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 Statistical Learning


Enhancing Black-Litterman Portfolio via Hybrid Forecasting Model Combining Multivariate Decomposition and Noise Reduction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern portfolio construction demands robust methods for integrating data-driven insights into asset allocation. The Black-Litterman model offers a powerful Bayesian approach to adjust equilibrium returns using investor views to form a posterior expectation along with market priors. Mainstream research mainly generates subjective views through statistical models or machine learning methods, among which hybrid models combined with decomposition algorithms perform well. However, most hybrid models do not pay enough attention to noise, and time series decomposition methods based on single variables make it difficult to fully utilize information between multiple variables. Multivariate decomposition also has problems of low efficiency and poor component quality. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid forecasting model SSA-MAEMD-TCN to automate and improve the view generation process. The proposed model combines Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for denoising, Multivariate Aligned Empirical Mode Decomposition (MA-EMD) for frequency-aligned decomposition, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs) for deep sequence learning to capture complex temporal patterns across multiple financial indicators. Empirical tests on the Nasdaq 100 Index stocks show a significant improvement in forecasting performance compared to baseline models based on MAEMD and MEMD. The optimized portfolio performs well, with annualized returns and Sharpe ratios far exceeding those of the traditional portfolio over a short holding period, even after accounting for transaction costs.


FedHERO: A Federated Learning Approach for Node Classification Task on Heterophilic Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated Graph Learning (FGL) empowers clients to collaboratively train Graph neural networks (GNNs) in a distributed manner while preserving data privacy. However, FGL methods usually require that the graph data owned by all clients is homophilic to ensure similar neighbor distribution patterns of nodes. Such an assumption ensures that the learned knowledge is consistent across the local models from all clients. Therefore, these local models can be properly aggregated as a global model without undermining the overall performance. Nevertheless, when the neighbor distribution patterns of nodes vary across different clients (e.g., when clients hold graphs with different levels of heterophily), their local models may gain different and even conflict knowledge from their node-level predictive tasks. Consequently, aggregating these local models usually leads to catastrophic performance deterioration on the global model. To address this challenge, we propose FedHERO, an FGL framework designed to harness and share insights from heterophilic graphs effectively. At the heart of FedHERO is a dual-channel GNN equipped with a structure learner, engineered to discern the structural knowledge encoded in the local graphs. With this specialized component, FedHERO enables the local model for each client to identify and learn patterns that are universally applicable across graphs with different patterns of node neighbor distributions. FedHERO not only enhances the performance of individual client models by leveraging both local and shared structural insights but also sets a new precedent in this field to effectively handle graph data with various node neighbor distribution patterns. We conduct extensive experiments to validate the superior performance of FedHERO against existing alternatives.


Heterogeneous networks in drug-target interaction prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

D rug discovery requires a tremendous amount of time and cost. Computational drug - target interaction prediction, a n important part of this process, can reduce these requirements by narrowing the search space for wet lab experiments. In this survey, we provid e comprehensive details of graph machine learning - based methods in predicting drug - target interaction, as they have shown promising results in this field. These details include the overall framework, main contribution, dataset s, and their source code s . The selected papers were mainly published from 2020 to 2024 . Prior to discussing papers, we briefly introduce the datasets commonly used with these methods and measurements to assess their performance. Finally, future challenges and some crucial areas that need to be explored are discussed.


Using Time Structure to Estimate Causal Effects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There exist several approaches for estimating causal effects in time series when latent confounding is present. Many of these approaches rely on additional auxiliary observed variables or time series such as instruments, negative controls or time series that satisfy the front- or backdoor criterion in certain graphs. In this paper, we present a novel approach for estimating direct (and via Wright's path rule total) causal effects in a time series setup which does not rely on additional auxiliary observed variables or time series. This approach assumes that the underlying time series is a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) process and estimates direct causal effects by solving certain linear equation systems made up of different covariances and model parameters. We state sufficient graphical criteria in terms of the so-called full time graph under which these linear equations systems are uniquely solvable and under which their solutions contain the to-be-identified direct causal effects as components. We also state sufficient lag-based criteria under which the previously mentioned graphical conditions are satisfied and, thus, under which direct causal effects are identifiable. Several numerical experiments underline the correctness and applicability of our results.


An Introductory Survey to Autoencoder-based Deep Clustering -- Sandboxes for Combining Clustering with Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autoencoders offer a general way of learning low-dimensional, non-linear representations from data without labels. This is achieved without making any particular assumptions about the data type or other domain knowledge. The generality and domain agnosticism in combination with their simplicity make autoencoders a perfect sandbox for researching and developing novel (deep) clustering algorithms. Clustering methods group data based on similarity, a task that benefits from the lower-dimensional representation learned by an autoencoder, mitigating the curse of dimensionality. Specifically, the combination of deep learning with clustering, called Deep Clustering, enables to learn a representation tailored to specific clustering tasks, leading to high-quality results. This survey provides an introduction to fundamental autoencoder-based deep clustering algorithms that serve as building blocks for many modern approaches.


Continuous Multi-Task Pre-training for Malicious URL Detection and Webpage Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Malicious URL detection and webpage classification are critical tasks in cybersecurity and information management. In recent years, extensive research has explored using BERT or similar language models to replace traditional machine learning methods for detecting malicious URLs and classifying webpages. While previous studies show promising results, they often apply existing language models to these tasks without accounting for the inherent differences in domain data (e.g., URLs being loosely structured and semantically sparse compared to text), leaving room for performance improvement. Furthermore, current approaches focus on single tasks and have not been tested in multi-task scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose urlBERT, a pre-trained URL encoder leveraging Transformer to encode foundational knowledge from billions of unlabeled URLs. To achieve it, we propose to use 5 unsupervised pretraining tasks to capture multi-level information of URL lexical, syntax, and semantics, and generate contrastive and adversarial representations. Furthermore, to avoid inter-pre-training competition and interference, we proposed a grouped sequential learning method to ensure effective training across multi-tasks. Finally, we leverage a two-stage fine-tuning approach to improve the training stability and efficiency of the task model. To assess the multitasking potential of urlBERT, we fine-tune the task model in both single-task and multi-task modes. The former creates a classification model for a single task, while the latter builds a classification model capable of handling multiple tasks. We evaluate urlBERT on three downstream tasks: phishing URL detection, advertising URL detection, and webpage classification. The results demonstrate that urlBERT outperforms standard pre-trained models, and its multi-task mode is capable of addressing the real-world demands of multitasking.


Graph Neural Networks for Knowledge Enhanced Visual Representation of Paintings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose ArtSAGENet, a novel multimodal architecture that integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), to jointly learn visual and semantic-based artistic representations. First, we illustrate the significant advantages of multi-task learning for fine art analysis and argue that it is conceptually a much more appropriate setting in the fine art domain than the single-task alternatives. We further demonstrate that several GNN architectures can outperform strong CNN baselines in a range of fine art analysis tasks, such as style classification, artist attribution, creation period estimation, and tag prediction, while training them requires an order of magnitude less computational time and only a small amount of labeled data. Finally, through extensive experimentation we show that our proposed ArtSAGENet captures and encodes valuable relational dependencies between the artists and the artworks, surpassing the performance of traditional methods that rely solely on the analysis of visual content. Our findings underline a great potential of integrating visual content and semantics for fine art analysis and curation.


Hard Negative Mining for Domain-Specific Retrieval in Enterprise Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Enterprise search systems often struggle to retrieve accurate, domain-specific information due to semantic mismatches and overlapping terminologies. These issues can degrade the performance of downstream applications such as knowledge management, customer support, and retrieval-augmented generation agents. To address this challenge, we propose a scalable hard-negative mining framework tailored specifically for domain-specific enterprise data. Our approach dynamically selects semantically challenging but contextually irrelevant documents to enhance deployed re-ranking models. Our method integrates diverse embedding models, performs dimensionality reduction, and uniquely selects hard negatives, ensuring computational efficiency and semantic precision. Evaluation on our proprietary enterprise corpus (cloud services domain) demonstrates substantial improvements of 15\% in MRR@3 and 19\% in MRR@10 compared to state-of-the-art baselines and other negative sampling techniques. Further validation on public domain-specific datasets (FiQA, Climate Fever, TechQA) confirms our method's generalizability and readiness for real-world applications.


Towards a Quantum-classical Augmented Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the past decade, several small-scale quantum key distribution networks have been established. However, the deployment of large-scale quantum networks depends on the development of quantum repeaters, quantum channels, quantum memories, and quantum network protocols. To improve the security of existing networks and adopt currently feasible quantum technologies, the next step is to augment classical networks with quantum devices, properties, and phenomena. To achieve this, we propose a change in the structure of the HTTP protocol such that it can carry both quantum and classical payload. This work lays the foundation for dividing one single network packet into classical and quantum payloads depending on the privacy needs. We implement logistic regression, CNN, LSTM, and BiLSTM models to classify the privacy label for outgoing communications. This enables reduced utilization of quantum resources allowing for a more efficient secure quantum network design. Experimental results using the proposed methods are presented.


Decomposition of Water Demand Patterns Using Skewed Gaussian Distributions for Behavioral Insights and Operational Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents a novel approach for decomposing urban water demand patterns using Skewed Gaussian Distributions (SGD) to derive behavioral insights and support operational planning. Hourly demand profiles contain critical information for both long-term infrastructure design and daily operations, influencing network pressures, water quality, energy consumption, and overall reliability. By breaking down each daily demand curve into a baseline component and distinct peak components, the proposed SGD method characterizes each peak with interpretable parameters, including peak amplitude, timing (mean), spread (duration), and skewness (asymmetry), thereby reconstructing the observed pattern and uncovering latent usage dynamics. This detailed peak-level decomposition enables both operational applications, e.g. anomaly and leakage detection, real-time demand management, and strategic analyses, e.g. identifying behavioral shifts, seasonal influences, or policy impacts on consumption patterns. Unlike traditional symmetric Gaussian or purely statistical time-series models, SGDs explicitly capture asymmetric peak shapes such as sharp morning surges followed by gradual declines, improving the fidelity of synthetic pattern generation and enhancing the detection of irregular consumption behavior. The method is demonstrated on several real-world datasets, showing that SGD outperforms symmetric Gaussian models in reconstruction accuracy, reducing root-mean-square error by over 50% on average, while maintaining physical interpretability. The SGD framework can also be used to construct synthetic demand scenarios by designing daily peak profiles with chosen characteristics. All implementation code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Relkayam/water-demand-decomposition-sgd