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 Statistical Learning


Clio: Privacy-Preserving Insights into Real-World AI Use

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How are AI assistants being used in the real world? While model providers in theory have a window into this impact via their users' data, both privacy concerns and practical challenges have made analyzing this data difficult. To address these issues, we present Clio (Claude insights and observations), a privacy-preserving platform that uses AI assistants themselves to analyze and surface aggregated usage patterns across millions of conversations, without the need for human reviewers to read raw conversations. We validate this can be done with a high degree of accuracy and privacy by conducting extensive evaluations. We demonstrate Clio's usefulness in two broad ways. First, we share insights about how models are being used in the real world from one million Claude.ai Free and Pro conversations, ranging from providing advice on hairstyles to providing guidance on Git operations and concepts. We also identify the most common high-level use cases on Claude.ai (coding, writing, and research tasks) as well as patterns that differ across languages (e.g., conversations in Japanese discuss elder care and aging populations at higher-than-typical rates). Second, we use Clio to make our systems safer by identifying coordinated attempts to abuse our systems, monitoring for unknown unknowns during critical periods like launches of new capabilities or major world events, and improving our existing monitoring systems. We also discuss the limitations of our approach, as well as risks and ethical concerns. By enabling analysis of real-world AI usage, Clio provides a scalable platform for empirically grounded AI safety and governance.


A hybrid framework for effective and efficient machine unlearning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently machine unlearning (MU) is proposed to remove the imprints of revoked samples from the already trained model parameters, to solve users' privacy concern. Different from the runtime expensive retraining from scratch, there exist two research lines, exact MU and approximate MU with different favorites in terms of accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid strategy on top of them to achieve an overall success. It implements the unlearning operation with an acceptable computation cost, while simultaneously improving the accuracy as much as possible. Specifically, it runs reasonable unlearning techniques by estimating the retraining workloads caused by revocations. If the workload is lightweight, it performs retraining to derive the model parameters consistent with the accurate ones retrained from scratch. Otherwise, it outputs the unlearned model by directly modifying the current parameters, for better efficiency. In particular, to improve the accuracy in the latter case, we propose an optimized version to amend the output model with lightweight runtime penalty. We particularly study the boundary of two approaches in our frameworks to adaptively make the smart selection. Extensive experiments on real datasets validate that our proposals can improve the unlearning efficiency by 1.5$\times$ to 8$\times$ while achieving comparable accuracy.


Machine Learning Co-pilot for Screening of Organic Molecular Additives for Perovskite Solar Cells

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) has been extensively employed in planar perovskite photovoltaics to screen effective organic molecular additives, while encountering predictive biases for novel materials due to small datasets and reliance on predefined descriptors. Present work thus proposes an effective approach, Co-Pilot for Perovskite Additive Screener (Co-PAS), an ML-driven framework designed to accelerate additive screening for perovskite solar cells (PSCs). Co-PAS overcomes predictive biases by integrating the Molecular Scaffold Classifier (MSC) for scaffold-based pre-screening and utilizing Junction Tree Variational Autoencoder (JTVAE) latent vectors to enhance molecular structure representation, thereby enhancing the accuracy of power conversion efficiency (PCE) predictions. Leveraging Co-PAS, we integrate domain knowledge to screen an extensive dataset of 250,000 molecules from PubChem, prioritizing candidates based on predicted PCE values and key molecular properties such as donor number, dipole moment, and hydrogen bond acceptor count. This workflow leads to the identification of several promising passivating molecules, including the novel Boc-L-threonine N-hydroxysuccinimide ester (BTN), which, to our knowledge, has not been explored as an additive in PSCs and achieves a device PCE of 25.20%. Our results underscore the potential of Co-PAS in advancing additive discovery for high-performance PSCs.


Consistency Matters: Defining Demonstration Data Quality Metrics in Robot Learning from Demonstration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning from Demonstration (LfD) empowers robots to acquire new skills through human demonstrations, making it feasible for everyday users to teach robots. However, the success of learning and generalization heavily depends on the quality of these demonstrations. Consistency is often used to indicate quality in LfD, yet the factors that define this consistency remain underexplored. In this paper, we evaluate a comprehensive set of motion data characteristics to determine which consistency measures best predict learning performance. By ensuring demonstration consistency prior to training, we enhance models' predictive accuracy and generalization to novel scenarios. We validate our approach with two user studies involving participants with diverse levels of robotics expertise. In the first study (N = 24), users taught a PR2 robot to perform a button-pressing task in a constrained environment, while in the second study (N = 30), participants trained a UR5 robot on a pick-and-place task. Results show that demonstration consistency significantly impacts success rates in both learning and generalization, with 70% and 89% of task success rates in the two studies predicted using our consistency metrics. Moreover, our metrics estimate generalized performance success rates with 76% and 91% accuracy. These findings suggest that our proposed measures provide an intuitive, practical way to assess demonstration data quality before training, without requiring expert data or algorithm-specific modifications. Our approach offers a systematic way to evaluate demonstration quality, addressing a critical gap in LfD by formalizing consistency metrics that enhance the reliability of robot learning from human demonstrations.


THESAURUS: Contrastive Graph Clustering by Swapping Fused Gromov-Wasserstein Couplings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph node clustering is a fundamental unsupervised task. Existing methods typically train an encoder through selfsupervised learning and then apply K-means to the encoder output. Some methods use this clustering result directly as the final assignment, while others initialize centroids based on this initial clustering and then finetune both the encoder and these learnable centroids. However, due to their reliance on K-means, these methods inherit its drawbacks when the cluster separability of encoder output is low, facing challenges from the Uniform Effect and Cluster Assimilation. We summarize three reasons for the low cluster separability in existing methods: (1) lack of contextual information prevents discrimination between similar nodes from different clusters; (2) training tasks are not sufficiently aligned with the downstream clustering task; (3) the cluster information in the graph structure is not appropriately exploited. To address these issues, we propose conTrastive grapH clustEring by SwApping fUsed gRomov-wasserstein coUplingS (THESAURUS). Our method introduces semantic prototypes to provide contextual information, and employs a cross-view assignment prediction pretext task that aligns well with the downstream clustering task. Additionally, it utilizes Gromov-Wasserstein Optimal Transport (GW-OT) along with the proposed prototype graph to thoroughly exploit cluster information in the graph structure. To adapt to diverse real-world data, THESAURUS updates the prototype graph and the prototype marginal distribution in OT by using momentum. Extensive experiments demonstrate that THESAURUS achieves higher cluster separability than the prior art, effectively mitigating the Uniform Effect and Cluster Assimilation issues


Towards Precise Prediction Uncertainty in GNNs: Refining GNNs with Topology-grouping Strategy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs) have highlighted the critical need of calibrating model predictions, with neighborhood prediction similarity recognized as a pivotal component. Existing studies suggest that nodes with analogous neighborhood prediction similarity often exhibit similar calibration characteristics. Building on this insight, recent approaches incorporate neighborhood similarity into node-wise temperature scaling techniques. However, our analysis reveals that this assumption does not hold universally. Calibration errors can differ significantly even among nodes with comparable neighborhood similarity, depending on their confidence levels. This necessitates a re-evaluation of existing GNN calibration methods, as a single, unified approach may lead to sub-optimal calibration. In response, we introduce **Simi-Mailbox**, a novel approach that categorizes nodes by both neighborhood similarity and their own confidence, irrespective of proximity or connectivity. Our method allows fine-grained calibration by employing *group-specific* temperature scaling, with each temperature tailored to address the specific miscalibration level of affiliated nodes, rather than adhering to a uniform trend based on neighborhood similarity. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our **Simi-Mailbox** across diverse datasets on different GNN architectures, achieving up to 13.79\% error reduction compared to uncalibrated GNN predictions.


EPN: An Ego Vehicle Planning-Informed Network for Target Trajectory Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in improving the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles, serving as an intermediate link between perception and planning. However, due to the highly dynamic and multimodal nature of the task, accurately predicting the future trajectory of a target vehicle remains a significant challenge. To address these challenges, we propose an Ego vehicle Planning-informed Network (EPN) for multimodal trajectory prediction. Current trajectory prediction methods typically use the historical trajectory and vehicle attributes as inputs, focusing primarily on how historical information influences the future trajectory of the target vehicle. In real-world driving scenarios, however, the future trajectory of a vehicle is influenced not only by its own historical data but also by the behavior of other vehicles on the road. To address this, we incorporate the future planned trajectory of the ego vehicle as an additional input to simulate the mutual influence between the ego vehicle's planned trajectory and the predicted trajectory of the target vehicle. Furthermore, to tackle the challenges of intention ambiguity and large prediction errors often encountered in methods based on driving intentions, we propose a target's endpoint prediction module. This module first predicts the possible endpoints of the target vehicle, then refines these predictions through a correction mechanism, and finally generates a complete multimodal predicted trajectory based on the corrected endpoints. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared to other trajectory prediction methods, EPN achieves an average reduction of 34.9%, 30.7%, and 30.4% in RMSE, ADE, and FDE evaluation metrics on the NGSIM dataset, and an average reduction of 64.6%, 64.5%, and 64.3% in RMSE, ADE, and FDE on the HighD dataset. These results highlight the strong performance of EPN in trajectory prediction.


Machine learning in wastewater treatment: insights from modelling a pilot denitrification reactor

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wastewater treatment plants are increasingly recognized as promising candidates for machine learning applications, due to their societal importance and high availability of data. However, their varied designs, operational conditions, and influent characteristics hinder straightforward automation. In this study, we use data from a pilot reactor at the Veas treatment facility in Norway to explore how machine learning can be used to optimize biological nitrate ($\mathrm{NO_3^-}$) reduction to molecular nitrogen ($\mathrm{N_2}$) in the biogeochemical process known as \textit{denitrification}. Rather than focusing solely on predictive accuracy, our approach prioritizes understanding the foundational requirements for effective data-driven modelling of wastewater treatment. Specifically, we aim to identify which process parameters are most critical, the necessary data quantity and quality, how to structure data effectively, and what properties are required by the models. We find that nonlinear models perform best on the training and validation data sets, indicating nonlinear relationships to be learned, but linear models transfer better to the unseen test data, which comes later in time. The variable measuring the water temperature has a particularly detrimental effect on the models, owing to a significant change in distributions between training and test data. We therefore conclude that multiple years of data is necessary to learn robust machine learning models. By addressing foundational elements, particularly in the context of the climatic variability faced by northern regions, this work lays the groundwork for a more structured and tailored approach to machine learning for wastewater treatment. We share publicly both the data and code used to produce the results in the paper.


Federated Source-free Domain Adaptation for Classification: Weighted Cluster Aggregation for Unlabeled Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) commonly assumes that the server or some clients have labeled data, which is often impractical due to annotation costs and privacy concerns. Addressing this problem, we focus on a source-free domain adaptation task, where (1) the server holds a pre-trained model on labeled source domain data, (2) clients possess only unlabeled data from various target domains, and (3) the server and clients cannot access the source data in the adaptation phase. This task is known as Federated source-Free Domain Adaptation (FFREEDA). Specifically, we focus on classification tasks, while the previous work solely studies semantic segmentation. Our contribution is the novel Federated learning with Weighted Cluster Aggregation (FedWCA) method, designed to mitigate both domain shifts and privacy concerns with only unlabeled data. FedWCA comprises three phases: private and parameter-free clustering of clients to obtain domain-specific global models on the server, weighted aggregation of the global models for the clustered clients, and local domain adaptation with pseudo-labeling. Experimental results show that FedWCA surpasses several existing methods and baselines in FFREEDA, establishing its effectiveness and practicality.


PreMixer: MLP-Based Pre-training Enhanced MLP-Mixers for Large-scale Traffic Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In urban computing, precise and swift forecasting of multivariate time series data from traffic networks is crucial. This data incorporates additional spatial contexts such as sensor placements and road network layouts, and exhibits complex temporal patterns that amplify challenges for predictive learning in traffic management, smart mobility demand, and urban planning. Consequently, there is an increasing need to forecast traffic flow across broader geographic regions and for higher temporal coverage. However, current research encounters limitations because of the inherent inefficiency of model and their unsuitability for large-scale traffic network applications due to model complexity. This paper proposes a novel framework, named PreMixer, designed to bridge this gap. It features a predictive model and a pre-training mechanism, both based on the principles of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP). The PreMixer comprehensively consider temporal dependencies of traffic patterns in different time windows and processes the spatial dynamics as well. Additionally, we integrate spatio-temporal positional encoding to manage spatiotemporal heterogeneity without relying on predefined graphs. Furthermore, our innovative pre-training model uses a simple patch-wise MLP to conduct masked time series modeling, learning from long-term historical data segmented into patches to generate enriched contextual representations. This approach enhances the downstream forecasting model without incurring significant time consumption or computational resource demands owing to improved learning efficiency and data handling flexibility. Our framework achieves comparable state-of-the-art performance while maintaining high computational efficiency, as verified by extensive experiments on large-scale traffic datasets.