A popular strategy for active learning is to specifically target a reduction in epistemic uncertainty, since aleatoric uncertainty is often considered as being intrinsic to the system of interest and therefore not reducible. Yet, distinguishing these two types of uncertainty remains challenging and there is no single strategy that consistently outperforms the others. We propose to use a particular combination of probability and possibility theories, with the aim of using the latter to specifically represent epistemic uncertainty, and we show how this combination leads to new active learning strategies that have desirable properties. In order to demonstrate the efficiency of these strategies in non-trivial settings, we introduce the notion of a possibilistic Gaussian process (GP) and consider GP-based multiclass and binary classification problems, for which the proposed methods display a strong performance for both simulated and real datasets.

This paper proposes a novel loss function, called 'Tube Loss', for simultaneous estimation of bounds of a Prediction Interval (PI) in the regression setup, and also for generating probabilistic forecasts from time series data solving a single optimization problem. The PIs obtained by minimizing the empirical risk based on the Tube Loss are shown to be of better quality than the PIs obtained by the existing methods in the following sense. First, it yields intervals that attain the prespecified confidence level $t \in(0,1)$ asymptotically. A theoretical proof of this fact is given. Secondly, the user is allowed to move the interval up or down by controlling the value of a parameter. This helps the user to choose a PI capturing denser regions of the probability distribution of the response variable inside the interval, and thus, sharpening its width. This is shown to be especially useful when the conditional distribution of the response variable is skewed. Further, the Tube Loss based PI estimation method can trade-off between the coverage and the average width by solving a single optimization problem. It enables further reduction of the average width of PI through re-calibration. Also, unlike a few existing PI estimation methods the gradient descent (GD) method can be used for minimization of empirical risk. Finally, through extensive experimentation, we have shown the efficacy of the Tube Loss based PI estimation in kernel machines, neural networks and deep networks and also for probabilistic forecasting tasks. The codes of the experiments are available at https://github.com/ltpritamanand/Tube_loss

Accurate and timely regional weather prediction is vital for sectors dependent on weather-related decisions. Traditional prediction methods, based on atmospheric equations, often struggle with coarse temporal resolutions and inaccuracies. This paper presents a novel machine learning (ML) model, called MiMa (short for Micro-Macro), that integrates both near-surface observational data from Kentucky Mesonet stations (collected every five minutes, known as Micro data) and hourly atmospheric numerical outputs (termed as Macro data) for fine-resolution weather forecasting. The MiMa model employs an encoder-decoder transformer structure, with two encoders for processing multivariate data from both datasets and a decoder for forecasting weather variables over short time horizons. Each instance of the MiMa model, called a modelet, predicts the values of a specific weather parameter at an individual Mesonet station. The approach is extended with Re-MiMa modelets, which are designed to predict weather variables at ungauged locations by training on multivariate data from a few representative stations in a region, tagged with their elevations. Re-MiMa (short for Regional-MiMa) can provide highly accurate predictions across an entire region, even in areas without observational stations. Experimental results show that MiMa significantly outperforms current models, with Re-MiMa offering precise short-term forecasts for ungauged locations, marking a significant advancement in weather forecasting accuracy and applicability.

We propose a framework for adaptive data-centric collaborative learning among self-interested agents, coordinated by an arbiter. Designed to handle the incremental nature of real-world data, the framework operates in an online manner: at each step, the arbiter collects a batch of data from agents, trains a machine learning model, and provides each agent with a distinct model reflecting its data contributions. This setup establishes a feedback loop where shared data influence model updates, and the resulting models guide future data-sharing strategies. Agents evaluate and partition their data, selecting a partition to share using a stochastic parameterized policy optimized via policy gradient methods to optimize the utility of the received model as defined by agent-specific evaluation functions. On the arbiter side, the expected loss function over the true data distribution is optimized, incorporating agent-specific weights to account for distributional differences arising from diverse sources and selective sharing. A bilevel optimization algorithm jointly learns the model parameters and agent-specific weights. Mean-zero noise, computed using a distortion function that adjusts these agent-specific weights, is introduced to generate distinct agent-specific models, promoting valuable data sharing without requiring separate training. Our framework is underpinned by non-asymptotic analyses, ensuring convergence of the agent-side policy optimization to an approximate stationary point of the evaluation functions and convergence of the arbiter-side optimization to an approximate stationary point of the expected loss function.

Continual learning remains challenging across various natural language understanding tasks. When models are updated with new training data, they risk catastrophic forgetting of prior knowledge. In the present work, we introduce a discrete key-value bottleneck for encoder-only language models, allowing for efficient continual learning by requiring only localized updates. Inspired by the success of a discrete key-value bottleneck in vision, we address new and NLP-specific challenges. We experiment with different bottleneck architectures to find the most suitable variants regarding language, and present a generic discrete key initialization technique for NLP that is task independent. We evaluate the discrete key-value bottleneck in four continual learning NLP scenarios and demonstrate that it alleviates catastrophic forgetting. We showcase that it offers competitive performance to other popular continual learning methods, with lower computational costs.

Districting is a complex combinatorial problem that consists in partitioning a geographical area into small districts. In logistics, it is a major strategic decision determining operating costs for several years. Solving districting problems using traditional methods is intractable even for small geographical areas and existing heuristics often provide sub-optimal results. We present a structured learning approach to find high-quality solutions to real-world districting problems in a few minutes. It is based on integrating a combinatorial optimization layer, the capacitated minimum spanning tree problem, into a graph neural network architecture. To train this pipeline in a decision-aware fashion, we show how to construct target solutions embedded in a suitable space and learn from target solutions. Experiments show that our approach outperforms existing methods as it can significantly reduce costs on real-world cities.

Automatic detection of prominence at the word and syllable-levels is critical for building computer-assisted language learning systems. It has been shown that prosody embeddings learned by the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) text-to-speech (TTS) systems could generate word- and syllable-level prominence in the synthesized speech as natural as in native speech. To understand the effectiveness of prosody embeddings from TTS for prominence detection under nonnative context, a comparative analysis is conducted on the embeddings extracted from native and non-native speech considering the prominence-related embeddings: duration, energy, and pitch from a SOTA TTS named FastSpeech2. These embeddings are extracted under two conditions considering: 1) only text, 2) both speech and text. For the first condition, the embeddings are extracted directly from the TTS inference mode, whereas for the second condition, we propose to extract from the TTS under training mode. Experiments are conducted on native speech corpus: Tatoeba, and non-native speech corpus: ISLE. For experimentation, word-level prominence locations are manually annotated for both corpora. The highest relative improvement on word \& syllable-level prominence detection accuracies with the TTS embeddings are found to be 13.7% & 5.9% and 16.2% & 6.9% compared to those with the heuristic-based features and self-supervised Wav2Vec-2.0 representations, respectively.

The task of RNA design given a target structure aims to find a sequence that can fold into that structure. It is a computationally hard problem where some version(s) have been proven to be NP-hard. As a result, heuristic methods such as local search have been popular for this task, but by only exploring a fixed number of candidates. They can not keep up with the exponential growth of the design space, and often perform poorly on longer and harder-to-design structures. We instead formulate these discrete problems as continuous optimization, which starts with a distribution over all possible candidate sequences, and uses gradient descent to improve the expectation of an objective function. We define novel distributions based on coupled variables to rule out invalid sequences given the target structure and to model the correlation between nucleotides. To make it universally applicable to any objective function, we use sampling to approximate the expected objective function, to estimate the gradient, and to select the final candidate. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, our work consistently outperforms them in key metrics such as Boltzmann probability, ensemble defect, and energy gap, especially on long and hard-to-design puzzles in the Eterna100 benchmark. Our code is available at: http://github.com/weiyutang1010/ncrna_design.

We focus on the classification problem with a separable dataset, one of the most important and classical problems from machine learning. The standard approach to this task is logistic regression with gradient descent (LR+GD). Recent studies have observed that LR+GD can find a solution with arbitrarily large step sizes, defying conventional optimization theory. Our work investigates this phenomenon and makes three interconnected key observations about LR+GD with large step sizes. First, we find a remarkably simple explanation of why LR+GD with large step sizes solves the classification problem: LR+GD reduces to a batch version of the celebrated perceptron algorithm when the step size $\gamma \to \infty.$ Second, we observe that larger step sizes lead LR+GD to higher logistic losses when it tends to the perceptron algorithm, but larger step sizes also lead to faster convergence to a solution for the classification problem, meaning that logistic loss is an unreliable metric of the proximity to a solution. Surprisingly, high loss values can actually indicate faster convergence. Third, since the convergence rate in terms of loss function values of LR+GD is unreliable, we examine the iteration complexity required by LR+GD with large step sizes to solve the classification problem and prove that this complexity is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a new method, Normalized LR+GD - based on the connection between LR+GD and the perceptron algorithm - with much better theoretical guarantees.

Clustering ensemble has been a popular research topic in data science due to its ability to improve the robustness of the single clustering method. Many clustering ensemble methods have been proposed, most of which can be categorized into clustering-view and sample-view methods. The clustering-view method is generally efficient, but it could be affected by the unreliability that existed in base clustering results. The sample-view method shows good performance, while the construction of the pairwise sample relation is time-consuming. In this paper, the clustering ensemble is formulated as a k-HyperEdge Medoids discovery problem and a clustering ensemble method based on k-HyperEdge Medoids that considers the characteristics of the above two types of clustering ensemble methods is proposed. In the method, a set of hyperedges is selected from the clustering view efficiently, then the hyperedges are diffused and adjusted from the sample view guided by a hyperedge loss function to construct an effective k-HyperEdge Medoid set. The loss function is mainly reduced by assigning samples to the hyperedge with the highest degree of belonging. Theoretical analyses show that the solution can approximate the optimal, the assignment method can gradually reduce the loss function, and the estimation of the belonging degree is statistically reasonable. Experiments on artificial data show the working mechanism of the proposed method. The convergence of the method is verified by experimental analysis of twenty data sets. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are also verified on these data, with nine representative clustering ensemble algorithms as reference.