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 Statistical Learning


Engineering Carbon Credits Towards A Responsible FinTech Era: The Practices, Implications, and Future

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Carbon emissions significantly contribute to climate change, and carbon credits have emerged as a key tool for mitigating environmental damage and helping organizations manage their carbon footprint. Despite their growing importance across sectors, fully leveraging carbon credits remains challenging. This study explores engineering practices and fintech solutions to enhance carbon emission management. We first review the negative impacts of carbon emission non-disclosure, revealing its adverse effects on financial stability and market value. Organizations are encouraged to actively manage emissions and disclose relevant data to mitigate risks. Next, we analyze factors influencing carbon prices and review advanced prediction algorithms that optimize carbon credit purchasing strategies, reducing costs and improving efficiency. Additionally, we examine corporate carbon emission prediction models, which offer accurate performance assessments and aid in planning future carbon credit needs. By integrating carbon price and emission predictions, we propose research directions, including corporate carbon management cost forecasting. This study provides a foundation for future quantitative research on the financial and market impacts of carbon management practices and is the first systematic review focusing on computing solutions and engineering practices for carbon credits.


Empirical evaluation of normalizing flows in Markov Chain Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent advances in MCMC use normalizing flows to precondition target distributions and enable jumps to distant regions. However, there is currently no systematic comparison of different normalizing flow architectures for MCMC. As such, many works choose simple flow architectures that are readily available and do not consider other models. Guidelines for choosing an appropriate architecture would reduce analysis time for practitioners and motivate researchers to take the recommended models as foundations to be improved. We provide the first such guideline by extensively evaluating many normalizing flow architectures on various flow-based MCMC methods and target distributions. When the target density gradient is available, we show that flow-based MCMC outperforms classic MCMC for suitable NF architecture choices with minor hyperparameter tuning. When the gradient is unavailable, flow-based MCMC wins with off-the-shelf architectures. We find contractive residual flows to be the best general-purpose models with relatively low sensitivity to hyperparameter choice. We also provide various insights into normalizing flow behavior within MCMC when varying their hyperparameters, properties of target distributions, and the overall computational budget.


Unifying Feature-Based Explanations with Functional ANOVA and Cooperative Game Theory

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Feature-based explanations, using perturbations or gradients, are a prevalent tool to understand decisions of black box machine learning models. Yet, differences between these methods still remain mostly unknown, which limits their applicability for practitioners. In this work, we introduce a unified framework for local and global feature-based explanations using two well-established concepts: functional ANOVA (fANOVA) from statistics, and the notion of value and interaction from cooperative game theory. We introduce three fANOVA decompositions that determine the influence of feature distributions, and use game-theoretic measures, such as the Shapley value and interactions, to specify the influence of higher-order interactions. Our framework combines these two dimensions to uncover similarities and differences between a wide range of explanation techniques for features and groups of features. We then empirically showcase the usefulness of our framework on synthetic and real-world datasets.


A Semi-supervised CART Model for Covariate Shift

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning models used in medical applications often face challenges due to the covariate shift, which occurs when there are discrepancies between the distributions of training and target data. This can lead to decreased predictive accuracy, especially with unknown outcomes in the target data. This paper introduces a semi-supervised classification and regression tree (CART) that uses importance weighting to address these distribution discrepancies. Our method improves the predictive performance of the CART model by assigning greater weights to training samples that more accurately represent the target distribution, especially in cases of covariate shift without target outcomes. In addition to CART, we extend this weighted approach to generalized linear model trees and tree ensembles, creating a versatile framework for managing the covariate shift in complex datasets. Through simulation studies and applications to real-world medical data, we demonstrate significant improvements in predictive accuracy. These findings suggest that our weighted approach can enhance reliability in medical applications and other fields where the covariate shift poses challenges to model performance across various data distributions.


A Lorentz-Equivariant Transformer for All of the LHC

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We show that the Lorentz-Equivariant Geometric Algebra Transformer (L-GATr) yields state-of-the-art performance for a wide range of machine learning tasks at the Large Hadron Collider. L-GATr represents data in a geometric algebra over space-time and is equivariant under Lorentz transformations. The underlying architecture is a versatile and scalable transformer, which is able to break symmetries if needed. We demonstrate the power of L-GATr for amplitude regression and jet classification, and then benchmark it as the first Lorentz-equivariant generative network. For all three LHC tasks, we find significant improvements over previous architectures.


Differentially Private Random Block Coordinate Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Coordinate Descent (CD) methods have gained significant attention in machine learning due to their effectiveness in solving high-dimensional problems and their ability to decompose complex optimization tasks. However, classical CD methods were neither designed nor analyzed with data privacy in mind, a critical concern when handling sensitive information. This has led to the development of differentially private CD methods, such as DP-CD (Differentially Private Coordinate Descent) proposed by Mangold et al. (ICML 2022), yet a disparity remains between non-private CD and DP-CD methods. In our work, we propose a differentially private random block coordinate descent method that selects multiple coordinates with varying probabilities in each iteration using sketch matrices. Our algorithm generalizes both DP-CD and the classical DP-SGD (Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent), while preserving the same utility guarantees. Furthermore, we demonstrate that better utility can be achieved through importance sampling, as our method takes advantage of the heterogeneity in coordinate-wise smoothness constants, leading to improved convergence rates.


Optimized Gradient Clipping for Noisy Label Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Previous research has shown that constraining the gradient of loss function with respect to model-predicted probabilities can enhance the model robustness against noisy labels. These methods typically specify a fixed optimal threshold for gradient clipping through validation data to obtain the desired robustness against noise. However, this common practice overlooks the dynamic distribution of gradients from both clean and noisy-labeled samples at different stages of training, significantly limiting the model capability to adapt to the variable nature of gradients throughout the training process. To address this issue, we propose a simple yet effective approach called Optimized Gradient Clipping (OGC), which dynamically adjusts the clipping threshold based on the ratio of noise gradients to clean gradients after clipping, estimated by modeling the distributions of clean and noisy samples. This approach allows us to modify the clipping threshold at each training step, effectively controlling the influence of noise gradients. Additionally, we provide statistical analysis to certify the noise-tolerance ability of OGC. Our extensive experiments across various types of label noise, including symmetric, asymmetric, instance-dependent, and real-world noise, demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.


Distributionally Robust Instrumental Variables Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Instrumental variables (IV) estimation, also known as IV regression, is a fundamental method in econometrics and statistics to infer causal relationships in observational data with unobserved confounding. It leverages access to additional variables (instruments) that affect the outcome exogenously and exclusively through the endogenous regressor to yield consistent causal estimates, even when the standard ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator is biased by unobserved confounding (Imbens and Angrist, 1994; Angrist et al., 1996; Imbens and Rubin, 2015). Over the years, IV estimation has become an indispensable tool for causal inference in empirical works in economics (Card and Krueger, 1994), as well as in the study of genetic and epidemiological data (Davey Smith and Ebrahim, 2003). Despite the widespread use of IV in empirical and applied works, it has important limitations and challenges, such as invalid instruments (Sargan, 1958; Murray, 2006), weak instruments (Staiger and Stock, 1997), non-compliance (Imbens and Angrist, 1994), and heteroskedasticity, especially in settings with weak instruments or highly leveraged datasets (Andrews et al., 2019; Young, 2022). These issues could significantly impact the validity and quality of estimation and inference using instrumental variables (Jiang, 2017). Many works have since been devoted to assessing and addressing these issues, such as statistical tests (Hansen, 1982; Stock and Yogo, 2002), sensitivity analysis (Rosenbaum and Rubin, 1983; Bonhomme and Weidner, 2022), and additional assumptions or structures on the data generating process (Kolesár et al., 2015; Kang et al., 2016; Guo et al., 2018b). Recently, an emerging line of works have highlighted interesting connections between causality and the concepts of invariance and robustness (Peters et al., 2016; Meinshausen, 2018; Rothenhäusler et al., 2021; Bühlmann, 2020; Jakobsen and Peters, 2022; Fan et al., 2024). Their guiding philosophy is that causal properties can be viewed as robustness against changes across heterogeneous environments, represented by a set P of data distributions.


Fair and Accurate Regression: Strong Formulations and Algorithms

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces mixed-integer optimization methods to solve regression problems that incorporate fairness metrics. We propose an exact formulation for training fair regression models. To tackle this computationally hard problem, we study the polynomially-solvable single-factor and single-observation subproblems as building blocks and derive their closed convex hull descriptions. Strong formulations obtained for the general fair regression problem in this manner are utilized to solve the problem with a branch-and-bound algorithm exactly or as a relaxation to produce fair and accurate models rapidly. Moreover, to handle large-scale instances, we develop a coordinate descent algorithm motivated by the convex-hull representation of the single-factor fair regression problem to improve a given solution efficiently. Numerical experiments conducted on fair least squares and fair logistic regression problems show competitive statistical performance with state-of-the-art methods while significantly reducing training times.


MARINA-P: Superior Performance in Non-smooth Federated Optimization with Adaptive Stepsizes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Non-smooth communication-efficient federated optimization is crucial for many machine learning applications, yet remains largely unexplored theoretically. Recent advancements have primarily focused on smooth convex and non-convex regimes, leaving a significant gap in understanding the non-smooth convex setting. Additionally, existing literature often overlooks efficient server-to-worker communication (downlink), focusing primarily on worker-to-server communication (uplink). We consider a setup where uplink costs are negligible and focus on optimizing downlink communication by improving state-of-the-art schemes like EF21-P (arXiv:2209.15218) and MARINA-P (arXiv:2402.06412) in the non-smooth convex setting. We extend the non-smooth convex theory of EF21-P [Anonymous, 2024], originally developed for single-node scenarios, to the distributed setting, and extend MARINA-P to the non-smooth convex setting. For both algorithms, we prove an optimal $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate and establish communication complexity bounds matching classical subgradient methods. We provide theoretical guarantees under constant, decreasing, and adaptive (Polyak-type) stepsizes. Our experiments demonstrate that MARINA-P with correlated compressors outperforms other methods in both smooth non-convex and non-smooth convex settings. This work presents the first theoretical results for distributed non-smooth optimization with server-to-worker compression, along with comprehensive analysis for various stepsize schemes.