Federated Learning (FL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for decentralized machine learning, enabling collaborative model training across diverse clients without sharing raw data. However, traditional FL approaches often face limitations in scalability and efficiency due to their reliance on synchronous client updates, which can result in significant delays and increased communication overhead, particularly in heterogeneous and dynamic environments. To address these challenges in this paper, we propose an Asynchronous Federated Learning (AFL) algorithm, which allows clients to update the global model independently and asynchronously. Our key contributions include a comprehensive convergence analysis of AFL in the presence of client delays and model staleness. By leveraging martingale difference sequence theory and variance bounds, we ensure robust convergence despite asynchronous updates. Assuming strongly convex local objective functions, we establish bounds on gradient variance under random client sampling and derive a recursion formula quantifying the impact of client delays on convergence. The proposed AFL algorithm addresses key limitations of traditional FL methods, such as inefficiency due to global synchronization and susceptibility to client drift. It enhances scalability, robustness, and efficiency in real-world settings with heterogeneous client populations and dynamic network conditions. Our results underscore the potential of AFL to drive advancements in distributed learning systems, particularly for large-scale, privacy-preserving applications in resource-constrained environments.

Reliable and interpretable traffic crash modeling is essential for understanding causality and improving road safety. This study introduces a novel approach to predicting collision types by utilizing a comprehensive dataset fused from multiple sources, including weather data, crash reports, high-resolution traffic information, pavement geometry, and facility characteristics. Central to our approach is the development of a Feature Group Tabular Transformer (FGTT) model, which organizes disparate data into meaningful feature groups, represented as tokens. These group-based tokens serve as rich semantic components, enabling effective identification of collision patterns and interpretation of causal mechanisms. The FGTT model is benchmarked against widely used tree ensemble models, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and CatBoost, demonstrating superior predictive performance. Furthermore, model interpretation reveals key influential factors, providing fresh insights into the underlying causality of distinct crash types.

We show how random feature maps can be used to forecast dynamical systems with excellent forecasting skill. We consider the tanh activation function and judiciously choose the internal weights in a data-driven manner such that the resulting features explore the nonlinear, non-saturated regions of the activation function. We introduce skip connections and construct a deep variant of random feature maps by combining several units. To mitigate the curse of dimensionality, we introduce localization where we learn local maps, employing conditional independence. Our modified random feature maps provide excellent forecasting skill for both single trajectory forecasts as well as long-time estimates of statistical properties, for a range of chaotic dynamical systems with dimensions up to 512. In contrast to other methods such as reservoir computers which require extensive hyperparameter tuning, we effectively need to tune only a single hyperparameter, and are able to achieve state-of-the-art forecast skill with much smaller networks.

Data augmentation is a crucial step in the development of robust supervised learning models, especially when dealing with limited datasets. This study explores interpolation techniques for the augmentation of geo-referenced data, with the aim of predicting the presence of Commelina benghalensis L. in sugarcane plots in La R\'eunion. Given the spatial nature of the data and the high cost of data collection, we evaluated two interpolation approaches: Gaussian processes (GPs) with different kernels and kriging with various variograms. The objectives of this work are threefold: (i) to identify which interpolation methods offer the best predictive performance for various regression algorithms, (ii) to analyze the evolution of performance as a function of the number of observations added, and (iii) to assess the spatial consistency of augmented datasets. The results show that GP-based methods, in particular with combined kernels (GP-COMB), significantly improve the performance of regression algorithms while requiring less additional data. Although kriging shows slightly lower performance, it is distinguished by a more homogeneous spatial coverage, a potential advantage in certain contexts.

We prove that a classifier with a Barron-regular decision boundary can be approximated with a rate of high polynomial degree by ReLU neural networks with three hidden layers when a margin condition is assumed. In particular, for strong margin conditions, high-dimensional discontinuous classifiers can be approximated with a rate that is typically only achievable when approximating a low-dimensional smooth function. We demonstrate how these expression rate bounds imply fast-rate learning bounds that are close to $n^{-1}$ where $n$ is the number of samples. In addition, we carry out comprehensive numerical experimentation on binary classification problems with various margins. We study three different dimensions, with the highest dimensional problem corresponding to images from the MNIST data set.

Maximum-entropy methods, rooted in the inverse Ising/Potts problem from statistical mechanics, have become indispensable tools for modeling pairwise interactions in disciplines such as bioinformatics, ecology, and neuroscience. Despite their remarkable success, these methods often overlook high-order interactions that may be crucial in complex systems. Conversely, while modern machine learning approaches can capture such interactions, existing interpretable frameworks are computationally expensive, making it impractical to assess the relevance of high-order interactions in real-world scenarios. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) offer a computationally efficient alternative by encoding statistical correlations via hidden nodes in a bipartite neural network. Here, we present a method that maps RBMs exactly onto generalized Potts models with interactions of arbitrary high order. This approach leverages large-$N$ approximations, facilitated by the simple architecture of the RBM, to enable the efficient extraction of effective many-body couplings with minimal computational cost. This mapping also enables the development of a general formal framework for the extraction of effective higher-order interactions in arbitrarily complex probabilistic models. Additionally, we introduce a robust formalism for gauge fixing within the generalized Potts model. We validate our method by accurately recovering two- and three-body interactions from synthetic datasets. Additionally, applying our framework to protein sequence data demonstrates its effectiveness in reconstructing protein contact maps, achieving performance comparable to state-of-the-art inverse Potts models. These results position RBMs as a powerful and efficient tool for investigating high-order interactions in complex systems.

The performance of unsupervised methods such as clustering depends on the choice of distance metric between features, or ground metric. Commonly, ground metrics are decided with heuristics or learned via supervised algorithms. However, since many interesting datasets are unlabelled, unsupervised ground metric learning approaches have been introduced. One promising option employs Wasserstein singular vectors (WSVs), which emerge when computing optimal transport distances between features and samples simultaneously. WSVs are effective, but can be prohibitively computationally expensive in some applications: $\mathcal{O}(n^2m^2(n \log(n) + m \log(m))$ for $n$ samples and $m$ features. In this work, we propose to augment the WSV method by embedding samples and features on trees, on which we compute the tree-Wasserstein distance (TWD). We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the algorithm converges to a better approximation of the standard WSV approach than the best known alternatives, and does so with $\mathcal{O}(n^3+m^3+mn)$ complexity. In addition, we prove that the initial tree structure can be chosen flexibly, since tree geometry does not constrain the richness of the approximation up to the number of edge weights. This proof suggests a fast and recursive algorithm for computing the tree parameter basis set, which we find crucial to realising the efficiency gains at scale. Finally, we employ the tree-WSV algorithm to several single-cell RNA sequencing genomics datasets, demonstrating its scalability and utility for unsupervised cell-type clustering problems. These results poise unsupervised ground metric learning with TWD as a low-rank approximation of WSV with the potential for widespread application.

We study the problem of training neural stochastic differential equations, or diffusion models, to sample from a Boltzmann distribution without access to target samples. Existing methods for training such models enforce time-reversal of the generative and noising processes, using either differentiable simulation or off-policy reinforcement learning (RL). We prove equivalences between families of objectives in the limit of infinitesimal discretization steps, linking entropic RL methods (GFlowNets) with continuous-time objects (partial differential equations and path space measures). We further show that an appropriate choice of coarse time discretization during training allows greatly improved sample efficiency and the use of time-local objectives, achieving competitive performance on standard sampling benchmarks with reduced computational cost.

Generative methods for graphs need to be sufficiently flexible to model complex dependencies between sets of nodes. At the same time, the generated graphs need to satisfy domain-dependent feasibility conditions, that is, they should not violate certain constraints that would make their interpretation impossible within the given application domain (e.g. a molecular graph where an atom has a very large number of chemical bounds). Crucially, constraints can involve not only local but also long-range dependencies: for example, the maximal length of a cycle can be bounded. Currently, a large class of generative approaches for graphs, such as methods based on artificial neural networks, is based on message passing schemes. These approaches suffer from information 'dilution' issues that severely limit the maximal range of the dependencies that can be modeled. To address this problem, we propose a generative approach based on the notion of graph grammars. The key novel idea is to introduce a domain-dependent coarsening procedure to provide short-cuts for long-range dependencies. We show the effectiveness of our proposal in two domains: 1) small drugs and 2) RNA secondary structures. In the first case, we compare the quality of the generated molecular graphs via the Molecular Sets (MOSES) benchmark suite, which evaluates the distance between generated and real molecules, their lipophilicity, synthesizability, and drug-likeness. In the second case, we show that the approach can generate very large graphs (with hundreds of nodes) that are accepted as valid examples for a desired RNA family by the "Infernal" covariance model, a state-of-the-art RNA classifier. Our implementation is available on github: github.com/fabriziocosta/GraphLearn

Machine learning (ML) models have shown success in applications with an objective of prediction, but the algorithmic complexity of some models makes them difficult to interpret. Methods have been proposed to provide insight into these "black-box" models, but there is little research that focuses on supervised ML when the model inputs are functional data. In this work, we consider two applications from high-consequence spaces with objectives of making predictions using functional data inputs. One application aims to classify material types to identify explosive materials given hyperspectral computed tomography scans of the materials. The other application considers the forensics science task of connecting an inkjet printed document to the source printer using color signatures extracted by Raman spectroscopy. An instinctive route to consider for analyzing these data is a data driven ML model for classification, but due to the high consequence nature of the applications, we argue it is important to appropriately account for the nature of the data in the analysis to not obscure or misrepresent patterns. As such, we propose the Variable importance Explainable Elastic Shape Analysis (VEESA) pipeline for training ML models with functional data that (1) accounts for the vertical and horizontal variability in the functional data and (2) provides an explanation in the original data space of how the model uses variability in the functional data for prediction. The pipeline makes use of elastic functional principal components analysis (efPCA) to generate uncorrelated model inputs and permutation feature importance (PFI) to identify the principal components important for prediction. The variability captured by the important principal components in visualized the original data space. We ultimately discuss ideas for natural extensions of the VEESA pipeline and challenges for future research.