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 Statistical Learning


Enhancing Synthetic Oversampling for Imbalanced Datasets Using Proxima-Orion Neighbors and q-Gaussian Weighting Technique

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this article, we propose a novel oversampling algorithm to increase the number of instances of minority class in an imbalanced dataset. We select two instances, Proxima and Orion, from the set of all minority class instances, based on a combination of relative distance weights and density estimation of majority class instances. Furthermore, the q-Gaussian distribution is used as a weighting mechanism to produce new synthetic instances to improve the representation and diversity. We conduct a comprehensive experiment on 42 datasets extracted from KEEL software and eight datasets from the UCI ML repository to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed (PO-QG) algorithm. Wilcoxon signed-rank test is used to compare the proposed algorithm with five other existing algorithms. The test results show that the proposed technique improves the overall classification performance. We also demonstrate the PO-QG algorithm to a dataset of Indian patients with sarcopenia.


Measuring Heterogeneity in Machine Learning with Distributed Energy Distance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In distributed and federated learning, heterogeneity across data sources remains a major obstacle to effective model aggregation and convergence. We focus on feature heterogeneity and introduce energy distance as a sensitive measure for quantifying distributional discrepancies. While we show that energy distance is robust for detecting data distribution shifts, its direct use in large-scale systems can be prohibitively expensive. To address this, we develop Taylor approximations that preserve key theoretical quantitative properties while reducing computational overhead. Through simulation studies, we show how accurately capturing feature discrepancies boosts convergence in distributed learning. Finally, we propose a novel application of energy distance to assign penalty weights for aligning predictions across heterogeneous nodes, ultimately enhancing coordination in federated and distributed settings.


Safe Reinforcement Learning for Real-World Engine Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work introduces a toolchain for applying Reinforcement Learning (RL), specifically the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) algorithm, in safety-critical real-world environments. As an exemplary application, transient load control is demonstrated on a single-cylinder internal combustion engine testbench in Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) mode, that offers high thermal efficiency and low emissions. However, HCCI poses challenges for traditional control methods due to its nonlinear, autoregressive, and stochastic nature. RL provides a viable solution, however, safety concerns, such as excessive pressure rise rates, must be addressed when applying to HCCI. A single unsuitable control input can severely damage the engine or cause misfiring and shut down. Additionally, operating limits are not known a priori and must be determined experimentally. To mitigate these risks, real-time safety monitoring based on the k-nearest neighbor algorithm is implemented, enabling safe interaction with the testbench. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated as the RL agent learns a control policy through interaction with the testbench. A root mean square error of 0.1374 bar is achieved for the indicated mean effective pressure, comparable to neural network-based controllers from the literature. The toolchain's flexibility is further demonstrated by adapting the agent's policy to increase ethanol energy shares, promoting renewable fuel use while maintaining safety. This RL approach addresses the longstanding challenge of applying RL to safety-critical real-world environments. The developed toolchain, with its adaptability and safety mechanisms, paves the way for future applicability of RL in engine testbenches and other safety-critical settings.


Ancestral Inference and Learning for Branching Processes in Random Environments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ancestral inference for branching processes in random environments involves determining the ancestor distribution parameters using the population sizes of descendant generations. In this paper, we introduce a new methodology for ancestral inference utilizing the generalized method of moments. We demonstrate that the estimator's behavior is critically influenced by the coefficient of variation of the environment sequence. Furthermore, despite the process's evolution being heavily dependent on the offspring means of various generations, we show that the joint limiting distribution of the ancestor and offspring estimators of the mean, under appropriate centering and scaling, decouple and converge to independent Gaussian random variables when the ratio of the number of generations to the logarithm of the number of replicates converges to zero. Additionally, we provide estimators for the limiting variance and illustrate our findings through numerical experiments and data from Polymerase Chain Reaction experiments and COVID-19 data.


Molecular-driven Foundation Model for Oncologic Pathology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation models are reshaping computational pathology by enabling transfer learning, where models pre-trained on vast datasets can be adapted for downstream diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic response tasks. Despite these advances, foundation models are still limited in their ability to encode the entire gigapixel whole-slide images without additional training and often lack complementary multimodal data. Here, we introduce Threads, a slide-level foundation model capable of generating universal representations of whole-slide images of any size. Threads was pre-trained using a multimodal learning approach on a diverse cohort of 47,171 hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tissue sections, paired with corresponding genomic and transcriptomic profiles - the largest such paired dataset to be used for foundation model development to date. This unique training paradigm enables Threads to capture the tissue's underlying molecular composition, yielding powerful representations applicable to a wide array of downstream tasks. In extensive benchmarking across 54 oncology tasks, including clinical subtyping, grading, mutation prediction, immunohistochemistry status determination, treatment response prediction, and survival prediction, Threads outperformed all baselines while demonstrating remarkable generalizability and label efficiency. It is particularly well suited for predicting rare events, further emphasizing its clinical utility. We intend to make the model publicly available for the broader community.


Towards Robust Stability Prediction in Smart Grids: GAN-based Approach under Data Constraints and Adversarial Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Smart grids are critical for addressing the growing energy demand due to global population growth and urbanization. They enhance efficiency, reliability, and sustainability by integrating renewable energy. Ensuring their availability and safety requires advanced operational control and safety measures. Researchers employ AI and machine learning to assess grid stability, but challenges like the lack of datasets and cybersecurity threats, including adversarial attacks, persist. In particular, data scarcity is a key issue: obtaining grid instability instances is tough due to the need for significant expertise, resources, and time. However, they are essential to test novel research advancements and security mitigations. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework to detect instability in smart grids by employing only stable data. It relies on a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) where the generator is trained to create instability data that are used along with stable data to train the discriminator. Moreover, we include a new adversarial training layer to improve robustness against adversarial attacks. Our solution, tested on a dataset composed of real-world stable and unstable samples, achieve accuracy up to 97.5\% in predicting grid stability and up to 98.9\% in detecting adversarial attacks. Moreover, we implemented our model in a single-board computer demonstrating efficient real-time decision-making with an average response time of less than 7ms. Our solution improves prediction accuracy and resilience while addressing data scarcity in smart grid management.


Multivariate Feature Selection and Autoencoder Embeddings of Ovarian Cancer Clinical and Genetic Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores a data-driven approach to discovering novel clinical and genetic markers in ovarian cancer (OC). Two main analyses were performed: (1) a nonlinear examination of an OC dataset using autoencoders, which compress data into a 3-dimensional latent space to detect potential intrinsic separability between platinum-sensitive and platinum-resistant groups; and (2) an adaptation of the informative variable identifier (IVI) to determine which features (clinical or genetic) are most relevant to disease progression. In the autoencoder analysis, a clearer pattern emerged when using clinical features and the combination of clinical and genetic data, indicating that disease progression groups can be distinguished more effectively after supervised fine tuning. For genetic data alone, this separability was less apparent but became more pronounced with a supervised approach. Using the IVI-based feature selection, key clinical variables (such as type of surgery and neoadjuvant chemotherapy) and certain gene mutations showed strong relevance, along with low-risk genetic factors. These findings highlight the strength of combining machine learning tools (autoencoders) with feature selection methods (IVI) to gain insights into ovarian cancer progression. They also underscore the potential for identifying new biomarkers that integrate clinical and genomic indicators, ultimately contributing to improved patient stratification and personalized treatment strategies.


HopCast: Calibration of Autoregressive Dynamics Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning models are often trained to approximate dynamical systems that can be modeled using differential equations. These models are optimized to predict one step ahead and produce calibrated predictions if the predictive model can quantify uncertainty, such as deep ensembles. At inference time, multi-step predictions are generated via autoregression, which needs a sound uncertainty propagation method (e.g., Trajectory Sampling) to produce calibrated multi-step predictions. This paper introduces an approach named HopCast that uses the Modern Hopfield Network (MHN) to learn the residuals of a deterministic model that approximates the dynamical system. The MHN predicts the density of residuals based on a context vector at any timestep during autoregression. This approach produces calibrated multi-step predictions without uncertainty propagation and turns a deterministic model into a calibrated probabilistic model. This work is also the first to benchmark existing uncertainty propagation methods based on calibration errors with deep ensembles for multi-step predictions.


From Molecules to Mixtures: Learning Representations of Olfactory Mixture Similarity using Inductive Biases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Olfaction -- how molecules are perceived as odors to humans -- remains poorly understood. Recently, the principal odor map (POM) was introduced to digitize the olfactory properties of single compounds. However, smells in real life are not pure single molecules, but complex mixtures of molecules, whose representations remain relatively under-explored. In this work, we introduce POMMix, an extension of the POM to represent mixtures. Our representation builds upon the symmetries of the problem space in a hierarchical manner: (1) graph neural networks for building molecular embeddings, (2) attention mechanisms for aggregating molecular representations into mixture representations, and (3) cosine prediction heads to encode olfactory perceptual distance in the mixture embedding space. POMMix achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance across multiple datasets. We also evaluate the generalizability of the representation on multiple splits when applied to unseen molecules and mixture sizes. Our work advances the effort to digitize olfaction, and highlights the synergy of domain expertise and deep learning in crafting expressive representations in low-data regimes.


Evaluating Data Influence in Meta Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As one of the most fundamental models, meta learning aims to effectively address few-shot learning challenges. However, it still faces significant issues related to the training data, such as training inefficiencies due to numerous low-contribution tasks in large datasets and substantial noise from incorrect labels. Thus, training data attribution methods are needed for meta learning. However, the dual-layer structure of mata learning complicates the modeling of training data contributions because of the interdependent influence between meta-parameters and task-specific parameters, making existing data influence evaluation tools inapplicable or inaccurate. To address these challenges, based on the influence function, we propose a general data attribution evaluation framework for meta-learning within the bilevel optimization framework. Our approach introduces task influence functions (task-IF) and instance influence functions (instance-IF) to accurately assess the impact of specific tasks and individual data points in closed forms. This framework comprehensively models data contributions across both the inner and outer training processes, capturing the direct effects of data points on meta-parameters as well as their indirect influence through task-specific parameters. We also provide several strategies to enhance computational efficiency and scalability. Experimental results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness in training data evaluation via several downstream tasks.