The analysis of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) often relies on making some assumption on the variance of the stochastic gradients, which is usually not satisfied or difficult to verify in practice. This paper contributes to a recent line of works which attempt to provide guarantees without making any variance assumption, leveraging only the (strong) convexity and smoothness of the loss functions. In this context, we prove new theoretical bounds derived from the monotonicity of a simple Lyapunov energy, improving the current state-of-the-art and extending their validity to larger step-sizes. Our theoretical analysis is backed by a Performance Estimation Problem analysis, which allows us to claim that, empirically, the bias term in our bounds is tight within our framework.

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged--rather than directly assigned--via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance variability. Leveraging this insight, we introduce AMRIV--an \textbf{A}daptive, \textbf{M}ultiply-\textbf{R}obust estimator for \textbf{I}nstrumental-\textbf{V}ariable settings with variance-optimal assignment. AMRIV pairs (i) an online policy that adaptively approximates the optimal allocation with (ii) a sequential, influence-function-based estimator that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound while retaining multiply-robust consistency. We establish asymptotic normality, explicit convergence rates, and anytime-valid asymptotic confidence sequences that enable sequential inference. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our approach through empirical studies, showing that adaptive instrument assignment, when combined with the AMRIV estimator, yields improved efficiency and robustness compared to existing baselines.

The Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) is one of the simplest generative neural networks capable of learning input distributions. Despite its simplicity, the analysis of its performance in learning from the training data is only well understood in cases that essentially reduce to singular value decomposition of the data. Here, we consider the limit of a large dimension of the input space and a constant number of hidden units. In this limit, we simplify the standard RBM training objective into a form that is equivalent to the multi-index model with non-separable regularization. This opens a path to analyze training of the RBM using methods that are established for multi-index models, such as Approximate Message Passing (AMP) and its state evolution, and the analysis of Gradient Descent (GD) via the dynamical mean-field theory. We then give rigorous asymptotics of the training dynamics of RBM on data generated by the spiked covariance model as a prototype of a structure suitable for unsupervised learning. We show in particular that RBM reaches the optimal computational weak recovery threshold, aligning with the BBP transition, in the spiked covariance model.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) models constitute a widely utilized class of ensemble learning approaches in statistics and machine learning, known for their flexibility and computational efficiency. They have become integral components in numerous state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures, particularly for analyzing heterogeneous data across diverse domains. Despite their practical success, the theoretical understanding of model selection, especially concerning the optimal number of mixture components or experts, remains limited and poses significant challenges. These challenges primarily stem from the inclusion of covariates in both the Gaussian gating functions and expert networks, which introduces intrinsic interactions governed by partial differential equations with respect to their parameters. In this paper, we revisit the concept of dendrograms of mixing measures and introduce a novel extension to Gaussian-gated Gaussian MoE models that enables consistent estimation of the true number of mixture components and achieves the pointwise optimal convergence rate for parameter estimation in overfitted scenarios. Notably, this approach circumvents the need to train and compare a range of models with varying numbers of components, thereby alleviating the computational burden, particularly in high-dimensional or deep neural network settings. Experimental results on synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in accurately recovering the number of experts. It outperforms common criteria such as the Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the integrated completed likelihood, while achieving optimal convergence rates for parameter estimation and accurately approximating the regression function.

We consider the problem of solving the optimal transport problem between two empirical distributions with missing values. Our main assumption is that the data is missing completely at random (MCAR), but we allow for heterogeneous missingness probabilities across features and across the two distributions. As a first contribution, we show that the Wasserstein distance between empirical Gaussian distributions and linear Monge maps between arbitrary distributions can be debiased without significantly affecting the sample complexity. Secondly, we show that entropic regularized optimal transport can be estimated efficiently and consistently using iterative singular value thresholding (ISVT). We propose a validation set-free hyperparameter selection strategy for ISVT that leverages our estimator of the Bures-Wasserstein distance, which could be of independent interest in general matrix completion problems. Finally, we validate our findings on a wide range of numerical applications.

The quality of foundation models depends heavily on their training data. Consequently, great efforts have been put into dataset curation. Yet most approaches rely on manual tuning of coarse-grained mixtures of large buckets of data, or filtering by hand-crafted heuristics. An approach that is ultimately more scalable (let alone more satisfying) is to \emph{learn} which data is actually valuable for training. This type of meta-learning could allow more sophisticated, fine-grained, and effective curation. Our proposed \emph{DataRater} is an instance of this idea. It estimates the value of training on any particular data point. This is done by meta-learning using `meta-gradients', with the objective of improving training efficiency on held out data. In extensive experiments across a range of model scales and datasets, we find that using our DataRater to filter data is highly effective, resulting in significantly improved compute efficiency.

We propose a regularization framework inspired by thermodynamic work for guiding pre-trained probability flow generative models (e.g., continuous normalizing flows or diffusion models) by minimizing excess work, a concept rooted in statistical mechanics and with strong conceptual connections to optimal transport. Our approach enables efficient guidance in sparse-data regimes common to scientific applications, where only limited target samples or partial density constraints are available. We introduce two strategies: Path Guidance for sampling rare transition states by concentrating probability mass on user-defined subsets, and Observable Guidance for aligning generated distributions with experimental observables while preserving entropy. We demonstrate the framework's versatility on a coarse-grained protein model, guiding it to sample transition configurations between folded/unfolded states and correct systematic biases using experimental data. The method bridges thermodynamic principles with modern generative architectures, offering a principled, efficient, and physics-inspired alternative to standard fine-tuning in data-scarce domains. Empirical results highlight improved sample efficiency and bias reduction, underscoring its applicability to molecular simulations and beyond.

We study the stochastic linear bandit problem with multiple arms over $T$ rounds, where the covariate dimension $d$ may exceed $T$, but each arm-specific parameter vector is $s$-sparse. We begin by analyzing the sequential estimation problem in the single-arm setting, focusing on cumulative mean-squared error. We show that Lasso estimators are provably suboptimal in the sequential setting, exhibiting suboptimal dependence on $d$ and $T$, whereas thresholded Lasso estimators -- obtained by applying least squares to the support selected by thresholding an initial Lasso estimator -- achieve the minimax rate. Building on these insights, we consider the full linear contextual bandit problem and propose a three-stage arm selection algorithm that uses thresholded Lasso as the main estimation method. We derive an upper bound on the cumulative regret of order $s(\log s)(\log d + \log T)$, and establish a matching lower bound up to a $\log s$ factor, thereby characterizing the minimax regret rate up to a logarithmic term in $s$. Moreover, when a short initial period is excluded from the regret, the proposed algorithm achieves exact minimax optimality.

We investigate the theoretical foundations of data poisoning attacks in machine learning models. Our analysis reveals that the Hessian with respect to the input serves as a diagnostic tool for detecting poisoning, exhibiting spectral signatures that characterize compromised datasets. We use random matrix theory (RMT) to develop a theory for the impact of poisoning proportion and regularisation on attack efficacy in linear regression. Through QR stepwise regression, we study the spectral signatures of the Hessian in multi-output regression. We perform experiments on deep networks to show experimentally that this theory extends to modern convolutional and transformer networks under the cross-entropy loss. Based on these insights we develop preliminary algorithms to determine if a network has been poisoned and remedies which do not require further training.

Recent work on backpropagation-free learning has shown that it is possible to use forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD) to perform optimization on differentiable models. Forward-mode AD requires sampling a tangent vector for each forward pass of a model. The result is the model evaluation with the directional derivative along the tangent. In this paper, we illustrate how the sampling of this tangent vector can be incorporated into the proposal mechanism for the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA). As such, we are the first to introduce a backpropagation-free gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We also extend to a novel backpropagation-free position-specific preconditioned forward-mode MALA that leverages Hessian information. Overall, we propose four new algorithms: Forward MALA; Line Forward MALA; Pre-conditioned Forward MALA, and Pre-conditioned Line Forward MALA. We highlight the reduced computational cost of the forward-mode samplers and show that forward-mode is competitive with the original MALA, while even outperforming it depending on the probabilistic model. We include Bayesian inference results on a range of probabilistic models, including hierarchical distributions and Bayesian neural networks.