We consider a PAC-Bayes type learning rule for binary classification, balancing the training error of a randomized ''posterior'' predictor with its KL divergence to a pre-specified ''prior''. This can be seen as an extension of a modified two-part-code Minimum Description Length (MDL) learning rule, to continuous priors and randomized predictions. With a balancing parameter of $λ=1$ this learning rule recovers an (empirical) Bayes posterior and a modified variant recovers the profile posterior, linking with standard Bayesian prediction (up to the treatment of the single-parameter noise level). However, from a risk-minimization prediction perspective, this Bayesian predictor overfits and can lead to non-vanishing excess loss in the agnostic case. Instead a choice of $λ\gg 1$, which can be seen as using a sample-size-dependent-prior, ensures uniformly vanishing excess loss even in the agnostic case. We precisely characterize the effect of under-regularizing (and over-regularizing) as a function of the balance parameter $λ$, understanding the regimes in which this under-regularization is tempered or catastrophic. This work extends previous work by Zhu and Srebro [2025] that considered only discrete priors to PAC Bayes type learning rules and, through their rigorous Bayesian interpretation, to Bayesian prediction more generally.

Social insect colonies and ensemble machine learning methods represent two of the most successful examples of decentralized information processing in nature and computation respectively. Here we develop a rigorous mathematical framework demonstrating that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning are isomorphic under a common formalism of \textbf{stochastic ensemble intelligence}. We show that the mechanisms by which genetically identical ants achieve functional differentiation -- through stochastic response to local cues and positive feedback -- map precisely onto the bootstrap aggregation and random feature subsampling that decorrelate decision trees. Using tools from Bayesian inference, multi-armed bandit theory, and statistical learning theory, we prove that both systems implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units. We derive explicit mappings between ant recruitment rates and tree weightings, pheromone trail reinforcement and out-of-bag error estimation, and quorum sensing and prediction averaging. This isomorphism suggests that collective intelligence, whether biological or artificial, emerges from a universal principle: \textbf{randomized identical agents + diversity-enforcing mechanisms $\rightarrow$ emergent optimality}.

Generating samples from a continuous probability density is a central algorithmic problem across statistics, engineering, and the sciences. For high-dimensional settings, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is the default algorithm across mainstream software packages. However, despite the extensive line of work on HMC and its widespread empirical success, it remains unclear how many iterations of HMC are required as a function of the dimension $d$. On one hand, a variety of results show that Metropolized HMC converges in $O(d^{1/4})$ iterations from a warm start close to stationarity. On the other hand, Metropolized HMC is significantly slower without a warm start, e.g., requiring $Ω(d^{1/2})$ iterations even for simple target distributions such as isotropic Gaussians. Finding a warm start is therefore the computational bottleneck for HMC. We resolve this issue for the well-studied setting of sampling from a probability distribution satisfying strong log-concavity (or isoperimetry) and third-order derivative bounds. We prove that \emph{non-Metropolized} HMC generates a warm start in $\tilde{O}(d^{1/4})$ iterations, after which we can exploit the warm start using Metropolized HMC. Our final complexity of $\tilde{O}(d^{1/4})$ is the fastest algorithm for high-accuracy sampling under these assumptions, improving over the prior best of $\tilde{O}(d^{1/2})$. This closes the long line of work on the dimensional complexity of MHMC for such settings, and also provides a simple warm-start prescription for practical implementations.

Preference-based fine-tuning has become an important component in training large language models, and the data used at this stage may contain sensitive user information. A central question is how to design a differentially private pipeline that is well suited to the distinct structure of reinforcement learning from human feedback. We propose a privacy-preserving framework that imposes differential privacy only on reward learning and derives the final policy from the resulting private reward model. Theoretically, we study the suboptimality gap and show that privacy contributes an additional additive term beyond the usual non-private statistical error. We also establish a minimax lower bound and show that the dominant term changes with sample size and privacy level, which in turn characterizes regimes in which the upper bound is rate-optimal up to logarithmic factors. Empirically, synthetic experiments confirm the scaling predicted by the theory, and experiments on the Anthropic HH-RLHF dataset using the Gemma-2B-IT model show stronger private alignment performance than existing differentially private baseline methods across privacy budgets.

Optimizing survival outcomes, such as patient survival or customer retention, is a critical objective in data-driven decision-making. Off-Policy Evaluation~(OPE) provides a powerful framework for assessing such decision-making policies using logged data alone, without the need for costly or risky online experiments in high-stakes applications. However, typical estimators are not designed to handle right-censored survival outcomes, as they ignore unobserved survival times beyond the censoring time, leading to systematic underestimation of the true policy performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework for OPE and Off-Policy Learning~(OPL) tailored for survival outcomes under censoring. Specifically, we introduce IPCW-IPS and IPCW-DR, which employ the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting technique to explicitly deal with censoring bias. We theoretically establish that our estimators are unbiased and that IPCW-DR achieves double robustness, ensuring consistency if either the propensity score or the outcome model is correct. Furthermore, we extend this framework to constrained OPL to optimize policy value under budget constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate their practical impacts using public real-world data for both evaluation and learning tasks.

Achieving valid conditional coverage in conformal prediction is challenging due to the theoretical difficulty of satisfying pointwise constraints in finite samples. Building upon the characterization of conditional coverage through marginal moment restrictions, we introduce Minimax Optimization Predictive Inference (MOPI), a framework that generalizes prior work by optimizing over a flexible class of set-valued mappings during the calibration phase, rather than simply calibrating a fixed sublevel set. This minimax formulation effectively circumvents the structural constraints of predefined score functions, achieving superior shape adaptivity while maintaining a principled connection to the minimization of mean squared coverage error. Theoretically, we provide non-asymptotic oracle inequalities and show that the convergence rate of the coverage error attains the optimal order under regular conditions. The MOPI also enables valid inference conditional on sensitive attributes that are available during calibration but unobserved at test time. Empirical results on complex, non-standard conditional distributions demonstrate that MOPI produces more efficient prediction sets than existing baselines.

Implicit bias induced by gradient-based algorithms is essential to the generalization of overparameterized models, yet its mechanisms can be subtle. This work leverages the Normalized Steepest Descent} (NSD) framework to investigate how optimization geometry shapes solutions on multiclass separable data. We introduce NucGD, a geometry-aware optimizer designed to enforce low rank structures through nuclear norm constraints. Beyond the algorithm itself, we connect NucGD with emerging low-rank projection methods, providing a unified perspective. To enable scalable training, we derive an efficient SVD-free update rule via asynchronous power iteration. Furthermore, we empirically dissect the impact of stochastic optimization dynamics, characterizing how varying levels of gradient noise induced by mini-batch sampling and momentum modulate the convergence toward the expected maximum margin solutions.Our code is accessible at: https://github.com/Tsokarsic/observing-the-implicit-bias-on-multiclass-seperable-data.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) with neural networks has accelerated and transformed cognitive modeling workflows. SBI enables modelers to fit complex models that were previously difficult or impossible to estimate, while also allowing rapid estimation across large numbers of datasets. However, the utility of SBI for iterating over varying modeling assumptions remains limited: changing parameterizations, generative functions, priors, and design variables all necessitate model retraining and hence diminish the benefits of amortization. To address these issues, we pilot a meta-amortized framework for cognitive modeling which we nickname the CogFormer. Our framework trains a transformer-based architecture that remains valid across a combinatorial number of structurally similar models, allowing for changing data types, parameters, design matrices, and sample sizes. We present promising quantitative results across families of decision-making models for binary, multi-alternative, and continuous responses. Our evaluation suggests that CogFormer can accurately estimate parameters across model families with a minimal amortization offset, making it a potentially powerful engine that catalyzes cognitive modeling workflows.

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear. Standard instrumental variables (IV) estimators, such as two-stage least squares (2SLS), become unreliable when instrument validity requires flexibly conditioning on many covariates with potentially non-linear effects. This paper develops a Double Machine Learning estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML), and introduces weak-identification diagnostics for it. We revisit three influential migration studies that use shift-share instruments. In these settings, instrument validity depends on a rich covariate adjustment. In one application, panel IV DML strengthens the predictive power of the instrument and broadly confirms 2SLS results. In the other cases, flexible adjustment makes the instruments weak, leading to substantially more cautious causal inference than conventional 2SLS. Monte Carlo evidence supports these findings, showing that panel IV DML improves estimation accuracy under strong instruments and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.

Causal representation learning (CRL) aims to learn low-dimensional causal latent variables from high-dimensional observations. While identifiability has been extensively studied for CRL, estimation has been less explored. In this paper, we explore the use of empirical Bayes (EB) to estimate causal representations. In particular, we consider the problem of learning from data from multiple domains, where differences between domains are modeled by interventions in a shared underlying causal model. Multi-domain CRL naturally poses a simultaneous inference problem that EB is designed to tackle. Here, we propose an EB $f$-modeling algorithm that improves the quality of learned causal variables by exploiting invariant structure within and across domains. Specifically, we consider a linear measurement model and interventional priors arising from a shared acyclic SCM. When the graph and intervention targets are known, we develop an EM-style algorithm based on causally structured score matching. We further discuss EB $g$-modeling in the context of existing CRL approaches. In experiments on synthetic data, our proposed method achieves more accurate estimation than other methods for CRL.