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 Statistical Learning


Complexity of normalized stochastic first-order methods with momentum under heavy-tailed noise

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we propose practical normalized stochastic first-order methods with Polyak momentum, multi-extrapolated momentum, and recursive momentum for solving unconstrained optimization problems. These methods employ dynamically updated algorithmic parameters and do not require explicit knowledge of problem-dependent quantities such as the Lipschitz constant or noise bound. We establish first-order oracle complexity results for finding approximate stochastic stationary points under heavy-tailed noise and weakly average smoothness conditions -- both of which are weaker than the commonly used bounded variance and mean-squared smoothness assumptions. Our complexity bounds either improve upon or match the best-known results in the literature. Numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed methods.


Time-Varying Home Field Advantage in Football: Learning from a Non-Stationary Causal Process

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In sports analytics, home field advantage is a robust phenomenon where the home team wins more games than the away team. However, discovering the causal factors behind home field advantage presents unique challenges due to the non-stationary, time-varying environment of sports matches. In response, we propose a novel causal discovery method, DYnamic Non-stAtionary local M-estimatOrs (DYNAMO), to learn the time-varying causal structures of home field advantage. DYNAMO offers flexibility by integrating various loss functions, making it practical for learning linear and non-linear causal structures from a general class of non-stationary causal processes. By leveraging local information, we provide theoretical guarantees for the identifiability and estimation consistency of non-stationary causal structures without imposing additional assumptions. Simulation studies validate the efficacy of DYNAMO in recovering time-varying causal structures. We apply our method to high-resolution event data from the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 English Premier League seasons, during which the former season had no audience presence. Our results reveal intriguing, time-varying, team-specific field advantages influenced by referee bias, which differ significantly with and without crowd support. Furthermore, the time-varying causal structures learned by our method improve goal prediction accuracy compared to existing methods.


Generalization Bound of Gradient Flow through Training Trajectory and Data-dependent Kernel

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gradient-based optimization methods have shown remarkable empirical success, yet their theoretical generalization properties remain only partially understood. In this paper, we establish a generalization bound for gradient flow that aligns with the classical Rademacher complexity bounds for kernel methods-specifically those based on the RKHS norm and kernel trace-through a data-dependent kernel called the loss path kernel (LPK). Unlike static kernels such as NTK, the LPK captures the entire training trajectory, adapting to both data and optimization dynamics, leading to tighter and more informative generalization guarantees. Moreover, the bound highlights how the norm of the training loss gradients along the optimization trajectory influences the final generalization performance. The key technical ingredients in our proof combine stability analysis of gradient flow with uniform convergence via Rademacher complexity. Our bound recovers existing kernel regression bounds for overparameterized neural networks and shows the feature learning capability of neural networks compared to kernel methods. Numerical experiments on real-world datasets validate that our bounds correlate well with the true generalization gap.


Learning Overspecified Gaussian Mixtures Exponentially Fast with the EM Algorithm

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the convergence properties of the EM algorithm when applied to overspecified Gaussian mixture models -- that is, when the number of components in the fitted model exceeds that of the true underlying distribution. Focusing on a structured configuration where the component means are positioned at the vertices of a regular simplex and the mixture weights satisfy a non-degeneracy condition, we demonstrate that the population EM algorithm converges exponentially fast in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) distance. Our analysis leverages the strong convexity of the negative log-likelihood function in a neighborhood around the optimum and utilizes the Polyak-ลojasiewicz inequality to establish that an $ฮต$-accurate approximation is achievable in $O(\log(1/ฮต))$ iterations. Furthermore, we extend these results to a finite-sample setting by deriving explicit statistical convergence guarantees. Numerical experiments on synthetic datasets corroborate our theoretical findings, highlighting the dramatic acceleration in convergence compared to conventional sublinear rates. This work not only deepens the understanding of EM's behavior in overspecified settings but also offers practical insights into initialization strategies and model design for high-dimensional clustering and density estimation tasks.


On the performance of multi-fidelity and reduced-dimensional neural emulators for inference of physiologic boundary conditions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Solving inverse problems in cardiovascular modeling is particularly challenging due to the high computational cost of running high-fidelity simulations. In this work, we focus on Bayesian parameter estimation and explore different methods to reduce the computational cost of sampling from the posterior distribution by leveraging low-fidelity approximations. A common approach is to construct a surrogate model for the high-fidelity simulation itself. Another is to build a surrogate for the discrepancy between high- and low-fidelity models. This discrepancy, which is often easier to approximate, is modeled with either a fully connected neural network or a nonlinear dimensionality reduction technique that enables surrogate construction in a lower-dimensional space. A third possible approach is to treat the discrepancy between the high-fidelity and surrogate models as random noise and estimate its distribution using normalizing flows. This allows us to incorporate the approximation error into the Bayesian inverse problem by modifying the likelihood function. We validate five different methods which are variations of the above on analytical test cases by comparing them to posterior distributions derived solely from high-fidelity models, assessing both accuracy and computational cost. Finally, we demonstrate our approaches on two cardiovascular examples of increasing complexity: a lumped-parameter Windkessel model and a patient-specific three-dimensional anatomy.


SIMSHIFT: A Benchmark for Adapting Neural Surrogates to Distribution Shifts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural surrogates for Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) often suffer significant performance degradation when evaluated on unseen problem configurations, such as novel material types or structural dimensions. Meanwhile, Domain Adaptation (DA) techniques have been widely used in vision and language processing to generalize from limited information about unseen configurations. In this work, we address this gap through two focused contributions. First, we introduce SIMSHIFT, a novel benchmark dataset and evaluation suite composed of four industrial simulation tasks: hot rolling, sheet metal forming, electric motor design and heatsink design. Second, we extend established domain adaptation methods to state of the art neural surrogates and systematically evaluate them. These approaches use parametric descriptions and ground truth simulations from multiple source configurations, together with only parametric descriptions from target configurations. The goal is to accurately predict target simulations without access to ground truth simulation data. Extensive experiments on SIMSHIFT highlight the challenges of out of distribution neural surrogate modeling, demonstrate the potential of DA in simulation, and reveal open problems in achieving robust neural surrogates under distribution shifts in industrially relevant scenarios. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/psetinek/simshift


Auditory-Tactile Congruence for Synthesis of Adaptive Pain Expressions in RoboPatients

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Misdiagnosis can lead to delayed treatments and harm. Robotic patients offer a controlled way to train and evaluate clinicians in rare, subtle, or complex cases, reducing diagnostic errors. We present RoboPatient, a medical robotic simulator aimed at multimodal pain synthesis based on haptic and auditory feedback during palpation-based training scenarios. The robopatient functions as an adaptive intermediary, capable of synthesizing plausible pain expressions vocal and facial in response to tactile stimuli generated during palpation. Using an abdominal phantom, robopatient captures and processes haptic input via an internal palpation-to-pain mapping model. To evaluate perceptual congruence between palpation and the corresponding auditory output, we conducted a study involving 7680 trials across 20 participants, where they evaluated pain intensity through sound. Results show that amplitude and pitch significantly influence agreement with the robot's pain expressions, irrespective of pain sounds. Stronger palpation forces elicited stronger agreement, aligning with psychophysical patterns. The study revealed two key dimensions: pitch and amplitude are central to how people perceive pain sounds, with pitch being the most influential cue. These acoustic features shape how well the sound matches the applied force during palpation, impacting perceived realism. This approach lays the groundwork for high-fidelity robotic patients in clinical education and diagnostic simulation.


Brain-wide interpolation and conditioning of gene expression in the human brain using Implicit Neural Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the efficacy and utility of recent advances in non-local, non-linear image interpolation and extrapolation algorithms, specifically, ideas based on Implicit Neural Representations (INR), as a tool for analysis of spatial transcriptomics data. We seek to utilize the microarray gene expression data sparsely sampled in the healthy human brain, and produce fully resolved spatial maps of any given gene across the whole brain at a voxel-level resolution. To do so, we first obtained the 100 top AD risk genes, whose baseline spatial transcriptional profiles were obtained from the Allen Human Brain Atlas (AHBA). We adapted Implicit Neural Representation models so that the pipeline can produce robust voxel-resolution quantitative maps of all genes. We present a variety of experiments using interpolations obtained from Abagen as a baseline/reference.


Developing a Dyslexia Indicator Using Eye Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dyslexia, affecting an estimated 10% to 20% of the global population, significantly impairs learning capabilities, highlighting the need for innovative and accessible diagnostic methods. This paper investigates the effectiveness of eye-tracking technology combined with machine learning algorithms as a cost-effective alternative for early dyslexia detection. By analyzing general eye movement patterns, including prolonged fixation durations and erratic saccades, we proposed an enhanced solution for determining eye-tracking-based dyslexia features. A Random Forest Classifier was then employed to detect dyslexia, achieving an accuracy of 88.58\%. Additionally, hierarchical clustering methods were applied to identify varying severity levels of dyslexia. The analysis incorporates diverse methodologies across various populations and settings, demonstrating the potential of this technology to identify individuals with dyslexia, including those with borderline traits, through non-invasive means. Integrating eye-tracking with machine learning represents a significant advancement in the diagnostic process, offering a highly accurate and accessible method in clinical research.


Differentially Private Relational Learning with Entity-level Privacy Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning with relational and network-structured data is increasingly vital in sensitive domains where protecting the privacy of individual entities is paramount. Differential Privacy (DP) offers a principled approach for quantifying privacy risks, with DP-SGD emerging as a standard mechanism for private model training. However, directly applying DP-SGD to relational learning is challenging due to two key factors: (i) entities often participate in multiple relations, resulting in high and difficult-to-control sensitivity; and (ii) relational learning typically involves multi-stage, potentially coupled (interdependent) sampling procedures that make standard privacy amplification analyses inapplicable. This work presents a principled framework for relational learning with formal entity-level DP guarantees. We provide a rigorous sensitivity analysis and introduce an adaptive gradient clipping scheme that modulates clipping thresholds based on entity occurrence frequency. We also extend the privacy amplification results to a tractable subclass of coupled sampling, where the dependence arises only through sample sizes. These contributions lead to a tailored DP-SGD variant for relational data with provable privacy guarantees. Experiments on fine-tuning text encoders over text-attributed network-structured relational data demonstrate the strong utility-privacy trade-offs of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Graph-COM/Node_DP.