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 Statistical Learning


Using machine learning to measure evidence of students' sensemaking in physics courses

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Teaching and instruction in undergraduate physics courses has largely relied on problem-solving as the standard method to measure student performance [1-6]. Common practice is for "real-time" performance to be measured via multiple-choice or single-solution problems, where canonically correct answers determine the student's knowledge of the core material. Accuracy scores across assignments and examinations, typically coupled with letter grades, act as signals of progress throughout the course as well as final verdicts of student success. While engaging in problem-solving is a useful experience for students in a physics classroom, using the problem solution as a measure of student learning assumes a direct correlation that may not always hold. Problem-solving accuracy as a measurand assumes that students will engage in a learning process involving the core material to obtain the problem solution. Often times, there are alternative strategies for obtaining a problem solution such as rote-memorization of the rules or procedures required for solving similar problem types [7]. In this scenario, students would score very high on exams that contain these problem types; however given a previously unseen problem structure where the same core material is to be applied, the students would struggle. Here, a risk of using problem-solving accuracy as the predominant metric is an inflated sense of confidence in both the instructor and the student that the core material has been learned. It could also pose a risk for confounding variables in research studies that aim to investigate how instructional techniques influence student learning [8-12].


A Vehicle-Infrastructure Multi-layer Cooperative Decision-making Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous driving has entered the testing phase, but due to the limited decision-making capabilities of individual vehicle algorithms, safety and efficiency issues have become more apparent in complex scenarios. With the advancement of connected communication technologies, autonomous vehicles equipped with connectivity can leverage vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications, offering a potential solution to the decision-making challenges from individual vehicle's perspective. We propose a multi-level vehicle-infrastructure cooperative decision-making framework for complex conflict scenarios at unsignalized intersections. First, based on vehicle states, we define a method for quantifying vehicle impacts and their propagation relationships, using accumulated impact to group vehicles through motif-based graph clustering. Next, within and between vehicle groups, a pass order negotiation process based on Large Language Models (LLM) is employed to determine the vehicle passage order, resulting in planned vehicle actions. Simulation results from ablation experiments show that our approach reduces negotiation complexity and ensures safer, more efficient vehicle passage at intersections, aligning with natural decision-making logic.


Technical Report: Aggregation on Learnable Manifolds for Asynchronous Federated Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Federated Learning (FL), a primary challenge to the server-side aggregation of client models is device heterogeneity in both loss landscape geometry and computational capacity. This issue can be particularly pronounced in clinical contexts where variations in data distribution (aggravated by class imbalance), infrastructure requirements, and sample sizes are common. We propose AsyncManifold, a novel asynchronous FL framework to address these issues by taking advantage of underlying solution space geometry at each of the local training, delay-correction, and aggregation stages. Our proposal is accompanied by a convergence proof in a general form and, motivated through exploratory studies of local behaviour, a proof-of-concept algorithm which performs aggregation along non-linear mode connections and hence avoids barriers to convergence that techniques based on linear interpolation will encounter.


Temporal Encoding Strategies for Energy Time Series Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In contemporary power systems, energy consumption prediction plays a crucial role in maintaining grid stability and resource allocation enabling power companies to minimize energy waste and avoid overloading the grid. While there are several research works on energy optimization, they often fail to address the complexities of real-time fluctuations and the cyclic pattern of energy consumption. This work proposes a novel approach to enhance the accuracy of predictive models by employing sinusoidal encoding on periodic features of time-series data. To demonstrate the increase in performance, several statistical and ensemble machine learning models were trained on an energy demand dataset, using the proposed sinusoidal encoding. The performance of these models was then benchmarked against identical models trained on traditional encoding methods. The results demonstrated a 12.6% improvement of Root Mean Squared Error (from 0.5497 to 0.4802) and a 7.8% increase in the R^2 score (from 0.7530 to 0.8118), indicating that the proposed encoding better captures the cyclic nature of temporal patterns than traditional methods. The proposed methodology significantly improves prediction accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency, making it suitable for real-time applications in smart grid systems.


Global Group Fairness in Federated Learning via Function Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate group fairness regularizers in federated learning, aiming to train a globally fair model in a distributed setting. Ensuring global fairness in distributed training presents unique challenges, as fairness regularizers typically involve probability metrics between distributions across all clients and are not naturally separable by client. To address this, we introduce a function-tracking scheme for the global fairness regularizer based on a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), which incurs a small communication overhead. This scheme seamlessly integrates into most federated learning algorithms while preserving rigorous convergence guarantees, as demonstrated in the context of FedAvg. Additionally, when enforcing differential privacy, the kernel-based MMD regularization enables straightforward analysis through a change of kernel, leveraging an intuitive interpretation of kernel convolution. Numerical experiments confirm our theoretical insights.


Attention Pruning: Automated Fairness Repair of Language Models via Surrogate Simulated Annealing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores pruning attention heads as a post-processing bias mitigation method for large language models (LLMs). Modern AI systems such as LLMs are expanding into sensitive social contexts where fairness concerns become especially crucial. Since LLMs develop decision-making patterns by training on massive datasets of human-generated content, they naturally encode and perpetuate societal biases. While modifying training datasets and algorithms is expensive and requires significant resources; post-processing techniques-such as selectively deactivating neurons and attention heads in pre-trained LLMs-can provide feasible and effective approaches to improve fairness. However, identifying the optimal subset of parameters to prune presents a combinatorial challenge within LLMs' immense parameter space, requiring solutions that efficiently balance competing objectives across the frontiers of model fairness and utility. To address the computational challenges, we explore a search-based program repair approach via randomized simulated annealing. Given the prohibitive evaluation costs in billion-parameter LLMs, we develop surrogate deep neural networks that efficiently model the relationship between attention head states (active/inactive) and their corresponding fairness/utility metrics. This allows us to perform optimization over the surrogate models and efficiently identify optimal subsets of attention heads for selective pruning rather than directly searching through the LLM parameter space. This paper introduces Attention Pruning, a fairness-aware surrogate simulated annealing approach to prune attention heads in LLMs that disproportionately contribute to bias while minimally impacting overall model utility. Our experiments show that Attention Pruning achieves up to $40\%$ reduction in gender bias and outperforms the state-of-the-art bias mitigation strategies.


Exploring the Limits of KV Cache Compression in Visual Autoregressive Transformers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A fundamental challenge in Visual Autoregressive models is the substantial memory overhead required during inference to store previously generated representations. Despite various attempts to mitigate this issue through compression techniques, prior works have not explicitly formalized the problem of KV-cache compression in this context. In this work, we take the first step in formally defining the KV-cache compression problem for Visual Autoregressive transformers. We then establish a fundamental negative result, proving that any mechanism for sequential visual token generation under attention-based architectures must use at least $\Omega(n^2 d)$ memory, when $d = \Omega(\log n)$, where $n$ is the number of tokens generated and $d$ is the embedding dimensionality. This result demonstrates that achieving truly sub-quadratic memory usage is impossible without additional structural constraints. Our proof is constructed via a reduction from a computational lower bound problem, leveraging randomized embedding techniques inspired by dimensionality reduction principles. Finally, we discuss how sparsity priors on visual representations can influence memory efficiency, presenting both impossibility results and potential directions for mitigating memory overhead.


Disentangling Uncertainties by Learning Compressed Data Representation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for downstream tasks such as risk-aware control and reinforcement learning, efficient exploration, and robust policy transfer. While existing approaches like Gaussian Processes, Bayesian networks, and model ensembles are widely adopted, they suffer from either high computational complexity or inaccurate uncertainty estimation. To address these limitations, we propose the Compressed Data Representation Model (CDRM), a framework that learns a neural network encoding of the data distribution and enables direct sampling from the output distribution. Our approach incorporates a novel inference procedure based on Langevin dynamics sampling, allowing CDRM to predict arbitrary output distributions rather than being constrained to a Gaussian prior. Theoretical analysis provides the conditions where CDRM achieves better memory and computational complexity compared to bin-based compression methods. Empirical evaluations show that CDRM demonstrates a superior capability to identify aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties separately, achieving AUROCs of 0.8876 and 0.9981 on a single test set containing a mixture of both uncertainties. Qualitative results further show that CDRM's capability extends to datasets with multimodal output distributions, a challenging scenario where existing methods consistently fail. Code and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/ryeii/CDRM.


Scalable Trajectory-User Linking with Dual-Stream Representation Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory-user linking (TUL) aims to match anonymous trajectories to the most likely users who generated them, offering benefits for a wide range of real-world spatio-temporal applications. However, existing TUL methods are limited by high model complexity and poor learning of the effective representations of trajectories, rendering them ineffective in handling large-scale user trajectory data. In this work, we propose a novel $\underline{Scal}$abl$\underline{e}$ Trajectory-User Linking with dual-stream representation networks for large-scale $\underline{TUL}$ problem, named ScaleTUL. Specifically, ScaleTUL generates two views using temporal and spatial augmentations to exploit supervised contrastive learning framework to effectively capture the irregularities of trajectories. In each view, a dual-stream trajectory encoder, consisting of a long-term encoder and a short-term encoder, is designed to learn unified trajectory representations that fuse different temporal-spatial dependencies. Then, a TUL layer is used to associate the trajectories with the corresponding users in the representation space using a two-stage training model. Experimental results on check-in mobility datasets from three real-world cities and the nationwide U.S. demonstrate the superiority of ScaleTUL over state-of-the-art baselines for large-scale TUL tasks.


Representational Similarity via Interpretable Visual Concepts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How do two deep neural networks differ in how they arrive at a decision? Measuring the similarity of deep networks has been a long-standing open question. Most existing methods provide a single number to measure the similarity of two networks at a given layer, but give no insight into what makes them similar or dissimilar. We introduce an interpretable representational similarity method (RSVC) to compare two networks. We use RSVC to discover shared and unique visual concepts between two models. We show that some aspects of model differences can be attributed to unique concepts discovered by one model that are not well represented in the other. Finally, we conduct extensive evaluation across different vision model architectures and training protocols to demonstrate its effectiveness.