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 Statistical Learning


OODD: Test-time Out-of-Distribution Detection with Dynamic Dictionary

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection remains challenging for deep learning models, particularly when test-time OOD samples differ significantly from training outliers. We propose OODD, a novel test-time OOD detection method that dynamically maintains and updates an OOD dictionary without fine-tuning. Our approach leverages a priority queue-based dictionary that accumulates representative OOD features during testing, combined with an informative inlier sampling strategy for in-distribution (ID) samples. To ensure stable performance during early testing, we propose a dual OOD stabilization mechanism that leverages strategically generated outliers derived from ID data. To our best knowledge, extensive experiments on the OpenOOD benchmark demonstrate that OODD significantly outperforms existing methods, achieving a 26.0% improvement in FPR95 on CIFAR-100 Far OOD detection compared to the state-of-the-art approach. Furthermore, we present an optimized variant of the KNN-based OOD detection framework that achieves a 3x speedup while maintaining detection performance.


Learning Disease State from Noisy Ordinal Disease Progression Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning from noisy ordinal labels is a key challenge in medical imaging. In this work, we ask whether ordinal disease progression labels (better, worse, or stable) can be used to learn a representation allowing to classify disease state. For neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), we cast the problem of modeling disease progression between medical visits as a classification task with ordinal ranks. To enhance generalization, we tailor our model to the problem setting by (1) independent image encoding, (2) antisymmetric logit space equivariance, and (3) ordinal scale awareness. In addition, we address label noise by learning an uncertainty estimate for loss re-weighting. Our approach learns an interpretable disease representation enabling strong few-shot performance for the related task of nAMD activity classification from single images, despite being trained only on image pairs with ordinal disease progression labels.


Probabilistic Forecasting via Autoregressive Flow Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we propose FlowTime, a generative model for probabilistic forecasting of multivariate timeseries data. Given historical measurements and optional future covariates, we formulate forecasting as sampling from a learned conditional distribution over future trajectories. Specifically, we decompose the joint distribution of future observations into a sequence of conditional densities, each modeled via a shared flow that transforms a simple base distribution into the next observation distribution, conditioned on observed covariates. To achieve this, we leverage the flow matching (FM) framework, enabling scalable and simulation-free learning of these transformations. By combining this factorization with the FM objective, FlowTime retains the benefits of autoregressive models -- including strong extrapolation performance, compact model size, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates -- while also capturing complex multi-modal conditional distributions, as seen in modern transport-based generative models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of FlowTime on multiple dynamical systems and real-world forecasting tasks.


Autonomous Robotic Radio Source Localization via a Novel Gaussian Mixture Filtering Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study proposes a new Gaussian Mixture Filter (GMF) to improve the estimation performance for the autonomous robotic radio signal source search and localization problem in unknown environments. The proposed filter is first tested with a benchmark numerical problem to validate the performance with other state-of-practice approaches such as Particle Gaussian Mixture (PGM) filters and Particle Filter (PF). Then the proposed approach is tested and compared against PF and PGM filters in real-world robotic field experiments to validate its impact for real-world robotic applications. The considered real-world scenarios have partial observability with the range-only measurement and uncertainty with the measurement model. The results show that the proposed filter can handle this partial observability effectively whilst showing improved performance compared to PF, reducing the computation requirements while demonstrating improved robustness over compared techniques.


Characterizing Nonlinear Dynamics via Smooth Prototype Equivalences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Characterizing dynamical systems given limited measurements is a common challenge throughout the physical and biological sciences. However, this task is challenging, especially due to transient variability in systems with equivalent long-term dynamics. We address this by introducing smooth prototype equivalences (SPE), a framework that fits a diffeomorphism using normalizing flows to distinct prototypes - simplified dynamical systems that define equivalence classes of behavior. SPE enables classification by comparing the deformation loss of the observed sparse, high-dimensional measurements to the prototype dynamics. Furthermore, our approach enables estimation of the invariant sets of the observed dynamics through the learned mapping from prototype space to data space. Our method outperforms existing techniques in the classification of oscillatory systems and can efficiently identify invariant structures like limit cycles and fixed points in an equation-free manner, even when only a small, noisy subset of the phase space is observed. Finally, we show how our method can be used for the detection of biological processes like the cell cycle trajectory from high-dimensional single-cell gene expression data.


Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series forecasting (TSF) has long been a crucial task in both industry and daily life. Most classical statistical models may have certain limitations when applied to practical scenarios in fields such as energy, healthcare, traffic, meteorology, and economics, especially when high accuracy is required. With the continuous development of deep learning, numerous new models have emerged in the field of time series forecasting in recent years. However, existing surveys have not provided a unified summary of the wide range of model architectures in this field, nor have they given detailed summaries of works in feature extraction and datasets. To address this gap, in this review, we comprehensively study the previous works and summarize the general paradigms of Deep Time Series Forecasting (DTSF) in terms of model architectures. Besides, we take an innovative approach by focusing on the composition of time series and systematically explain important feature extraction methods. Additionally, we provide an overall compilation of datasets from various domains in existing works. Finally, we systematically emphasize the significant challenges faced and future research directions in this field.


Reconsidering Feature Structure Information and Latent Space Alignment in Partial Multi-label Feature Selection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The purpose of partial multi-label feature selection is to select the most representative feature subset, where the data comes from partial multi-label datasets that have label ambiguity issues. For label disambiguation, previous methods mainly focus on utilizing the information inside the labels and the relationship between the labels and features. However, the information existing in the feature space is rarely considered, especially in partial multi-label scenarios where the noises is considered to be concentrated in the label space while the feature information is correct. This paper proposes a method based on latent space alignment, which uses the information mined in feature space to disambiguate in latent space through the structural consistency between labels and features. In addition, previous methods overestimate the consistency of features and labels in the latent space after convergence. We comprehensively consider the similarity of latent space projections to feature space and label space, and propose new feature selection term. This method also significantly improves the positive label identification ability of the selected features. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.


Representation Retrieval Learning for Heterogeneous Data Integration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the era of big data, large-scale, multi-modal datasets are increasingly ubiquitous, offering unprecedented opportunities for predictive modeling and scientific discovery. However, these datasets often exhibit complex heterogeneity, such as covariate shift, posterior drift, and missing modalities, that can hinder the accuracy of existing prediction algorithms. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Representation Retrieval ($R^2$) framework, which integrates a representation learning module (the representer) with a sparsity-induced machine learning model (the learner). Moreover, we introduce the notion of "integrativeness" for representers, characterized by the effective data sources used in learning representers, and propose a Selective Integration Penalty (SIP) to explicitly improve the property. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the $R^2$ framework relaxes the conventional full-sharing assumption in multi-task learning, allowing for partially shared structures, and that SIP can improve the convergence rate of the excess risk bound. Extensive simulation studies validate the empirical performance of our framework, and applications to two real-world datasets further confirm its superiority over existing approaches.


A Triple-Inertial Accelerated Alternating Optimization Method for Deep Learning Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm has achieved remarkable success in training deep learning models. However, it has several limitations, including susceptibility to vanishing gradients, sensitivity to input data, and a lack of robust theoretical guarantees. In recent years, alternating minimization (AM) methods have emerged as a promising alternative for model training by employing gradient-free approaches to iteratively update model parameters. Despite their potential, these methods often exhibit slow convergence rates. To address this challenge, we propose a novel Triple-Inertial Accelerated Alternating Minimization (TIAM) framework for neural network training. The TIAM approach incorporates a triple-inertial acceleration strategy with a specialized approximation method, facilitating targeted acceleration of different terms in each sub-problem optimization. This integration improves the efficiency of convergence, achieving superior performance with fewer iterations. Additionally, we provide a convergence analysis of the TIAM algorithm, including its global convergence properties and convergence rate. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of the TIAM method, showing significant improvements in generalization capability and computational efficiency compared to existing approaches, particularly when applied to the rectified linear unit (ReLU) and its variants.


Is a Good Foundation Necessary for Efficient Reinforcement Learning? The Computational Role of the Base Model in Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language model alignment (or, reinforcement learning) techniques that leverage active exploration -- deliberately encouraging the model to produce diverse, informative responses -- offer the promise of super-human capabilities. However, current understanding of algorithm design primitives for computationally efficient exploration with language models is limited. To better understand how to leverage access to powerful pre-trained generative models to improve the efficiency of exploration, we introduce a new computational framework for RL with language models, in which the learner interacts with the model through a sampling oracle. Focusing on the linear softmax model parameterization, we provide new results that reveal the computational-statistical tradeoffs of efficient exploration: 1. Necessity of coverage: Coverage refers to the extent to which the pre-trained model covers near-optimal responses -- a form of hidden knowledge. We show that coverage, while not necessary for data efficiency, lower bounds the runtime of any algorithm in our framework. 2. Inference-time exploration: We introduce a new algorithm, SpannerSampling, which obtains optimal data efficiency and is computationally efficient whenever the pre-trained model enjoys sufficient coverage, matching our lower bound. SpannerSampling leverages inference-time computation with the pre-trained model to reduce the effective search space for exploration. 3. Insufficiency of training-time interventions: We contrast the result above by showing that training-time interventions that produce proper policies cannot achieve similar guarantees in polynomial time. 4. Computational benefits of multi-turn exploration: Finally, we show that under additional representational assumptions, one can achieve improved runtime (replacing sequence-level coverage with token-level coverage) through multi-turn exploration.