Statistical Learning
Look to Locate: Vision-Based Multisensory Navigation with 3-D Digital Maps for GNSS-Challenged Environments
Elmaghraby, Ola, Mounier, Eslam, de Araujo, Paulo Ricardo Marques, Noureldin, Aboelmagd
--In Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)- denied environments such as indoor parking structures or dense urban canyons, achieving accurate and robust vehicle positioning remains a significant challenge. This paper proposes a cost-effective, vision-based multi-sensor navigation system that integrates monocular depth estimation, semantic filtering, and visual map registration (VMR) with 3-D digital maps. Extensive testing in real-world indoor and outdoor driving scenarios demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed system, achieving sub-meter accuracy 92% indoors and more than 80% outdoors, with consistent horizontal positioning and heading average root mean-square errors of approximately 0.98 m and 1.25 Compared to the baselines examined, the proposed solution significantly reduced drift and improved robustness under various conditions, achieving positioning accuracy improvements of approximately 88% on average. This work highlights the potential of cost-effective monocular vision systems combined with 3D maps for scalable, GNSS-independent navigation in land vehicles. OSITIONING is a cornerstone of autonomous driving, enabling vehicles to plan, control, and make decisions [1]. While global navigation satellite system (GNSS) technologies provide high accuracy positioning capabilities in open-sky environments [2], they become unreliable or even denied in environments such as dense urban areas, tunnels, and underground parking [3]. To compensate for GNSS limitations, some approaches employ high-resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-based positioning systems [4] or integrate high-grade inertial navigation system (INS) [5]. Although these solutions can provide accurate and reliable positioning, their high cost hinders their practicality for consumer-level deployment. In contrast, cameras offer a cost-effective, lightweight, and widely available sensing modality. This research is supported by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) under grant numbers: RGPIN-2020-03900 and ALLRP-560898-20. Ola Elmaghraby and Paulo de Araujo are with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada (e-mail: ola.elmaghraby.a@queensu.ca;
A comparative analysis of machine learning algorithms for predicting probabilities of default
Cristescu, Adrian Iulian, Giordano, Matteo
Predicting the probability of default (PD) of prospective loans is a critical objective for financial institutions. In recent years, machine learning (ML) algorithms have achieved remarkable success across a wide variety of prediction tasks; yet, they remain relatively underutilised in credit risk analysis. This paper highlights the opportunities that ML algorithms offer to this field by comparing the performance of five predictive models-Random Forests, Decision Trees, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting and AdaBoost-to the predominantly used logistic regression, over a benchmark dataset from Scheule et al. (Credit Risk Analytics: The R Companion). Our findings underscore the strengths and weaknesses of each method, providing valuable insights into the most effective ML algorithms for PD prediction in the context of loan portfolios.
Leveraging Lightweight Generators for Memory Efficient Continual Learning
Lamers, Christiaan, Belbachir, Ahmed Nabil, Bรคck, Thomas, van Stein, Niki
Catastrophic forgetting can be trivially alleviated by keeping all data from previous tasks in memory. Therefore, minimizing the memory footprint while maximizing the amount of relevant information is crucial to the challenge of continual learning. This paper aims to decrease required memory for memory-based continuous learning algorithms. We explore the options of extracting a minimal amount of information, while maximally alleviating forgetting. We propose the usage of lightweight generators based on Singular Value Decomposition to enhance existing continual learning methods, such as A-GEM and Experience Replay. These generators need a minimal amount of memory while being maximally effective. They require no training time, just a single linear-time fitting step, and can capture a distribution effectively from a small number of data samples. Depending on the dataset and network architecture, our results show a significant increase in average accuracy compared to the original methods. Our method shows great potential in minimizing the memory footprint of memory-based continual learning algorithms.
Scaling Up Unbiased Search-based Symbolic Regression
Kahlmeyer, Paul, Giesen, Joachim, Habeck, Michael, Voigt, Henrik
In a regression task, a function is learned from labeled data to predict the labels at new data points. The goal is to achieve small prediction errors. In symbolic regression, the goal is more ambitious, namely, to learn an interpretable function that makes small prediction errors. This additional goal largely rules out the standard approach used in regression, that is, reducing the learning problem to learning parameters of an expansion of basis functions by optimization. Instead, symbolic regression methods search for a good solution in a space of symbolic expressions. To cope with the typically vast search space, most symbolic regression methods make implicit, or sometimes even explicit, assumptions about its structure. Here, we argue that the only obvious structure of the search space is that it contains small expressions, that is, expressions that can be decomposed into a few subexpressions. We show that systematically searching spaces of small expressions finds solutions that are more accurate and more robust against noise than those obtained by state-of-the-art symbolic regression methods. In particular, systematic search outperforms state-of-the-art symbolic regressors in terms of its ability to recover the true underlying symbolic expressions on established benchmark data sets.
Social Hatred: Efficient Multimodal Detection of Hatemongers
Marzea, Tom, Israeli, Abraham, Tsur, Oren
Automatic detection of online hate speech serves as a crucial step in the detoxification of the online discourse. Moreover, accurate classification can promote a better understanding of the proliferation of hate as a social phenomenon. While most prior work focus on the detection of hateful utterances, we argue that focusing on the user level is as important, albeit challenging. In this paper we consider a multimodal aggregative approach for the detection of hate-mongers, taking into account the potentially hateful texts, user activity, and the user network. Evaluating our method on three unique datasets X (Twitter), Gab, and Parler we show that processing a user's texts in her social context significantly improves the detection of hate mongers, compared to previously used text and graph-based methods. We offer comprehensive set of results obtained in different experimental settings as well as qualitative analysis of illustrative cases. Our method can be used to improve the classification of coded messages, dog-whistling, and racial gas-lighting, as well as to inform intervention measures. Moreover, we demonstrate that our multimodal approach performs well across very different content platforms and over large datasets and networks.
FAF: A Feature-Adaptive Framework for Few-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Ouyang, Pengpeng, Chen, Dong, Yang, Tong, Feng, Shuo, Jin, Zhao, Xu, Mingliang
Multi-task and few-shot time series forecasting tasks are commonly encountered in scenarios such as the launch of new products in different cities. However, traditional time series forecasting methods suffer from insufficient historical data, which stems from a disregard for the generalized and specific features among different tasks. For the aforementioned challenges, we propose the Feature-Adaptive Time Series Forecasting Framework (FAF), which consists of three key components: the Generalized Knowledge Module (GKM), the Task-Specific Module (TSM), and the Rank Module (RM). During training phase, the GKM is updated through a meta-learning mechanism that enables the model to extract generalized features across related tasks. Meanwhile, the TSM is trained to capture diverse local dynamics through multiple functional regions, each of which learns specific features from individual tasks. During testing phase, the RM dynamically selects the most relevant functional region from the TSM based on input sequence features, which is then combined with the generalized knowledge learned by the GKM to generate accurate forecasts. This design enables FAF to achieve robust and personalized forecasting even with sparse historical observations We evaluate FAF on five diverse real-world datasets under few-shot time series forecasting settings. Experimental results demonstrate that FAF consistently outperforms baselines that include three categories of time series forecasting methods. In particular, FAF achieves a 41.81\% improvement over the best baseline, iTransformer, on the CO$_2$ emissions dataset.
RCStat: A Statistical Framework for using Relative Contextualization in Transformers
Mahapatra, Debabrata, Agarwal, Shubham, Saxena, Apoorv, Mitra, Subrata
Prior work on input-token importance in auto-regressive transformers has relied on Softmax-normalized attention weights, which obscure the richer structure of pre-Softmax query-key logits. We introduce RCStat, a statistical framework that harnesses raw attention logits via Relative Contextualization (RC), a random variable measuring contextual alignment between token segments, and derive an efficient upper bound for RC. We demonstrate two applications: (i) Key-Value compression, where RC-based thresholds drive adaptive key-value eviction for substantial cache reduction with minimal quality loss; and (ii) Attribution, where RC yields higher-fidelity token-, sentence-, and chunk-level explanations than post-Softmax methods. Across question answering, summarization, and attribution benchmarks, RCStat achieves significant empirical gains, delivering state-of-the-art compression and attribution performance without any model retraining.
Dimension Reduction for Symbolic Regression
Kahlmeyer, Paul, Fischer, Markus, Giesen, Joachim
Solutions of symbolic regression problems are expressions that are composed of input variables and operators from a finite set of function symbols. One measure for evaluating symbolic regression algorithms is their ability to recover formulae, up to symbolic equivalence, from finite samples. Not unexpectedly, the recovery problem becomes harder when the formula gets more complex, that is, when the number of variables and operators gets larger. Variables in naturally occurring symbolic formulas often appear only in fixed combinations. This can be exploited in symbolic regression by substituting one new variable for the combination, effectively reducing the number of variables. However, finding valid substitutions is challenging. Here, we address this challenge by searching over the expression space of small substitutions and testing for validity. The validity test is reduced to a test of functional dependence. The resulting iterative dimension reduction procedure can be used with any symbolic regression approach. We show that it reliably identifies valid substitutions and significantly boosts the performance of different types of state-of-the-art symbolic regression algorithms.
GBGC: Efficient and Adaptive Graph Coarsening via Granular-ball Computing
Xia, Shuyin, Wang, Guan, Xu, Gaojie, Zhao, Sen, Wang, Guoyin
The objective of graph coarsening is to generate smaller, more manageable graphs while preserving key information of the original graph. Previous work were mainly based on the perspective of spectrum-preserving, using some predefined coarsening rules to make the eigenvalues of the Lapla-cian matrix of the original graph and the coarsened graph match as much as possible. However, they largely overlooked the fact that the original graph is composed of subregions at different levels of granularity, where highly connected and similar nodes should be more inclined to be aggregated together as nodes in the coarsened graph. By combining the multi-granularity characteristics of the graph structure, we can generate coarsened graph at the optimal granularity. To this end, inspired by the application of granular-ball computing in multi-granularity, we propose a new multi-granularity, efficient, and adaptive coarsening method via granular-ball (GBGC), which significantly improves the coarsening results and efficiency. Specifically, GBGC introduces an adaptive granular-ball graph refinement mechanism, which adaptively splits the original graph from coarse to fine into granular-balls of different sizes and optimal granularity, and constructs the coarsened graph using these granular-balls as supernodes. In addition, compared with other state-of-the-art graph coarsening methods, the processing speed of this method can be increased by tens to hundreds of times and has lower time complexity. The accuracy of GBGC is almost always higher than that of the original graph due to the good robustness and generalization of the granular-ball computing, so it has the potential to become a standard graph data preprocessing method. Corresponding Author Figure 1: The differences between traditional graph coarsening methods and our proposed method.
Private Model Personalization Revisited
Snedeker, Conor, Zhou, Xinyu, Bassily, Raef
We study model personalization under user-level differential privacy (DP) in the shared representation framework. In this problem, there are $n$ users whose data is statistically heterogeneous, and their optimal parameters share an unknown embedding $U^* \in\mathbb{R}^{d\times k}$ that maps the user parameters in $\mathbb{R}^d$ to low-dimensional representations in $\mathbb{R}^k$, where $k\ll d$. Our goal is to privately recover the shared embedding and the local low-dimensional representations with small excess risk in the federated setting. We propose a private, efficient federated learning algorithm to learn the shared embedding based on the FedRep algorithm in [CHM+21]. Unlike [CHM+21], our algorithm satisfies differential privacy, and our results hold for the case of noisy labels. In contrast to prior work on private model personalization [JRS+21], our utility guarantees hold under a larger class of users' distributions (sub-Gaussian instead of Gaussian distributions). Additionally, in natural parameter regimes, we improve the privacy error term in [JRS+21] by a factor of $\widetilde{O}(dk)$. Next, we consider the binary classification setting. We present an information-theoretic construction to privately learn the shared embedding and derive a margin-based accuracy guarantee that is independent of $d$. Our method utilizes the Johnson-Lindenstrauss transform to reduce the effective dimensions of the shared embedding and the users' data. This result shows that dimension-independent risk bounds are possible in this setting under a margin loss.