration via Maximum ENTropy} (ELEMENT), a novel, multiscale, intrinsically motivated reinforcement learning (RL) framework that is able to explore environments without using any extrinsic reward and transfer effectively the learned skills to downstream tasks. We advance the state of the art in three ways. First, we propose a multiscale entropy optimization to take care of the fact that previous maximum state entropy, for lifelong exploration with millions of state observations, suffers from vanishing rewards and becomes very expensive computationally across iterations. Therefore, we add an episodic maximum entropy over each episode to speedup the search further. Second, we propose a novel intrinsic reward for episodic entropy maximization named \emph{average episodic state entropy} which provides the optimal solution for a theoretical upper bound of the episodic state entropy objective. Third, to speed the lifelong entropy maximization, we propose a $k$ nearest neighbors ($k$NN) graph to organize the estimation of the entropy and updating processes that reduces the computation substantially. Our ELEMENT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art intrinsic rewards in both episodic and lifelong setups. Moreover, it can be exploited in task-agnostic pre-training, collecting data for offline reinforcement learning, etc.

Predicting pedestrian crossing behavior is important for intelligent traffic systems to avoid pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Most existing pedestrian crossing behavior models are trained and evaluated on datasets collected from a single country, overlooking differences between countries. To address this gap, we compared pedestrian road-crossing behavior at unsignalized crossings in Germany and Japan. We presented four types of machine learning models to predict gap selection behavior, zebra crossing usage, and their trajectories using simulator data collected from both countries. When comparing the differences between countries, pedestrians from the study conducted in Japan are more cautious, selecting larger gaps compared to those in Germany. We evaluate and analyze model transferability. Our results show that neural networks outperform other machine learning models in predicting gap selection and zebra crossing usage, while random forest models perform best on trajectory prediction tasks, demonstrating strong performance and transferability. We develop a transferable model using an unsupervised clustering method, which improves prediction accuracy for gap selection and trajectory prediction. These findings provide a deeper understanding of pedestrian crossing behaviors in different countries and offer valuable insights into model transferability.

Network interference has garnered significant interest in the field of causal inference. It reflects diverse sociological behaviors, wherein the treatment assigned to one individual within a network may influence the outcome of other individuals, such as their neighbors. To estimate the causal effect, one classical way is to randomly assign experimental candidates into different groups and compare their differences. However, in the context of sequential experiments, such treatment assignment may result in a large regret. In this paper, we develop a unified interference-based online experimental design framework. Compared to existing literature, we expand the definition of arm space by leveraging the statistical concept of exposure mapping. Importantly, we establish the Pareto-optimal trade-off between the estimation accuracy and regret with respect to both time period and arm space, which remains superior to the baseline even in the absence of network interference. We further propose an algorithmic implementation and model generalization.

Spatiotemporal dynamics pervade the natural sciences, from the morphogen dynamics underlying patterning in animal pigmentation to the protein waves controlling cell division. A central challenge lies in understanding how controllable parameters induce qualitative changes in system behavior called bifurcations. This endeavor is made particularly difficult in realistic settings where governing partial differential equations (PDEs) are unknown and data is limited and noisy. To address this challenge, we propose TRENDy (Temporal Regression of Effective Nonlinear Dynamics), an equation-free approach to learning low-dimensional, predictive models of spatiotemporal dynamics. Following classical work in spatial coarse-graining, TRENDy first maps input data to a low-dimensional space of effective dynamics via a cascade of multiscale filtering operations. Our key insight is the recognition that these effective dynamics can be fit by a neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) having the same parameter space as the input PDE. The preceding filtering operations strongly regularize the phase space of the NODE, making TRENDy significantly more robust to noise compared to existing methods. We train TRENDy to predict the effective dynamics of synthetic and real data representing dynamics from across the physical and life sciences. We then demonstrate how our framework can automatically locate both Turing and Hopf bifurcations in unseen regions of parameter space. We finally apply our method to the analysis of spatial patterning of the ocellated lizard through development. We found that TRENDy's effective state not only accurately predicts spatial changes over time but also identifies distinct pattern features unique to different anatomical regions, highlighting the potential influence of surface geometry on reaction-diffusion mechanisms and their role in driving spatially varying pattern dynamics.