Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) offer transformative potential, but decoding neural signals presents significant challenges. The core premise of this paper is built around demonstrating methods to elucidate the underlying low-dimensional geometric structure present in high-dimensional brainwave data in order to assist in downstream BCI-related neural classification tasks. We demonstrate two pipelines related to electroencephalography (EEG) signal processing: (1) a preliminary pipeline removing noise from individual EEG channels, and (2) a downstream manifold learning pipeline uncovering geometric structure across networks of EEG channels. We conduct preliminary validation using two EEG datasets and situate our demonstration in the context of the BCI-relevant imagined digit decoding problem. Our preliminary pipeline uses an attention-based EEG filtration network to extract clean signal from individual EEG channels. Our primary pipeline uses a fast Fourier transform, a Laplacian eigenmap, a discrete analog of Ricci flow via Ollivier's notion of Ricci curvature, and a graph convolutional network to perform dimensionality reduction on high-dimensional multi-channel EEG data in order to enable regularizable downstream classification. Our system achieves competitive performance with existing signal processing and classification benchmarks; we demonstrate a mean test correlation coefficient of >0.95 at 2 dB on semi-synthetic neural denoising and a downstream EEG-based classification accuracy of 0.97 on distinguishing digit- versus non-digit thoughts. Results are preliminary and our geometric machine learning pipeline should be validated by more extensive follow-up studies; generalizing these results to larger inter-subject sample sizes, different hardware systems, and broader use cases will be crucial.

The gradient descent (GD) has been one of the most common optimizer in machine learning. In particular, the loss landscape of a neural network is typically sharpened during the initial phase of training, making the training dynamics hover on the edge of stability. This is beyond our standard understanding of GD convergence in the stable regime where arbitrarily chosen stepsize is sufficiently smaller than the edge of stability. Recently, Wu et al. (COLT2024) have showed that GD converges with arbitrary stepsize under linearly separable logistic regression. Although their analysis hinges on the self-bounding property of the logistic loss, which seems to be a cornerstone to establish a modified descent lemma, our pilot study shows that other loss functions without the self-bounding property can make GD converge with arbitrary stepsize. To further understand what property of a loss function matters in GD, we aim to show arbitrary-stepsize GD convergence for a general loss function based on the framework of \emph{Fenchel--Young losses}. We essentially leverage the classical perceptron argument to derive the convergence rate for achieving $\epsilon$-optimal loss, which is possible for a majority of Fenchel--Young losses. Among typical loss functions, the Tsallis entropy achieves the GD convergence rate $T=\Omega(\epsilon^{-1/2})$, and the R{\'e}nyi entropy achieves the far better rate $T=\Omega(\epsilon^{-1/3})$. We argue that these better rate is possible because of \emph{separation margin} of loss functions, instead of the self-bounding property.

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating a conditional mean, this can be achieved by producing a predictive interval for the output, or to even learn a model of the conditional probability $p(y|x)$ of an output $y$ given input features $x$. While this can be done under parametric assumptions with, e.g. generalized linear model, these are typically too strong, and non-parametric models offer flexible alternatives. In particular, for scalar outputs, learning directly a model of the conditional cumulative distribution function of $y$ given $x$ can lead to more precise probabilistic estimates, and the use of proper scoring rules such as the weighted interval score (WIS) and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) lead to better coverage and calibration properties. This paper introduces novel algorithms for learning probabilistic regression trees for the WIS or CRPS loss functions. These algorithms are made computationally efficient thanks to an appropriate use of known data structures - namely min-max heaps, weight-balanced binary trees and Fenwick trees. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the performance of our methods is competitive with alternative approaches. Additionally, our methods benefit from the inherent interpretability and explainability of trees. As a by-product, we show how our trees can be used in the context of conformal prediction and explain why they are particularly well-suited for achieving group-conditional coverage guarantees.

Deep learning survival models often outperform classical methods in time-to-event predictions, particularly in personalized medicine, but their "black box" nature hinders broader adoption. We propose a framework for gradient-based explanation methods tailored to survival neural networks, extending their use beyond regression and classification. We analyze the implications of their theoretical assumptions for time-dependent explanations in the survival setting and propose effective visualizations incorporating the temporal dimension. Experiments on synthetic data show that gradient-based methods capture the magnitude and direction of local and global feature effects, including time dependencies. We introduce GradSHAP(t), a gradient-based counterpart to SurvSHAP(t), which outperforms SurvSHAP(t) and SurvLIME in a computational speed vs. accuracy trade-off. Finally, we apply these methods to medical data with multi-modal inputs, revealing relevant tabular features and visual patterns, as well as their temporal dynamics.

As foundational models reshape scientific discovery, a bottleneck persists in dynamical system reconstruction (DSR): the ability to learn across system hierarchies. Many meta-learning approaches have been applied successfully to single systems, but falter when confronted with sparse, loosely related datasets requiring multiple hierarchies to be learned. Mixture of Experts (MoE) offers a natural paradigm to address these challenges. Despite their potential, we demonstrate that naive MoEs are inadequate for the nuanced demands of hierarchical DSR, largely due to their gradient descent-based gating update mechanism which leads to slow updates and conflicted routing during training. To overcome this limitation, we introduce MixER: Mixture of Expert Reconstructors, a novel sparse top-1 MoE layer employing a custom gating update algorithm based on $K$-means and least squares. Extensive experiments validate MixER's capabilities, demonstrating efficient training and scalability to systems of up to ten parametric ordinary differential equations. However, our layer underperforms state-of-the-art meta-learners in high-data regimes, particularly when each expert is constrained to process only a fraction of a dataset composed of highly related data points. Further analysis with synthetic and neuroscientific time series suggests that the quality of the contextual representations generated by MixER is closely linked to the presence of hierarchical structure in the data.

Supervised dimensionality reduction aims to map labeled data to a low-dimensional feature space while maximizing class discriminability. Despite the availability of methods for learning complex non-linear features (e.g. Deep Learning), there is an enduring demand for dimensionality reduction methods that learn linear features due to their interpretability, low computational cost, and broad applicability. However, there is a gap between methods that optimize linear separability (e.g. LDA), and more flexible but computationally expensive methods that optimize over arbitrary class boundaries (e.g. metric-learning methods). Here, we present Supervised Quadratic Feature Analysis (SQFA), a dimensionality reduction method for learning linear features that maximize the differences between class-conditional first- and second-order statistics, which allow for quadratic discrimination. SQFA exploits the information geometry of second-order statistics in the symmetric positive definite manifold. We show that SQFA features support quadratic discriminability in real-world problems. We also provide a theoretical link, based on information geometry, between SQFA and the Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) classifier.

The advent of large language models has ushered in a new era of agentic systems, where artificial intelligence programs exhibit remarkable autonomous decision-making capabilities across diverse domains. This paper explores agentic system workflows in the financial services industry. In particular, we build agentic crews that can effectively collaborate to perform complex modeling and model risk management (MRM) tasks. The modeling crew consists of a manager and multiple agents who perform specific tasks such as exploratory data analysis, feature engineering, model selection, hyperparameter tuning, model training, model evaluation, and writing documentation. The MRM crew consists of a manager along with specialized agents who perform tasks such as checking compliance of modeling documentation, model replication, conceptual soundness, analysis of outcomes, and writing documentation. We demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of modeling and MRM crews by presenting a series of numerical examples applied to credit card fraud detection, credit card approval, and portfolio credit risk modeling datasets.

Modern deep learning practice is governed by the surprising predictability of performance improvement with increases in the scale of data, model size, and compute [17]. Often, the scaling of performance as a function of these quantities exhibits remarkably regular power law behavior, termed a neural scaling law [2, 6, 12, 13, 15, 16, 18, 19, 22, 32]. Here, performance is usually measured by some differentiable loss on the predictions of the model on a held out test set representative of the population. Given the relatively universal behavior of the exponents across architectures and optimizers [11, 18, 19], one might hope that relatively simple models of information processing systems might be able to recover the same types of scaling laws. The (stochastic) gradient descent (SGD) dynamics in random feature models were analyzed in recent works [7, 20, 26] which exhibits a surprising breadth of scaling behavior and captures several interesting phenomena in deep network training. Each of the above works has isolated various effects that can hurt performance compared to the idealized infinite data and infinite model size limits. The model was first studied in [7], where the bottlenecks due to finite width and finite dataset size were computed and, for certain data structure, resulted in a Chinchilla-type scaling result as in [18].

Electrocardiogram (ECG)-based biometrics offer a promising method for user identification, combining intrinsic liveness detection with morphological uniqueness. However, elevated heart rates introduce significant physiological variability, posing challenges to pattern recognition systems and leading to a notable performance gap between resting and post-exercise conditions. Addressing this gap is critical for advancing ECG-based biometric systems for real-world applications. We propose DE-PADA, a Dual Expert model with Personalized Augmentation and Domain Adaptation, designed to enhance robustness across diverse physiological states. The model is trained primarily on resting-state data from the evaluation dataset, without direct exposure to their exercise data. To address variability, DE-PADA incorporates ECG-specific innovations, including heartbeat segmentation into the PQRS interval, known for its relative temporal consistency, and the heart rate-sensitive ST interval, enabling targeted feature extraction tailored to each region's unique characteristics. Personalized augmentation simulates subject-specific T-wave variability across heart rates using individual T-wave peak predictions to adapt augmentation ranges. Domain adaptation further improves generalization by leveraging auxiliary data from supplementary subjects used exclusively for training, including both resting and exercise conditions. Experiments on the University of Toronto ECG Database demonstrate the model's effectiveness. DE-PADA achieves relative improvements in post-exercise identification rates of 26.75% in the initial recovery phase and 11.72% in the late recovery phase, while maintaining a 98.12% identification rate in the sitting position. These results highlight DE-PADA's ability to address intra-subject variability and enhance the robustness of ECG-based biometric systems across diverse physiological states.

With recent advancements in non-invasive techniques for measuring brain activity, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), the study of structural and functional brain networks through graph signal processing (GSP) has gained notable prominence. GSP stands as a key tool in unraveling the interplay between the brain's function and structure, enabling the analysis of graphs defined by the connections between regions of interest -- referred to as connectomes in this context. Our work represents a further step in this direction by exploring supervised contrastive learning methods within the realm of graph representation learning. The main objective of this approach is to generate subject-level (i.e., graph-level) vector representations that bring together subjects sharing the same label while separating those with different labels. These connectome embeddings are derived from a graph neural network Encoder-Decoder architecture, which jointly considers structural and functional connectivity. By leveraging data augmentation techniques, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art performance in a gender classification task using Human Connectome Project data. More broadly, our connectome-centric methodological advances support the promising prospect of using GSP to discover more about brain function, with potential impact to understanding heterogeneity in the neurodegeneration for precision medicine and diagnosis.